Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Sep 1, 2020 21 tweets 21 min read Read on X
NEW: US making "limited progress" in degrading #ISIS #alQaida in #Africa, per @DoD_IG report

"In East Africa, #alShabaab moved freely & launched attacks in #Somalia & #Kenya...In the #Sahel & LakeChad regions, violence continued at high levels & expanded to new territories"
"In North #Africa, ISIS-#Libya resumed small-scale attacks in the southern desert region of #Libya" per @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell "The ongoing civil war...intensified as more foreign fighters and mercenaries deployed to Libya to fight on both sides of the conflict"
MORE: Spread of #COVID19 across #Africa "did not appear to slow VEO (violent extremist organizations) activity" per @DoD_IG O'Donnell "The pandemic exacerbated many of the underlying conditions that foster VEO growth, including economic and food insecurity"

#Africa #terrorism
.@DoD_IG notes differences btw @UN, @USAfricaCommand on #COVID19 impact

Per UN, #Sahel terrorists "capitalized on the virus to undermine state gvt authority through “unrelenting” attacks on national & int'l forces"

AFRICOM "did not observe any changes in extremist violence"
US non-military aid to #Africa hampered due to #coronavirus

"Several administrative hurdles, including additional layers of approval at the White House...slowed @USAID’s COVID19 programming" per @DoD_IG Image
Those also hurdles for @USAID included "restrictions on the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE) for overseas projects, & inconsistent guidance on the branding and marking of assistance" per @DoD_IG report
Pace of US airstrikes vs #alShabaab slowed in 2nd quarter of 2020 - @USAfricaCommand telling @DoD_IG it launched 7 airstrikes in #Somalia from April-June as opposed to 33 from January-March
.@USAfricaCommand says there have been a total of 46 airstrikes vs #alShabaab in #Somalia as of August 28
US counterterror ops in North #Africa "remained limited" from April-June, per @DoD_IG, noting @USAfricaCommand "has not had a physical presence in Libya since April 2019 due to the unpredictable security environment"
#ISIS attacks in May, June were first by the group in #Libya in more than a year, per @DoD_IG
Concerns that more #foreignfighters w/links to terror groups are fighting in #Libya|n cival war, tho "it is possible they were fighting for financial & personal reasons rather than for ideological motivation" per @DoD_IG, citing @USAfricaCommand
.@USAfricaCommand also noted "increasing reports of theft, sexual assault, and misconduct by #Syria|n fighters" per @DoD_IG
US now estimating there are +7,000 #Syria|n fighters in #Libya, per @DoD_IG

2,000 are getting support from #Russia, the rest sent by #Turkey

That's a slight increase from the abt 6,300 Syrian fighters US officials estimated were in Libya last quarter
#Russia supporting about 3,000 mercenaries in #Libya via the #Wagner Group - a slight increase from the 1st quarter of 2020, @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG
#Russia also providing "illicit financial support" to #Libya|n National Army (#LNA)
In #Somalia "#alShabaab attacks continued at historically high levels & remained steady during the quarter despite the COVID-19 pandemic" per @DoD_IG citing data from @ACLEDINFO

April-June: 608 violent incidents

January-March: 568 incidents
.@USAfricaCommand says #alShabaab #IED attacks down slightly, possibly due to presence of #AMISOM, #Somali forces along main supply routes in #Mogadishu, per @DoD_IG
#alShabaab force strength estimated to be between 5,000-10,000 fighters, per @DoD_IG citing both @USAfricaCommand & @DefenseIntel
.@USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG decrease in airstrikes vs #alShabaab for 2nd quarter of 2020 due to adverse weather patterns and resource allocation issues
US believes #Turkey-backed #Syria|n mercenaries "have bolstered" #Libya's Gvt of Nat'l Accord (#GNA) but warns they pose a long-term risk

The Turkish-backed Syrians are "inexperienced, uneducated, & motivated by promises of considerable salary" @USAfricaCommand tells @DoD_IG
.@USAfricaCommand also warned of increased reports of theft, sexual assault & other misconduct-which could spark a backlash from the #Libya|n public

