1/. “The risk at 1 meter is about 10 to 30 times higher than at 2m.”
This was Prof Vallance speaking on 5 May saying #coronavirus spread is up to 30 times higher when someone is 1m away from an infected person than 2m away.
Ystdy the UK had 921 new #COVID19 cases & 280 deaths.
This was Prof Vallance speaking on 5 May saying #coronavirus spread is up to 30 times higher when someone is 1m away from an infected person than 2m away.
Ystdy the UK had 921 new #COVID19 cases & 280 deaths.
2/. Beijing shut down areas when there were 36 new cases.
The UK hasn't met of the govt's own 5 tests for easing lockdown & only meets 2 of WHO's 6 tests.
An Oxford Uni study of countries listed in order of readiness for easing coronavirus lockdown, puts UK at 191st out of 195.
The UK hasn't met of the govt's own 5 tests for easing lockdown & only meets 2 of WHO's 6 tests.
An Oxford Uni study of countries listed in order of readiness for easing coronavirus lockdown, puts UK at 191st out of 195.
3/. “I think it's extraordinarily risky. I don’t think anyone could believe, from the scientific point of view, that this is a wise move.”
Former CSA, Sir David King, thinks easing lockdown “too quickly" makes the risk of a second wave "very significant".
Former CSA, Sir David King, thinks easing lockdown “too quickly" makes the risk of a second wave "very significant".
4/. “Do you think the PM went against the will of his scientists?' @skynewssarah
“This is definitely a political decision.”
@Sir_David_King.
He points out that lifting lockdown too early doesn’t make sense from a scientific OR an economic perspective.
“This is definitely a political decision.”
@Sir_David_King.
He points out that lifting lockdown too early doesn’t make sense from a scientific OR an economic perspective.
5/. Alok Sharma just told BBC that the govt has met it’s 5 tests & that “we had almost 240,000 people tested on Monday”
Yesterday, @MattHancock said he didn’t have the data on how many people had been tested.
The UK doesn’t have a digital test, trace, isolate system in place.
Yesterday, @MattHancock said he didn’t have the data on how many people had been tested.
The UK doesn’t have a digital test, trace, isolate system in place.
6/. So what is the logic behind easing lockdown early?
Could it be the same logic that was behind the decisions not to screen at airports, not to ban public events in March, to delay lockdown etc.?
The logic of #HerdImmunity - of “taking it on the chin”!
Could it be the same logic that was behind the decisions not to screen at airports, not to ban public events in March, to delay lockdown etc.?
The logic of #HerdImmunity - of “taking it on the chin”!
7/. #Herdimmunity makes sense as an outcome NOT as a strategy...but on 12/3, briefed by No.10, @Peston wrote: “The strategy of the govt is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so we acquire herd immunity.”
Has this goal really changed?
Has this goal really changed?
8/. As well as costing hundreds of thousands of lives, #HerdImmunity would depend on people developing immunity to #COVID19, which is not certain.
Antibodies don’t equal immunity & immunity to other human coronaviruses (e.g SARS & MERS) is only temporary.
Antibodies don’t equal immunity & immunity to other human coronaviruses (e.g SARS & MERS) is only temporary.
9/. The govt deny #HerdImmunity was ever their strategy.
Many think it was, until the 16 March when new data emerged.
But UK lockdown was intended to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed rather than being part of a full suppression/elimination strategy.
Many think it was, until the 16 March when new data emerged.
But UK lockdown was intended to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed rather than being part of a full suppression/elimination strategy.
10/. The UK govt isn’t all alone.
Last month, @realDonaldTrump was asked if the US “just have to accept the idea that by reopening there will be more death?”
“We have to be warriors. We can't keep our country closed down for years,” he replied. #COVID19
Last month, @realDonaldTrump was asked if the US “just have to accept the idea that by reopening there will be more death?”
“We have to be warriors. We can't keep our country closed down for years,” he replied. #COVID19
11/. But the PM doesn’t talk of death. Instead he tells us “cautious optimism is palpable.”
On 3 Feb, he was optimistic too, warning against “medically irrational” reactions to #COVID19 that could “damage the economy.”
Was this #HerdImmunity strategy?
On 3 Feb, he was optimistic too, warning against “medically irrational” reactions to #COVID19 that could “damage the economy.”
Was this #HerdImmunity strategy?
12/. Now is not the time for blame.
It’s a time for honesty, for transparency and for unity.
There are massive decisions facing our country in the coming months.
We need sober leadship, responsible journalism & for govt to listen to all our top scientists.
#HerdImmunityScandal
It’s a time for honesty, for transparency and for unity.
There are massive decisions facing our country in the coming months.
We need sober leadship, responsible journalism & for govt to listen to all our top scientists.
#HerdImmunityScandal
13/. Lack of transparency means little hard proof of #HerdImmunity plans, but a leaked document shows on 23/3 Faculty – contracted with Palantir to build NHSX platform - proposed a simulation to assess the impact of “targeted herd immunity” (an oxymoron).
