Thread by @FlintGlobal

1. #COVID19 has overshadowed much of government's policy agenda including the response to #ClimateChange. Now, the green agenda will have to battle for prominence during the economic recovery phase. A short thread on the likelihood of a green recovery by @jbuckland13 and @Gilesyb

2. The impact of #COVID19 on global carbon emissions is one of the few silver linings to the current pandemic. As countries have gone into lockdown, emissions have fallen dramatically with early analysis putting us on course for the biggest fall on record. @IEA

3. However, the impact will be short lived. As measures are relaxed, business & industrial energy use will return and emissions will pick up. Politicians will focus on getting the economy motoring again, superseding #environmental interests in the short term

4. Focus has therefore shifted on to what next – can we deliver a green recovery? The political consensus around action on #climatechange is stronger than in 2008. The public are supportive – polling shows a majority want Govt to include action on climate change in recovery plans

5. #Merkel and #Macron have made clear that #climatechange remains a priority. The EU has reiterated its commitment to Europe becoming #carbonneutral by 2050. Financial institutions are signalling that they will continue to hold companies’ to account on disclosing climate risks

6. But will the rhetoric be backed up by action? The public will ultimately judge Govt on how it helps people through immediate financial hardship. The economic response will therefore be driven primarily by whatever measures will best create jobs and drive #economicgrowth

7. Govt will also be in a much weaker fiscal position, creating difficult trade-offs for any new #publicspending, with priority likely to go to key services such as social care. Green is therefore just one of the factors shaping the recovery, and not always the decisive one.

8. But Govt will be looking for measures that can hit both #environmental & economic objectives. It will also be looking to shape a renewed UK economic identity, improving the prospects for game-changing future technologies, like clean hydrogen & carbon capture, use and storage.

9. Longer-term, changes in consumer behaviour may prove positive. Remote working will increase. International business travel will fall. People may be more accepting of Govt intervening in their everyday lives, potentially making the shift to cleaner #energy sources easier. @IEA

10. However, behavioural changes may not necessarily be positive. Use of #publictransport is likely to fall, risking an increase in car usage. And the challenging politics of switching to clean energy supplies will return quickly if Government doesn’t tread carefully.

11. Ultimately, achieving #netzero by 2050 remains hugely challenging. Major changes to policy & #regulatoryframeworks will still be required. As will action on an international framework to ensure national recovery plans support climate action, making #COP26 even more important