Lots of people are talking about the Simpsons predicting coronavirus, but did you know the Simpsons made a coronavirus UK edition? [THREAD]
Some people might have worried that our PM was not the optimal leader to manage the response to a once-in-a-century global pandemic.
But he was able to learn from the best.
He studied carefully, and on February 11 was able to reassure us that, “People have every reason to be confident and calm about all that kind of thing… all the coronavirus, and any threats from disease."
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the strategic genius was working on a plan.
By the end of February, the UK had over 20 confirmed cases, and Italy had over 1000 confirmed cases. It was getting a bit harder not to notice we had a problem.
On March 2, Boris assured everyone that “this country is very, very well prepared .. we’ve also agreed a plan … wash your hands .. go about business as usual”.
But by March 16 the UK situation was sufficiently serious to warrant a daily briefing.
The Chief Scientific Advisor and Chief Medical Officer came along to provide completely independent expert advice.
The Chief Scientific Advisor told the nation that the UK was “four weeks behind” Italy (did it matter that anyone who looked at the numbers could see it was actually 2 weeks?)
And remember folks, the UK and Italy are totally different! (BBC, 13 Mar: “Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy”)
On Thursday 12 March the CSA and CMO announced their cunning plan for 60% of the population to get infected.
Yes, the old and the sick might die.
But keep in mind it’s a very mild virus.
Schools had to stay open for as long as possible, to assist the spread.
Another advisor, Prof Graham Medley, a modeller of infectious disease, was put on Newsnight to explain, "We're going to have to generate what we call herd immunity”. Let’s “have a nice big epidemic”! We can put all the old people in Scotland!
"Uh, sounds risky", said everyone else. "Won’t lots of people die if we follow this strategy?"
The modellers at Imperial College did some more sums and figured out the “mitigation” strategy would kill quarter of a million people.
So we’d been following the wrong strategy? And wasted 7 weeks that could’ve saved lives by following the suppression strategy? That’s bad, right? The editor of The Lancet couldn’t help saying “I told you so”.
But never fear! Everything was going according to plan.
Matt Hancock, minister for selling the NHS, insisted that herd immunity was never part of the plan: “Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy.”
Grant Shapps, Minister for Telling Whoppers, got in on the act: “the UK - I think I'm right in saying other than China and Italy - is carrying out more tests than any other country in the world, so we are ahead of the game"
It wasn’t just ministers being economical with the truth. “Asked whether the government's modeling was wrong, Sir Patrick said that the UK was not four weeks behind Italy, as previously suggested, but three.” (it was still two weeks)
Not to be outdone, there was the Chief Medical Officer explaining why they hadn’t closed schools or taken the other measures used in other countries: "If you do [social distancing] too early you get all the negatives but almost an immeasurable impact on the epidemic".
Sure, this goes against WHO advice, modelling, published papers, common sense, and the experience of China, Italy, etc. But OK.
Then the Astronomer Royal held a press briefing to tell the nation that the moon is made of cheese*
[* This one didn’t actually happen, yet]
[* This one didn’t actually happen, yet]
Still, everything was going according to plan. The Minister for Selling the NHS went on Twitter to ask if anyone could make some ventilators, as we’re a few short (twenty thousand).
You have to laugh, thought Boris as he announced “Operation Last Gasp”.
Finally, Boris suggested that maybe it would be a good idea for the schools to close (like everywhere else). The timing was just right, and everything was under control.
With the greatest regret, the PM suggested that people might even choose to avoid pubs soon. Which could only mean one thing.
The PM’s dad helpfully appeared on national morning TV to confirm that he’d still be going to the pub.
But the message was clear. Boris advised people to follow the advice “sedulously”. Some suggested that the PM wasn’t the best communicator for this job.
Meanwhile, the people actually dealing with the crisis pointed out that they hadn’t been given the protective gear they needed.
The Deputy CMO came to the next briefing to reassure us that, though there had been a problem, it was “completely resolved now”.
The PM stayed away from the daily briefing on Saturday so as to model social distancing and engage in some strict personal hygiene.
And the strategic genius has let it be known that he never favoured the mitigation strategy. We are following a suppression strategy. We have always been following a suppression strategy.
But it’s not all bad news. Last week, the government’s approval ratings were at their highest in a decade. Will Boris Johnson be a Churchill for the 21st century?
However, with people still not getting the social distancing message, and the death toll rising, there’s a serious danger -- might the public fall out of love with the jovial buffoon? This is no time for complacency! Boris will lockdown if he needs to!
Will Boris lock down the nation? What will become of the strategic genius? Will the chief scientific advisor beat the odds and make a reliable prediction? Stay tuned for more coronavirus capers next week ...
After a stressful 24 hours studying the data, considering the options, and replacing his circumlocutions with Anglo-Saxon zingers, the PM has a message for his people ...
