Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #taliban

Most recents (24)

In this issue of Survival: Global Politics & Strategy, @LaurelMillerICG brings some hard truths about Biden's decision to withdraw from #Afghanistan. Some highlights to follow... 1/n

tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.10…
"The ‘ending forever war’ slogan may be in vogue among critics of involvement in #Afghanistan, but it is hard to imagine that, had Biden believed that truly crucial goals were at stake, he would have declared that time was up simply because it was taking too long to achieve them"
"The problem was not that American involvement in the war was endless; it was that the US found itself unable to end its involvement on the terms that it preferred..." 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: @usairforce Acting Sec, John Roth, yesterday told Congress that for now the over-the-horizon capability to support #Afghanistan will be from the existing footprint that the USAF has in the region & I'm wondering if that means there haven't been any inroads made... 2/n
...w/potentially new locations to move US forces to provide that over-the-horizon capability?

MR. KIRBY: We already have an over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capability there & other parts of the world, & we are already using that OTH capability in #Afghanistan. 3/n
Read 18 tweets
In this thread, I will be tweeting about #NDS special units, its commanders and areas of responsibility.

The reason for this is that they (and other Army, Police Special Units) are now becoming the only force that Kabul Govt can rely upon in war against #Taliban. #Afghanistan Image
Lets start with 901 Unit which operates in #Kabul.

Its current commander is Qand Agha: Image
909 Unit is active in #Ghazni, and its current commander is Nasrullah (from Urgon of #Paktika): Image
Read 7 tweets
While Shah Mahmood Qureshi rubbishes talk of giving bases to the US , US and Pakistani officials hopeful of a basing agreement . Talks ongoing behind the scenes for a possible solution | Read 👇 nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/… Image
Imran Khan says Taliban's 'holy war' in #Afghanistan is justified by Islamic law ( @Jon_Boone | The Guardian Sun 14 Oct 2012) White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki and NSA Jake Sullivan clarify | Full Segment : |

#Pakistan #Taliban #USA #WaronTerror
Pakistan’s part PTI outs suspected CIA station chief in fury at drone strike | Reuters | NOV 27, 2013 | by Dylan Welch | White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki and NSA Jake Sullivan clarify | Full Segment |

#Pakistan #Taliban #USA #WaronTerror #AlQaeda
Read 7 tweets
I’ve gotten a lot of questions recently about how the #ANDSF might fare after the US withdraws from #Afghanistan. I’m going to put some thoughts on that in this THREAD. 1/n
First, a recap, as I’ve written about this before. In JAN, I published this net assessment of the #ANDSF vs the #Taliban, in which I concluded the latter would have a slight military advantage after US advisors left. 2/n ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s…
That conclusion was largely due to the #Taliban’s advantages of cohesion & financial self-sustainability, & not being as numerically outnumbered as most people think. But I acknowledged some key #ANDSF advantages, the most notable of which is air power. 3/n
Read 16 tweets
1. Most #Afghanistan analysis of late has been preoccupied with the strategic inroads being made by the #Taliban.

Meanwhile, #IS’s affiliate in #Afghanistan, #ISKP, has been experiencing a dramatic resurgence in the country, one that has gone almost entirely under the radar. Image
2. Yesterday, #ISKP reported 3 attacks, killing and injuring 44. The day before, it claimed to have killed/injured 20.

(While devastating, these ops are small compared to the 4 biggest of 2020, in which more people were killed than all other attacks combined since Jan '20.) Image
3. While #ISKP’s attacks in 2021 have so far been of a smaller scale than the biggest ops of last year, they are increasingly being targeted at civilians.

This graph shows how, since Jan '21, #ISKP has been walking back its war on the #ANDSF and focusing more on non-combatants. Image
Read 5 tweets
ICYMI, last week I published an article with @Diplomat_APAC titled “Will #Afghanistan Collapse When the US Withdraws?” Since the article is behind a paywall, I’ll summarize some of my main points in this THREAD. 1/n

thediplomat.com/2021/05/will-a…
For the article, I was asked to explore what might happen in #Afghanistan in the year after the US withdraws. To do so, I found it instructive to revisit the years immediately following the Soviet withdrawal & to compare/contrast to the situation today. 2/n
I’ve seen people making superficial comparisons of these two eras to predict impending doom, but a detailed comparison reveals both striking similarities and distinct differences between the two, which should inform our thinking about the future of #Afghanistan. 3/n
Read 31 tweets
Points on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: Gen Milley has recently mentioned that securing Kabul Airport will be essential for keeping embassy presence not just for the US but for other countries after the withdrawal is completed & that there could be an int'l force assembled to do that... 2/n
...I wondered whether @SecDef agrees w/this & whether he's been talking to @NATO partners or others about organizing such a force.