Several dozen military trainers from Sadat, a private Turkish military company responsible for training & supervision, per @DoD_IG

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More from @jseldin

Mar 11
HAPPENING NOW - US intelligence chiefs testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines
@CIA Dir William Burns
@FBI Dir Christoper Wray
@NSAGov Dir Gen Timothy Haugh
@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Jeffrey Krause
@StateDept Asst Sec for Intel Brett Holmgren Image
Noting that the current era is as challenging as ever, with a wide variety of threats, Senate Intelligence Committee Chair @MarkWarner calls for "redefining what we think of" when it comes to national security Image
@MarkWarner "We are no even seeing the possibility of foreign adversaries weaponizing space" in ways that could be detrimental to US way of life, per @MarkWarner
Read 73 tweets
Feb 29
NEW: @FBI joins White House, Senate intelligence committee chair in sounding alarm about foreign interference in #Election2024

"This election cycle, the US will face more adversaries, moving at a faster pace & enabled by new technology
per Dir Christopher Wray at @INSAlliance
#ArtificialIntelligence advances "lowering the barrier to entry-making it easier for both more & less-sophisticated foreign adversaries to engage in malign influence" per @FBI's Wray

"Making foreign influence efforts by players old and&new more realistic & difficult to detect"
@FBI Where are US adversaries focused?

“The attack surface for the bad guys is the private sector” per @FBI's Wray "The intelligence that we need is in the hands of the private sector, often”
Read 10 tweets
Feb 25
NEW: US worried about #Russia seeking to interfere in #Election2024

"Of course there are concerns" White House Nat'l Security Adviser @JakeSullivan46 tells @MeetThePress
"There's plenty of reason to be concerned" per @JakeSullivan46

"There is a history here in presidential elections by the #Russia|n Federation, by its intelligence services" he says

"We are going to be vigilant"
Concerns about #Russia|n interference in #Election2024 "not about politics" per @JakeSullivan46

"This is about national security. It is about a foreign country, a foreign adversary seeking to manipulate the politics & democracy of the United States of America."
Read 14 tweets
Feb 6
NEW: US confirms #Houthis using "various #Iran|ian-origin missiles & unmanned aerial vehicles" in their attacks on shipping in the #RedSea #GulfofAden

Conclusion based on new analysis by @DefenseIntel
The assessment is based on information current as January 2024 - including a "comparative analysis of publicly available images of #Iran|ian missiles & UAVs to those displayed & employed by #Houthi forces in #Yemen to attack commercial shipping" per @DefenseIntel
US @DefenseIntel on #Iran|ian drones in #Houthi arsenal:
-Sayad (Sammad) - range of 1800km
-Shahed-136 - range of 2500km
-Waid-1 (version of the Shahed-131) - range of 900km Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 1
NEW: #alQaida expanding in #Afghanistan

AQ "established up to 8 new training camps in Afghanistan, including four in #Ghazni, #Laghman, #Parwan & #Uruzgan Provinces w/a new base to stockpile weaponry in the #Panjshir Valley" per new @UN report
The new #alQaida camps appear to be "conducting suicide bomber training for TTP [Tehrik-i-Taliban #Pakistan]" per the @UN report
Intelligence provided by @UN member states also notes #alQaida is operating madrasas in #Laghman, #Kunar, #Nangarhar, #Nuristan & #Parwan provinces

AQ also "maintains safe houses to facilitate the movement between #Afghanistan & the Islamic Republic of #Iran"
Read 16 tweets
Dec 11, 2023
NEW: @usairforce disciplines 15 Air National Guard members as a result of the so-called Discord intel leak this past April

Inspector General report cited lax inspections, lack of guidance & lack of supervision as contributing factors in the leaks by 21-year-old Jack Teixeira
"The IG investigation found individuals in Teixeira’s unit failed to take proper action after becoming aware of his intelligence-seeking activities..." per @usairforce statement
"...However, the investigation did not find evidence that members of Teixeira’s supervisory chain were aware of his alleged unauthorized disclosures" per @usairforce
Read 5 tweets

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