Thread by @ashwinmahesh

ISLANDS IN AN OCEAN OF SUFFERING

Every country is looking desperately for things that seem to work somewhere, hoping that they can quickly adopt lessons from there. But the strongest defenses a country can build cannot be put together in weeks, but takes decades to develop.

Despite their proximity to China, where the virus originated, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong seem to have the most lessons for us - these places have had only modest shut-downs so far, compared to the large brakes of others. And yet they have kept the number of infections low.

Japan is more populous than any European country, has numerous proximate links to China, and the world's oldest population - all stiff odds against the virus. And while China has used the force of its police state to contain the disease, Taiwan has done better without that force.

What's different? To my mind, a balance of state, market and society is helping some places at this crucial moment. An educated & informed society, a legitimate, competent & trusted government, and industry at world-leading standards - this is the combo that is holding the fort.

Japan's education system is among the best. There is wide-spread & vociferous media. Its govts are chosen by free & fair elections. They hire specialists rather than generalists unlike the general administration of our IAS. Successive govts have delivered a high quality of life.

Add to this, certain habits & practices of the Japanese that naturally protect them from infections. They greet each other without much contact, their public places are highly sanitised, & hand washing use of wipes are common habits. These are useful defenses against contagions.

The state and society are complemented powerfully by a competitive industry. Tokyo is far and different from every other major city and yet a world leader in many fields. One of the first options on the table to contain the virus is from a drug produced by a Japanese company.

Taiwan is a little behind in building this three-pronged strength. Its victories in society and governance are more recent but more robust, given the sharp contrast with China. And like Japan it too has tremendous capacity to manufacture the right meds as & when they are found.

But what about America and Europe? They too have a fair amount of the balance between state, market and society. They too have legitimate and competent governments, a free society and press, and strong industry. They should have been able to what Japan did. Why didn't they?

In the US, part of the answer is Trump; he has eroded the balance of power along many axes, privileging the market against both society & the state. In response to the pandemic, he has reposed faith in magically innovative solutions from industry, while the virus has raged.

The Europeans were caught late-footed, and are paying a huge price. One can only hope that their public health systems will withstand the tremendous pressures they face. The northern nations have shown more resilience, perhaps because their state capacities are greater.

No explanation of the differences between countries may be complete in itself. That said, it is a time to observe and learn from the range of efforts. Japan, Taiwan and a few other places - islands in an ocean of suffering - provide a part of the answer. We must pay heed.

... from my column for the Deccan Herald this weekend, which is a series that looks at the importance of the balance between state, market and society.
deccanherald.com/opinion/island…

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