14/. If you'd like to find out more about the #HerdImmunityScandal, check out my long & intersecting threads or visit undercovid.org a new investigative & campaigning platform
Related scandals include
#CareHomeScandal
#AppScandal
#HomeCareScandal
Related scandals include
#CareHomeScandal
#AppScandal
#HomeCareScandal
15/. Govt suspects UK is experiencing 7,000 daily infections & that R rate might be higher than 1.
Leaked 18/6 @PHE_uk COVID Situation Report says "we cannot preclude R being above 1” in England.
It also estimates the daily infections at 7,000 not 1,346.
huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-coron…
Leaked 18/6 @PHE_uk COVID Situation Report says "we cannot preclude R being above 1” in England.
It also estimates the daily infections at 7,000 not 1,346.
huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-coron…
16/. "[This document] should be in the public domain. There’s nothing in it that justifies secrecy...The fact we have to ask if we can share these things is crazy. It’s even crazier we might be told no....PHE are unable to publish anything [without govt say so]." @HuffPost source
17/. Obtaining information from the govt is hard
Ministers fail to answer straightforward questions
SAGE minutes are withheld, redacted & posted late on weekends
Bodies like NHS & PHE, don't provide facts to parliamentary committees, let alone to media
Ministers fail to answer straightforward questions
SAGE minutes are withheld, redacted & posted late on weekends
Bodies like NHS & PHE, don't provide facts to parliamentary committees, let alone to media
18/. Today there were another 154 reported deaths from #coronavirus.
On the day that the UK finally locked down on 23 March, there were 102
UK Covid deaths.
Re: Tweet 17👆 @GregClarkMP could you tell us whether PHE have submitted the document they said they would, 3 months ago?
On the day that the UK finally locked down on 23 March, there were 102
UK Covid deaths.
Re: Tweet 17👆 @GregClarkMP could you tell us whether PHE have submitted the document they said they would, 3 months ago?
19/. Four months in, & we still don’t know the govt’s objective.
"Is the objective still to let #coronavirus flow through the population & just to stay within NHS capacity?" @devisridhar asks.
If so, that would explain the deadly #HerdImmunity strategy!
"Is the objective still to let #coronavirus flow through the population & just to stay within NHS capacity?" @devisridhar asks.
If so, that would explain the deadly #HerdImmunity strategy!
20/. In April, the govt changed the 5th test for easing lockdown from "ensuring any adjustments will not risk a second peak” to "adjustments will not overwhelm the NHS."
When @Jeremy_Hunt asked @uksciencechief why, he said: "I'm not sure I can tell you".
When @Jeremy_Hunt asked @uksciencechief why, he said: "I'm not sure I can tell you".
21/. That Patrick Vallance & no Minister has been able to tell us why this significant change was made, is extraordinary but unsurprising.
But we don’t actually need them to explain.
The answer is v clear.
The govt is pursuing a #HerdImmunity strategy.
But we don’t actually need them to explain.
The answer is v clear.
The govt is pursuing a #HerdImmunity strategy.
22/. The fact the govt never diverted from the #HerdImmunity strategy, makes the thinking behind their often inexplicable (in)actions, fall into place.
The bewildering multiplicity of scandals are all part of one single scandal: the #HerdImmunitScandal.
The bewildering multiplicity of scandals are all part of one single scandal: the #HerdImmunitScandal.
23/. UK isn’t alone in attempting a #HerdImmunity strategy.
Sweden was open about it & has a #COVID19 mortality rate 7x higher than rest of EU with cases rising 16x faster.
US & Brazil have a policy of “opening the economy”.
Dutch situation echoes UK.👇
Sweden was open about it & has a #COVID19 mortality rate 7x higher than rest of EU with cases rising 16x faster.
US & Brazil have a policy of “opening the economy”.
Dutch situation echoes UK.👇
24/. ONS figures released today show a slight increase in community transmission & that the downward trend has levelled off.
It shows only 1 in 1100 are estimated to be infected.
Ystdy, US had the highest single-day total of new infections. #BREAKING
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
It shows only 1 in 1100 are estimated to be infected.
Ystdy, US had the highest single-day total of new infections. #BREAKING
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
We shouldn’t read too much into these figures.
The study found only 14 positive cases in 25,000 tests & ONS says we "don't have evidence that the current trend is anything other than flat".
I fear we are not in the "dance phase" but rather back on the "mitigation" trajectory.
The study found only 14 positive cases in 25,000 tests & ONS says we "don't have evidence that the current trend is anything other than flat".
I fear we are not in the "dance phase" but rather back on the "mitigation" trajectory.
26/. Asked by @RichardBurgon why UK has the highest death rate in the world, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg suggests it could be to with the weather.
"Even things as simple as the weather may have influenced #coronavirus has spread, & so may the practices of individual cultures & societies.”
"Even things as simple as the weather may have influenced #coronavirus has spread, & so may the practices of individual cultures & societies.”
27/. Asked how many people are be being tested per day, @MattHancock said ystdy “We don’t have those data.”
The govt haven’t released the figures for more than a month.
Yet ministers seem happy to blurt out big numbers & tell us how well the UK is doing.
The govt haven’t released the figures for more than a month.
Yet ministers seem happy to blurt out big numbers & tell us how well the UK is doing.
