Thread by @jseldin

NEW: @UN report on #Taliban casts doubt on ability of US-Taliban agreement to succeed

"There are divisions within the group [Taliban], which make compromise with its adversaries difficult, and its messaging remains hard-line" per UN Sanctions Monitoring Team

#Taliban "also appears well prepared for the 2020 fighting season and raising the tempo of its attacks on #Afghan government targets" per the @UN report

New @UN report sees problems due to #Taliban drug trafficking

"The scale of the problem remains huge and has been further complicated by a boom in methamphetamine production and trafficking" per report

NEW: @UN report find #alQaida still heavily influencing #Taliban

"The Taliban regularly consulted with Al-Qaida during negotiations w/the United States and offered guarantees that it would honour their historical ties"

More: "The senior leadership of #alQaida remains present in #Afghanistan, as well as hundreds of armed operatives, Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, and groups of foreign terrorist fighters aligned with the Taliban"

NEW: #ISIS-#Khorasan down to about 2,200 members in #Afghanistan, per new @UN report

"It remains capable of mounting attacks in various parts of the country, including Kabul" report warns

More: Some #ISIS-K attacks in #Kabul "may have arisen wholly or partly from a tactical accommodation w/the #Haqqani Network" per @UN report

New @UN report assesses despite setbacks #ISIS-#Khorasan presents potent threat

Biggest risk "may lie in its ability to present itself as the only defiant terror group in the country & attract new recruits & funding accordingly" per report

New @UN report says "number of foreign terrorist fighters in search of a purpose and livelihood in #Afghanistan...will require careful monitoring"

CT officials estimate there are 8-10,000 #foreignfighters in #Afghanistan

UN says that includes 6,500 from #Pakistan

MORE: "The #Taliban remain confident that they can take power by force" per @UN report "The risk exists that they will continue to find reasons to delay intra-Afghan negotiations as international forces supporting the Government of #Afghanistan continue to leave"

#Taliban assigned leader of its rapid reaction forces (red units) to be shadow governor of #Zabal in mid-February - "would seem to be a signal of aggressive Taliban intent for the 2020 fighting season" per @UN

#Talban divisions growing "more pronounced"

"Despite the public appearance of greater Taliban unity more recently, existing fault lines have deepened as a consequence of the negotiations with the United States and aspects of the agreement" per @UN

Some intel suggests that, due to growing divisions, #Taliban leadership "had not fully disclosed the details of the agreement, particularly any commitment to cut ties with #alQaida and foreign terrorist fighters, for fear of a backlash" per @UN

"Should conditions of the agreement w/the #UnitedStates become binding for the Taliban, it may prompt a split" per @UN report

"At least one group of senior Taliban had already formed a new group in opposition to any possible peace agreement...Hizb-i Vilayet Islami"

Other intelligence suggests "some #Taliban fighters had left the group after hearing accounts of the comfortable lifestyle of Taliban leaders living abroad" per @UN

#Taliban fighting force estimated at 55,000 to 85,000, per @UN

"Taliban facilitators & non-combatants could bring the total figure to 100,000" per report "It is clear that the Taliban are not struggling with respect to recruitment, funding, weapons or ammunition"

NEW: @UN report includes info on how much of #Afghanistan is under government or #Taliban control - similar data compiled by US, @ResoluteSupport has been withheld since 2019

voanews.com/south-central-…

NEW: "50 to 60 percent of Afghan territory was contested btw the #Taliban & government forces during the reporting period" per @UN

"21 districts currently reported to be under full Taliban control, down from between 25 & 30 districts in the previous reporting period"

"The continued goal of the #Taliban...to capture&hold a provincial capital remains difficult for the group given the continued presence of int'l military close air support" per @UN

"The sudden or unexpected withdrawal of such support would endanger several provinces"

Intelligence indicates #Taliban "appear to have strengthened their relationship with #alQaida rather than the opposite" per @UN report

"1 Member State reported that the regularity of mtgs btw alQaida seniors & the Taliban 'made any notion of a break btw the 2 mere fiction'"

Link between #Taliban, #alQaida described by one member states as " “one of deep personal ties (inclu thru marriage) and long-term sense of brotherhood" per @UN report

AQ network "providing advice, guidance and financial support" inclu w/Aug 2018 assault on #Ghazni City

Per @UN, #Taliban annual revenues range from $300 million to $1.5 billion per year

"While officials noted lower figures for 2019, they were careful to note that the Taliban used resources effectively and efficiently and were not experiencing a cash crisis" per report

#Taliban "thought to be expanding revenue streams through increased road taxation fees, now possible as the Taliban have expanded control over highways & many road networks in the north of #Afghanistan" per @UN

"In addition, the retaking of large poppy-cultivating areas in #Nangarhar was expected to counter financial losses" per @UN

#Taliban "able to levy taxes on almost all infrastructure, utilities, agriculture & social industry in areas under their control or influence"

"While heroin cultivation & production have provided the bulk of #Taliban revenue for many years, the emergence of #methamphetamine in #Afghanistan is giving impetus to a major new drug industry with significant profit margins" per @UN report

NEW: Drugs likely played a big role in #Taliban effort to eliminate #ISIS in #Nangarhar province

"The occupation by #ISIL-K of key smuggling routes in Nangarhar blocked access to traditional growing areas & routes used by Taliban-affiliated networks"

"Sources highlighted that the decrease in current seizures & interdictions likely showed that, in the absence of #ISIL-K, which opposed poppy cultivation, smuggling routes formerly used by the #Taliban were now back in use" per @UN report

re #ISIS-#Khorasan

For now, #ISIS-#Khorasan's financial reserves estimated to be in the “tens of thousands of dollars” per @UN report

Still, ISIS-K "continued to generate income at the local level through extortion, taxation & likely timber and mineral exploitation"

INTERESTING: #ISIS-#Khorsan, mainly relegated to remote parts of #Kunar province "reportedly still maintains limited communications with #ISIL core via satellite links" per @UN report

"Through foreign fighters, #ISIL-K had established contact with the new ISIL leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashmi al-#Qurashi, despite ISIL core playing a far lesser role in ISIL-K internal decision-making," per @UN intel sources

#ISIS-#Khorasan getting some help from the #Haqqqani|s

"Member States have commented that most attacks claimed by #ISIL-K demonstrated some degree of “involvement, facilitation or the provision of technical assistance” by the Haqqani Network" per @UN

Intel suggests #Haqqani help essential for #ISIS-K attacks in #Kabul, where #ISIS “lacked the capability to launch complex attacks in Kabul on its own” per member states in @UN report

#alQaida " is covertly active in 12 Afghan provinces" per the @UN report, adding it has "between 400 and 600 armed operatives"