It has a HUGE assumption:
"(2000 initial latent (E0) and undocumented infections (I0
u) on January 10" But only 41 known then.
So that's 50x known, huge leap.
to February 1 in Wuhan" but real-world data shows 11,791 confirmed. That's where they get their 86% number.
So were there 83,400 infections or less by then?