David Dunning discusses the Dunning-Kruger Effect + blindspots, especially in times of confusion.
It is more important than ever today to check your sources, not pass along misinformation + avoid getting sucked into the maelstrom.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dav…
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It is more important than ever today to check your sources, not pass along misinformation + avoid getting sucked into the maelstrom.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dav…
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When are people most vulnerable to the Dunning Kruger effect?
When they have an answer, believe they have expertise, or can spin a narrative.
Most People know when they are guessing, but its when you DONT KNOW you are guessing, you are most subject to Dunning-Kruger Effect.
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When they have an answer, believe they have expertise, or can spin a narrative.
Most People know when they are guessing, but its when you DONT KNOW you are guessing, you are most subject to Dunning-Kruger Effect.
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As many as 20% of people may be "Science Skeptical." Ignorance of science runs deep. Scientists collect data, use the scientific method to prove or disprove theories.
"Social proof" matters more to many people than actual evidence & data.
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"Social proof" matters more to many people than actual evidence & data.
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The world is filled with unknown unknowns, and worse yet, we really don't know what we don't know.
Especially when making predictions or future plans, we just don't pay attention to what we don't know.
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Especially when making predictions or future plans, we just don't pay attention to what we don't know.
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We can be aware of the obvious "Known unknowns."
The bigger challenge: "Unknown unknowns," or Hypocognition. These are the areas where we are oblivious to our own ignorance about the topics, but forge ahead anyway.
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The bigger challenge: "Unknown unknowns," or Hypocognition. These are the areas where we are oblivious to our own ignorance about the topics, but forge ahead anyway.
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To lots of people, the idea of hypocognition is still a novel concept.
On social networks, this manifests in spread of bad information. Just because something looks valid, does not mean it is if we don't verify it.
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On social networks, this manifests in spread of bad information. Just because something looks valid, does not mean it is if we don't verify it.
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What can you do to avoid misinformation on social networks?
Become better at recognizing your own strengths and weaknesses. Act like a Journalist, check sources laterally, validate ideas, make sure you understand who a given source is, track record, history, etc.
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Become better at recognizing your own strengths and weaknesses. Act like a Journalist, check sources laterally, validate ideas, make sure you understand who a given source is, track record, history, etc.
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People are very good at recognizing errors in others; we are filled w/ blind spots when it comes to our own fallibility.
We identify human fallibility in everyone else, but we believe ourselves are outside human nature.
Despite what our moms told us, we are not "special."
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We identify human fallibility in everyone else, but we believe ourselves are outside human nature.
Despite what our moms told us, we are not "special."
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If you want to learn more about hypocognition, metacognition, and why the unskilled are unaware of their own lack of skills, check out the work of Dunning. It is absolutely fascinating.
ritholtz.com/2020/03/mib-da…
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ritholtz.com/2020/03/mib-da…
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One last thing: You can follow Professor Dunning on Twitter! @daviddunning6
