Thread by @C_Barraud

🌎 As I repeated (bit.ly/2Vzbui8; bit.ly/2Ks0P2g; bit.ly/3awqL7l; bit.ly/3eMEWsn), economists have been too optimistic about global GDP prospects.

🇺🇸 #SPX | Analysts have been also too optimistic concerning earnings expectations (bit.ly/3bAcAj1).

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1253480079423705088

🇺🇸 #SPX | Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 Index’s 12-month forward earnings per share estimate has slumped 19% and is bound to deteriorate further as business and economic activity have slowed amid the coronavirus outbreak - Bloomberg

🇺🇸 #SPX | For CY 2020, analysts are projecting an earnings decline of -19.7% - Factset
*Link: bit.ly/35Iqgq0

➡ Analysts still look very optimistic.

🇺🇸 #SPX | More Than 1 in 3 S&P 500 Companies Have Withdrawn #EPS Guidance for 2020 - Factset
*Link: bit.ly/2A429Xi

🇺🇸 Record-High Cuts to S&P 500 EPS Estimates for Q2 2020 To Date - Factset
*Link: bit.ly/2TTzsDx

*For CY 2020, analysts are projecting an earnings decline of 21.1%.
➡ In my opinion, it still looks very optimistic.

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 It reinforces my views that:

*#China won't meet U.S. demands (main targets) for both 2020 and 2021.

*the consensus is too optimistic concerning U.S. GDP forecast for 2020 (-5.7%e)

*#SPX EPS estimates remained too high.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1267367816337948673

🇺🇸 This kind of surprise could spread to other companies in a context where analysts kept their forecasts almost unchanged over the last few weeks. Due to limited guidance, it seems that most of them only looked at stock prices and not fundamentals.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1276375580573925377