MR. KIRBY: Certainly the secdef recognizes the key hub that is the airport there in Kabul & the impact that will have... 3/n
Read 29 tweets
One of several problems with the @LongWarJournal @billroggio #Taliban Control Map is that it heavily relies on media reports that often cover the fall of a district to the Taliban, but NOT the recapture by the Afghan government—which leads to a more than distorted result.(1/10)
For example, Baghlan-e Markazi in Baghlan fell only briefly to the Taliban, but was recapture within less than a day although fighting is still under way. The same applies to Dahan-e Ghori in Baghlan and Farsi in Herat. (2/10)
Chapa Dara in Kunar is not fully Taliban-controlled; I was there in late March. Surkhrud and Khogyani in Nangarhar are also not fully Taliban-controlled; again, I have been in these districts recently. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Comments by @PentagonPresSec on #Afghanistan at yesterday's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: In @US4AfghanPeace's testimony today, he said that the withdrawal is proceeding w/o any sig interference from the #Taliban & that he expects that to cont to be the case. You said you assumed there would be attempts by the TB to interfere. Have you changed your assessment? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: We would agree that thus far, the retrograde continues at pace, the withdrawal continues at pace with nothing more than some minor harassing attacks that have had no impact, so we agree w/that assessment. We certainly hope that that remains the case, going forward. 3/n
Read 16 tweets
Today, the House Armed Services Committee held a full hearing for "An Update on #Afghanistan."

Witnesses were ASD David Helvey (OSD) & BGen Matt Trollinger (Joint Staff). It was a *long* hearing. I'll post a summary in this THREAD. 1/n
(If you'd like to watch the whole thing, here's the link: armedservices.house.gov/2021/5/full-co…. Note that what follows aren't quotes, but my paraphrases of their comments). 2/n
Chairman Smith opening remarks: This hearing will focus on key questions, such as: What is the process for US withdrawal from #Afghanistan & what’s our strategy going forward? Also, what our lessons learned from the past 20 years? 3/n
Read 87 tweets
State Department upset with the characterization of the lack of urgency on Special Immigrant Visas for the 1000s of Afghan interpreters, though for some reason they're refusing to ask DOD to help evacuate them before withdrawal is complete.

Not reassuring at all, as usual.
.@humeyra_pamuk: "you think you’re going to be able to process these visas past September 11th as well?"

State Department: "that is certainly our intention."

Amazing. Take your time, guys! Not like there's a deadline, literally, for these people.
Read 39 tweets
Die Taliban wüssten, dass Afghanistan „massiv auf internationale Hilfe finanziell angewiesen ist“. Darum würden sie „das, was an Rechten und demokratischen Standards geschaffen worden ist“ nicht wieder einkassieren, sagt @HeikoMaas.

Heute schlachten die #Taliban Schulmädchen ab.
„Wir versuchen, eine Kultur zu schaffen, in der Mädchen lesen, Fragen stellen und diskutieren, was sie lesen“, sagte ein NGO-Mitarbeiter bei der Eröffnung der neuen Schulbibliothek im Jahr 2017.

Die Rechnung ist ganz einfach: Verlassen wir Afghanistan, übernehmen die Taliban.
Vor der Machtübernahme der Taliban, werden Zehntausende sterben.
Dass @JoeBiden der Dummheit Donald Trumps folgt und die westlichen Führer der Dummheit Joe Bidens folgen und dieses Volk in den blutigen Abgrund fallen lassen, ist unverantwortlich.
Read 7 tweets
On Air Force One, @KJP46 tells reporters the drive-in rally this evening in #Georgia, which @POTUS is attending, is a @DNC event.
"This is a public health decision that will help curb addiction and save lives," says @KJP46 on new @US_FDA rule regarding menthol cigarettes.
On reported "directed energy attack" near The Ellipse, @KJP46 replies unexplained health incidents are being taken extremely seriously by the administration, which is still evaluating them. (See: cnn.com/2021/04/29/pol… )
Read 7 tweets
The debate contained within these tweets is a critical one: the question of to what extent the #Taliban will try to seize Kabul by force—as opposed to using force in support of a political track—is one I see many people grappling with here. 1/n
My view is that the #Taliban will press the mil front in 2022 but in a calibrated way—ie, they won’t “empty the madrassas” in a Tet style offensive, but will likely cont surrounding & pressuring provincial capitals. If the opportunity presents to seize 1/more, they’ll take it 2/n
But they know they can’t win militarily so long as the AAF/Commandos are in tact & the #ANDSF doesn’t fracture—neither of which are likely to happen so long as US security assistance $$ continues at scale. I assess it will until at least 2024. 3/n
Read 8 tweets
1. Last week, #Biden said #US troops would withdraw from #Afghanistan by 11 Sep. Critics say setting the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks as a deadline is a big propaganda win for the #Taliban.

