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1/ I'm glad, Sean, that our brief exchange has resulted in your great clarification of the issues, from which I have learned a lot. Two thoughts come immediately to mind: (1) It is a blessing that we can enjoy a division of labor between CI and statistics, the former generates
2/ causal estimands, the latter estimate them. Note though that the former is not totally oblivious to the type of data available. Different types of data will result in different estimands. eg.,experimental vs. observational, corrupted by missingness or by proxies or by
3/ differential selection etc. (2) I don't buy the mystification of "collecting adequate data". I am in the business of automating a scientist, so, if there is human judgement involved in the data collection task, we do not stop here and surrender it to humans. We see it as an
4/ invitation to ask: what knowledge allows you to decide that some data are "more adequate" than others. We then model that knowledge and automate the process. I strongly suspect that behind this piece of knowledge you'll find a causal model. I am willing to bet!! #Bookofwhy
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/ I beg to differ. For readers interested in my unbiased opinion, this review is ill-informed, ill-motivated and misleading. Bent on showing that "there is more to it than #Bookofwhy", sweating hard and unsuccessfully to find any such "more to it", the reviewers neglect to tell
2/ readers what they would miss not reading the book. The quote: "causal inquiry cannot be reduced to a mathematical exercise nor automatized." is truly indicative of the occult "more to it" agenda of the review, and its failure to appreciate how much has been automated already.
3/ Another unbiased opinion I have regarding "the particular value of randomized experiments". I challenge anyone to show me a clearer/deeper exposition of RCTs and their "particular value" than that given in #Bookofwhy ch. 4, The Skillful Interrogation of Nature, Why RCTs Work?
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
1/ Legality aside, I would assess how likely I am to encounter a complication never seen by the AI surgeon, which a human surgeon can handle through her knowledge of anatomy. It actually happened to me, when a famous surgeon quoted us 90% success record but, when asked
2/ how many cases like THAT have you seen? He said: "None. I have never seen a lung as bad a lung as this." We cancelled the surgery, and my wife is still alive. Remarkably, counterfactual logic permits us to bound the probability that a given patient will benefit from a given
3/ treatment, once we have a combination of both experimental and observational data. See tight bounds on PNS (prob. of necessary and sufficient causation) in ucla.in/2Nfphba. Thus, smart ML algorithms will be able to tell a patient how trustworthy they are. #Bookofwhy
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Judea Pearl
@yudapearl
I summarize this discussion thus: Progress in our
century amounts to building computational models of mental processes that have escaped scrutiny under slippery terms such as "design" "discovery" "background knowledge"
"familiarity" "fieldwork". etc. Saying "DAGs are not enough"
2/ produces no progress until one is prepared to propose a mathematical model for what IS enough. The IV criterion I presented is necessary for justification, so keep it in mind and teach it to natural experimentalists who should be jubilant seeing their IV's justified. 2/3
3/3 We should always be open to extensions and refinements, but mystification holds us back. We had enough of that in the 20th century. #Bookofwhy
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
When you have a favorite candidate, you are more inclined to cut them slack. So all the folks objecting to some of my characterizations of the candidates have to remember that they are candidates--not your family, not your friends. Stay objective--they must EARN your vote.
I don't have a candidate. I just have candidates I think are wrong for 2020, like the late-coming white guys who want to drag the Dems back to the right voters abandoned totally at midterms. These guys think women & POC don't have answers. Their message isn't very Democratric.
I will just keep on vetting and reminding folks that when you fall in love with politicians, it will always end in tears.
Keep a respectful distance so you can be sure of who they are and what they will do and read everything about them.
Trump must go.
Let's all agree on that.
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(((YousefMunayyer)))
@YousefMunayyer
There are many racist tropes that are sadly far too prevalent but rarely receive the sort of condemnation they deserve in the mainstream because of the extent to which this racism has been normalized....
Part of this is due to a lack of education around these issues. There is a far greater general understanding of what constitutes antisemitism than, say, anti-Palestinian racism.
It is a good thing that people are educated about antisemitism, and more education is needed, and much credit must go to the organized Jewish community which has emphasized the importance of this education.
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jt 結
@hobicannoli
yoonseok/sope au

where jock hoseok stands up for someone after he hears his team mates making homophobic jokes. little did he know it would be min yoongi, gsa president and hoseok’s secret crush

#SOPEBINGO
yoongi sits down at the table, the chair squeaking as he does. namjoon snorts, glances at yoongi’s tray. “dude you have got to eat more.” he pulls two sandwiches out of his lunch bag, hands one to the older. yoongi glares at him.
“I think my cardboard pasta will be able to hold me over, don’t you think?” there’s a slight chuckle in his voice as he takes the sandwich, nods a ‘thanks’ the younger. suddenly there’s a binder being dropped onto the table, taehyung appearing next to them.
Read 104 tweets
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Stu Cvrk
@STUinSD
Thread: An Old IC Guy Comments on the Bergdahl for Five Taliban Generals Swap

1. With recent rumors of legal actions surrounding the Clinton Foundation heating up, linkages to Benghazi and Bergdahl must be re-examined and not swept under the rug again, right @gowdy?
2. The Bergdahl-for-Taliban generals swap lit a fire under an old IC guy after a Benghazi summary and a report that the former Clinton Foundation CFO is spilling the beans both made the Internet rounds. How are the Clinton Foundation and the Bergdahl swap connected? Read on.
3. First, the Benghazi summary: <quote> Ambassador Stevens was sent to Benghazi to secretly retrieve US-made Stinger missiles that the State Dept had supplied to Ansar al Sharia in Libya WITHOUT Congressional oversight or permission.
Read 39 tweets
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Stu Cvrk
@STUinSD
Some thoughts on the passing scene….
1. Davos got me to thinking. Globalists exist. There's just too much anecdotal evidence to think otherwise. And a lot of them were there at Davos last week.
2. The EU was/is a test case and a laboratory for their cockamamie schemes. Think about the illegal alien invasions of France and Sweden and the obvious disconnects between Brussels policies versus the interests of average Europeans. This certainly isn’t nationalism.
3. Secret societies and conspiracies? Think Bilderbergs, Bretton Woods, Jekyll Island, etc. Whether they're real (again lots of anecdotal evidence & conspiracy theories are out there, but the wacky ones could be purposeful in order to "disprove" what's really behind the mask) …
Read 16 tweets
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Connor Ratliff
@connorratliff
Almost all of the Road Runner cartoons are available via the @BoomerangToons app.

I subscribed for $5 & decided I'm gonna watch & tweet about 'em all in chronological order, even the later, terrible ones, for which I have an irrational affection.

Here we go.
#BeepBeep
#MeepMeep
Boomerang lists them alphabetically not chronologically so Chuck Jones masterpieces sit side-by-side with 1960s atrocities (& later 'revival' attempts.)

I am going to start at the beginning. I will also be including Wile E. Coyote/Bugs Bunny & Ralph Wolf/Sam Sheepdog shorts, FYI
September 17, 1949: "Fast And Furry-ous"

Chuck Jones intended this short to be a parody of cat & mouse "chase" cartoons. Instead, he accidentally created the definitive chase cartoon series of all time.
Read 1189 tweets

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