28/. Italy’s health minister says @BorisJohnson told Italy’s PM on 13/3 that “he wants #herdimmunity.”
On 12/ 3, @peston wrote: “The strategy of the govt is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity.”
The govt didn’t correct him.
On 12/ 3, @peston wrote: “The strategy of the govt is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity.”
The govt didn’t correct him.
29/ The number of suspected coronavirus outbreaks in schools almost doubled last week, new Public Health England figures show.
There number of “acute respiratory outbreaks” in schools rose from 24 to 44 – 16 more outbreaks than were recorded at hospitals.
schoolsweek.co.uk/suspected-covi…
There number of “acute respiratory outbreaks” in schools rose from 24 to 44 – 16 more outbreaks than were recorded at hospitals.
schoolsweek.co.uk/suspected-covi…
30/. The UK has moved from 4th from bottom to 24th from bottom of a global league in tackling coronavirus.
The UK is now 155th out of 179 nations in the 2nd study by Oxford university’s Blavatnik School of Govt
The study looks at the WHO’s six tests.
metro.news/uk-near-bottom…
The UK is now 155th out of 179 nations in the 2nd study by Oxford university’s Blavatnik School of Govt
The study looks at the WHO’s six tests.
metro.news/uk-near-bottom…
31/. This visual shows how, over 5 months from 1 Jan, #Covid19 became more deadly than malaria (bigger killers eg heart disease, stroke etc aren’t included)
COVID cases are rising:
Today’s figures
9.8m cases
480K deaths
(By Tony Nickonchur & Gavin Wood)
COVID cases are rising:
Today’s figures
9.8m cases
480K deaths
(By Tony Nickonchur & Gavin Wood)
UK hardest hit of all G7 nations in the weeks leading up to early June, according to BBC.
England fared the worst in Europe, just above Spain. The research compared 11-week periods for each nation as the virus hit its peak in each country. @faisalislam bbc.com/news/business-…
England fared the worst in Europe, just above Spain. The research compared 11-week periods for each nation as the virus hit its peak in each country. @faisalislam bbc.com/news/business-…
33/. Up to 90% of new cases at local level are missing from the govt data
This means that the public - school governors, local businesses, journalists writing about the presence or absence of new outbreaks etc - are being deliberately fed misleading data
This means that the public - school governors, local businesses, journalists writing about the presence or absence of new outbreaks etc - are being deliberately fed misleading data
34/. It wasn’t Data Protection stopping testing info going to councils. The requirement wasn’t in the contract!
"The contract with Deloitte doesn’t require the company to report positive cases to PHE & local authorities."
@NadineDorries email to @stellacreasy via @justinmadders
"The contract with Deloitte doesn’t require the company to report positive cases to PHE & local authorities."
@NadineDorries email to @stellacreasy via @justinmadders
"He covers up crime with scandal & covers up malice with incompetence. They want to project an image of being inept, instead of as having a cruel & well-defined plan.”
@sarahkendzior on Trump’s admin.
Sound familiar?
All part of #HerdImmunityScandal.
@sarahkendzior on Trump’s admin.
Sound familiar?
All part of #HerdImmunityScandal.
36/. Failure to publish Pillar 2 data (public test results) & then covering it up is a scandal
Starmer says a week was lost b/c the local authority didn’t have the right data
@BorisJohnson claims Pillar 1 & 2 data was shared
The Mayor of Leicester only got it on Thursday #PMQs
Starmer says a week was lost b/c the local authority didn’t have the right data
@BorisJohnson claims Pillar 1 & 2 data was shared
The Mayor of Leicester only got it on Thursday #PMQs
37/. Deliberate failure to provide accurate data is not only scandalous but appears to be illegal.
Authorities are under legal obligation to immediately report “notifiable diseases”.
The statutory duty is here: “Notification of infectious diseases”.
gov.uk/guidance/notif…
Authorities are under legal obligation to immediately report “notifiable diseases”.
The statutory duty is here: “Notification of infectious diseases”.
gov.uk/guidance/notif…
38/. Like the PM, @KwasiKwarteng chooses not to give a straight answer on when Pillar 2 data was shared.
Like the PM, he’s rather talk about the success that UK has had(!!!)
“We have had a success in dealing with #coronavirus” he tells
@RachelReevesMP.
Like the PM, he’s rather talk about the success that UK has had(!!!)
“We have had a success in dealing with #coronavirus” he tells
@RachelReevesMP.
39/. This is from the govt’s own website on the testing data.
It seems that the Pillar 2 testing is where the problem is in identifying the number of people actually tested.
Was this also I something they forgot to put in the contract with Deloitte?
(via @justinmadders MP).
It seems that the Pillar 2 testing is where the problem is in identifying the number of people actually tested.
Was this also I something they forgot to put in the contract with Deloitte?
(via @justinmadders MP).
40/. The UK's statistics watchdog has recently criticised the govt twice over the trustworthiness of its #coronavirus data.
Today, the @StatsRegulation issued this statement which hints at their desire for "improved data in the public domain".
Push back?statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/covid-19-…
Today, the @StatsRegulation issued this statement which hints at their desire for "improved data in the public domain".
Push back?statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/covid-19-…