Here's a thread exploring what the #Taliban has made of the announcement to date.
2. To do this, we tracked the impact of the (so far) one and only statement the #Taliban has made on the matter, in which it welcomes #Biden’s confirmation that the #US will pull out but condemns the fact that it is happening 6 months later than was agreed under #Trump.
3. True to form, the #Taliban published its response in five languages—Arabic, Dari, English, Pashto, and Urdu—with all versions emerging on 15 Apr. We plugged each of them into ExTrac’s social listening system to see how much of a splash they made in the subsequent seven days.
Read 9 tweets
Happening now: @CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie briefs Pentagon reports on #Afghanistan withdrawal

"I would advise the #Taliban we will be prepared to defend ourselves" he says
"We do plan to continue support to the Afghan military...it will just be more difficult" per @CENTCOM's Gen. McKenzie

"We intend to continue to support them" he adds "It will be a tough fight for the Afghans"
"It is our intention to bring the contractors out, the US contractors will come out" per @CENTCOM's Gen. McKenzie, saying planner looking at other options to support Afghan air force

"We may be able to work some remote, televised way to do that"
Read 20 tweets
Happening now: @CENTCOM Commander Gen Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie & @USAfricaCommand Commander Gen Stephen Townsend testify at SASC
.@CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie tells lawmakers he has all the tools he needs to complete the withdrawal from #Afghanistan
"We will lose the abilities we have now to see completely into #Afghanistan" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie, asked by @SenJackReed about impact of withdrawal on intel collection vs #alQaida #ISIS
Read 42 tweets
There's been no official communication from the government of #Russia regarding its potential expulsion of US diplomats from Moscow, says @StateDeptSpox.
#Russia disinformation campaign is designed to falsely blame #Ukraine for actions by the Kremlin, says @StateDeptSpox.
Ambassador Sullivan coming back from Moscow for consultations and to see his family, says @StateDeptSpox. "The ambassador has not been expelled" or ordered out of the country.
Read 4 tweets
Happening now: @CENTCOM Commander Gen Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie, @USAfricaCommand Commander Gen Stephen Townsend & @DeptofDefense Acting UnderSec Amanda Dory testify at the House Armed Services Committee
"In #Afghanistan, our mission has been preventing terrorist groups from using the country to threaten the interests & security of the UnitedStates, our allies & partners" acting Deputy UnderSec Dory tells lawmakers "After 2 decades...we have accomplished that mission"
"We are focused on working closely w/the Afghan gvt & our @NATO allies to responsibly conclude Operation resolute Support in #Afghanistan" per @CENTCOM Commander Gen McKenzie "This is my main effort, at present"
Read 53 tweets
'#Taliban as proxies in #Pakistan's endless war' is a cliché from the 2000s. It's outdated. Time to take stock of new realities in Pakistani military thinking because the #US #NATO & #Pakistan must prevent a new civil war in #Afghanistan. /1

No one can win in #Afghanistan. Not even the #Taliban. Some actors would love to see a permanent Afghan war of attrition that engulfs #America+#Pakistan+#Afghanistan. Make no mistake: a new #Islamabad+#WashingtonDC blame game will expedite such a war. /2

What's happening in #Afghanistan is by no means #Pakistan's proxy war. But it is the proxy war of multiple actors who want Afghanistan to be a permanent bleeding ground for #America #Pakistan #NATO. /3

macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/2021…
Read 8 tweets
OK, so, the latest #yarn from @DrIsaPantami boils down to this: In 2019, when he was glorifying the #Taliban & #AlQuaeda & wishing them victory & glorifying #Jihad he was young. Mind you, in 2019, Pantami was DG of @NITDANigeria

#PantamiIsATerrorist

dailytrust.com/breaking-panta… Image
It is impressive how we have travelled from the empty bluster of "I will rake you over the coals of crooked courts" to "I was a terrorist preacher before I was 13 yes old."

That is security under @MBuhari. What wld have happened if Pantami were to be #IPOB?

#PantamiIsATerrorist
#Watchout: In the next few days, @FMICNigeria, Lai Mohammed, will address a press conference in which he will tell us how glorifying Taliban & Al-Quaeda, calling for mass culling of "Infidels" & #WeepyPreachy #BokoHaram sermonising, is better than #IPOB.

#PantamiIsATerrorist Image
Read 9 tweets
I’ve been asked a number of times the past couple of days what I think of @joebiden’s announcement to withdraw all US troops from #Afghanistan by September. I haven’t had the time to write a proper op ed, so instead I’ll give you my thoughts in this THREAD. 1/n
My top-line take is this: What choice did @joebiden really have? If you examine his situation through the lenses of #Afghanistan, terrorism risk, credibility, domestic politics, & global US priorities, you’ll see the answer is “he had to do it.” 2/n
Let’s start w/#Afghanistan. Recognize first that the US isn’t in South Asia! We were always visiting, which means at some point, we would leave. Only Q has been when that would happen. That Q was answered in the US-#Taliban Agreement: We would leave by 1 May. 3/n
Read 22 tweets

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