Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Sep 1, 2020 21 tweets 21 min read Read on X
NEW: US making "limited progress" in degrading #ISIS #alQaida in #Africa, per @DoD_IG report

"In East Africa, #alShabaab moved freely & launched attacks in #Somalia & #Kenya...In the #Sahel & LakeChad regions, violence continued at high levels & expanded to new territories"
"In North #Africa, ISIS-#Libya resumed small-scale attacks in the southern desert region of #Libya" per @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell "The ongoing civil war...intensified as more foreign fighters and mercenaries deployed to Libya to fight on both sides of the conflict"
MORE: Spread of #COVID19 across #Africa "did not appear to slow VEO (violent extremist organizations) activity" per @DoD_IG O'Donnell "The pandemic exacerbated many of the underlying conditions that foster VEO growth, including economic and food insecurity"

#Africa #terrorism
.@DoD_IG notes differences btw @UN, @USAfricaCommand on #COVID19 impact

Per UN, #Sahel terrorists "capitalized on the virus to undermine state gvt authority through “unrelenting” attacks on national & int'l forces"

AFRICOM "did not observe any changes in extremist violence"
US non-military aid to #Africa hampered due to #coronavirus

"Several administrative hurdles, including additional layers of approval at the White House...slowed @USAID’s COVID19 programming" per @DoD_IG Image
Those also hurdles for @USAID included "restrictions on the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE) for overseas projects, & inconsistent guidance on the branding and marking of assistance" per @DoD_IG report
Pace of US airstrikes vs #alShabaab slowed in 2nd quarter of 2020 - @USAfricaCommand telling @DoD_IG it launched 7 airstrikes in #Somalia from April-June as opposed to 33 from January-March
.@USAfricaCommand says there have been a total of 46 airstrikes vs #alShabaab in #Somalia as of August 28
US counterterror ops in North #Africa "remained limited" from April-June, per @DoD_IG, noting @USAfricaCommand "has not had a physical presence in Libya since April 2019 due to the unpredictable security environment"
#ISIS attacks in May, June were first by the group in #Libya in more than a year, per @DoD_IG
Concerns that more #foreignfighters w/links to terror groups are fighting in #Libya|n cival war, tho "it is possible they were fighting for financial & personal reasons rather than for ideological motivation" per @DoD_IG, citing @USAfricaCommand
.@USAfricaCommand also noted "increasing reports of theft, sexual assault, and misconduct by #Syria|n fighters" per @DoD_IG
US now estimating there are +7,000 #Syria|n fighters in #Libya, per @DoD_IG

2,000 are getting support from #Russia, the rest sent by #Turkey

That's a slight increase from the abt 6,300 Syrian fighters US officials estimated were in Libya last quarter
#Russia supporting about 3,000 mercenaries in #Libya via the #Wagner Group - a slight increase from the 1st quarter of 2020, @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG
#Russia also providing "illicit financial support" to #Libya|n National Army (#LNA)
In #Somalia "#alShabaab attacks continued at historically high levels & remained steady during the quarter despite the COVID-19 pandemic" per @DoD_IG citing data from @ACLEDINFO

April-June: 608 violent incidents

January-March: 568 incidents
.@USAfricaCommand says #alShabaab #IED attacks down slightly, possibly due to presence of #AMISOM, #Somali forces along main supply routes in #Mogadishu, per @DoD_IG
#alShabaab force strength estimated to be between 5,000-10,000 fighters, per @DoD_IG citing both @USAfricaCommand & @DefenseIntel
.@USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG decrease in airstrikes vs #alShabaab for 2nd quarter of 2020 due to adverse weather patterns and resource allocation issues
US believes #Turkey-backed #Syria|n mercenaries "have bolstered" #Libya's Gvt of Nat'l Accord (#GNA) but warns they pose a long-term risk

The Turkish-backed Syrians are "inexperienced, uneducated, & motivated by promises of considerable salary" @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG
.@USAfricaCommand also warned of increased reports of theft, sexual assault & other misconduct-which could spark a backlash from the #Libya|n public

Several dozen military trainers from Sadat, a private Turkish military company responsible for training & supervision, per @DoD_IG

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More from @jseldin

Feb 13
ISIS-Somalia has dug in - operating out of Buur Dhexaad, described by the UN sanctions monitoring team as "a strategic base secured by natural caves and defensive structures safe from aerial and ground offensives"
ISIS-Somalia leader Abdul Qadir Mumin has also sought to limit unnecessary exposure while focusing on boosting the affiliate's finances thru increased extortion campaigns, per the UN report
Some of that money has been poured into advanced weaponry and drones

ISIS-Somalia has "employed unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and limited explosive deployment" per the UN. with an aim at "building suicide unmanned aerial vehicles"
Read 5 tweets
Feb 13
NEW: "Growing confidence" that the global leader of ISIS is Abdul Qadir Mumin, also the head of ISIS-Somalia, per new UN sanctions monitoring team report

"But doubts continued to be expressed by other Member States"
If Somalia's Mumin is ISIS leader Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, "it may signify a deliberate pivot towards a more decentralized operational structure, further from the core conflict zone" per the UN report
Of the 9 regional offices set up by ISIS, only 2 remain active in Africa:

- the al-Karrar office in Somalia, which serves as a key financial hub
- the al-Furqan office in Nigeria

per UN report
Read 14 tweets
Jan 30
HAPPENING NOW: Senate Intelligence Committee confirmation hearing for Tulsi Gabbard to serve as US Director of National Intelligence
"It’s fair to say Ms. Gabbard’s nomination has generated a bit more interest and attention than do most nominees before this committee" per Senate Committee Chairman, Tom Cotton
"But I want to stress that Ms. Gabbard has been and will be treated with the exact same respect, consideration, and professionalism that we have extended to every other nominee" per Cotton
Read 65 tweets
Jan 10
NEW: US intelligence agencies pushing back vs claims health ailments linked to Havana Syndrome were caused by a foreign adversary

"The intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement" per a US intelligence official
"5 elements of the intelligence community continue to assess that it's very unlikely of foreign actors responsible" per the US intelligence official

BUT 2 intelligence agencies have reevaluated - "shift from unlikely w/low confidence to roughly even chance with low confidence"
The US intelligence official, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, describe the shift in view about the possible involvement of foreign adversaries as "subtle" - "They have a low confidence in their judgments"
Read 9 tweets
Nov 20, 2024
NEW: Islamic State-Somalia getting boost from an "influx of foreign fighters"

A just-issued UN sanctions monitoring team report warns the foreign fighters "have expanded and enhanced the group’s capabilities against al-Shabaab"
Influx of foreign fighters to IS-Somalia " has coincided with the re-emergence of the Al-Karrar office as a
key administrative and financial hub for [ISIS] globally" per the UN report
IS-Somalia being led by "a cadre of former al-Shabaab
militants based in the Bari region of Puntland" per UN report

Abdirahman Fahiye Isse Mohamud is the emir of IS-Somalia, per report, "responsible for [ISIS] operations in Somalia"
Read 11 tweets
Nov 15, 2024
NEW: Senate Democrats ask @DeptofDefense @TheJusticeDept to look at Elon Musk's reported contact w/Russian officials - "determine whether this behavior should force a review of Mr. Musk’s
continued involvement in SpaceX’s varying contracts" w/the US government Image
Image
"Communications between Russian government officials and any individual with a security
clearance have the potential to put our security at risk" per @SenatorShaheen @SenJackReed

"We urge you to take appropriate action immediately"
Musk's alleged contacts with Russian officials was first reported by @WSJ, which cited current and former U.S., European and Russian officials
Read 5 tweets

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