Thread by @MoriartyLab

Nov 15

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

•#Canada, provinces
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Longterm care, retirement homes
•Weekly, daily % changes (7-day avg)

Thread

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @CIHI_ICIS @OurWorldInData
/1

#COVID19 #CANADA Take-home 1

Wave 2 started later in Canada than peer countries BUT
•Deaths ↑ faster than peers (27% wkly)
•Cases ↑ 23% wkly
•Case fatality rate (CFR) ↑ 3.2% wkly

Worst death numbers, CFR in order
•#Quebec, #Manitoba, #Alberta, #Ontario
/2

#COVID19 #CANADA Take-home 2

LONGTERM CARE/RETIREMENT HOMES
•Deaths ↑ 10% wkly
•Cases ↑ 10% wkly

Worst death numbers, in order
•#Quebec, #Manitoba, #Ontario, #Alberta

Worst case numbers, in order
•Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba (deaths will follow)
/3

Take-home 3: Countries

#COVID19 DEATHS/100K (+% wkly growth), worst to best

SPA 26+19
USA 23+13
FRA 21+43
ITA 15+67
UK 15+40
#Quebec 11+25
#Manitoba 11+52
#CANADA 5+43
GER 4+58
#Alberta 4+34
#Ontario 4+24
#BritishColumbia 2+20
AUS 2+0
#Saskatchewan 1+40
JAP 1+11
SK <1+9
TAI 0

Take-home 4: Countries
#COVID19 CASES/100K (+% wkly growth) worst to best

🇫🇷2610+18
🇪🇸2352+13
🇺🇸1613+23
🇬🇧1472+21
🇮🇹1411+40
#Quebec 729+18
#Manitoba 715+40
🇩🇪656+31
#Alberta 599+27
🇨🇦448+23
#Ontario 369+23
#BritishColumbia 327+25
#Saskatchewan 277+50
🇯🇵48+17
🇰🇷25+9
🇦🇺18+6
🇹🇼1+0

Take-home 5: Countries

#COVID19 CFR (+% wkly growth), worst to best

#Manitoba 1.5+9
#Quebec 1.5+7
SK 1.5+<1
USA 1.4+<1
JAP 1.3<1
SPA 1.1+5
#CANADA 1.1+3
ITA 1.0+19
UK 1.0+16
#Ontario 1.0+<1
FRA 0.8+21
#Alberta 0.7+5
GER 0.6+20
#BritishColumbia 0.6+<1
#Saskatchewan 0.2+19
/6

Take-home 6: #COVID19 case fatality rates (CFR)

CFR already ↑ in #Canada, everywhere except BC

We shouldn’t see this ↑ so soon in Wave 2, when cases should ↑ faster than deaths

Wave 2 likely spreading quickly to more vulnerable people, including LTC/RHs
/7

Take-home 7: Longterm care, retirement homes

#COVID19 DEATHS/100K (+% wkly growth), worst to best

QC 27+6
#Canada (Wave 1): 14
Canada (Wave 2): 9+10
MB 7+62
ON 5+16
OECD countries (Wave 1): 5
AB 4+26
BC 1+8
SK 0+0

Note: for LTC/RH Wave 2 starts May 26
/8

Take-home 8: Longterm care, retirement homes

#COVID19 CASES/100K (+% wkly growth), worst to best

QC 144+6
Canada (Wave 2): 58+10
ON 49+14
AB 42+15
MB 41+39
#Canada (Wave 1): 14
BC 5+31
OECD countries (Wave 1): 5
SK <1+0

Note: for LTC/RH Wave 2 starts May 26
/9

Take-home 9: Longterm care, retirement homes

#COVID19 CFR (+% wkly growth), worst to best

BC 28+<1
QC 18+<1
MB 17+17
Canada (Wave 2): 15+<1
#Canada (Wave 1): 14
AB 11+10
ON 10+1
OECD countries (Wave 1): 5
SK 0+<1

Note: for LTC/RH Wave 2 starts May 26
/10

Take-home 10: What #Canadians must do NOW

•Stay home except for essential activities
•Socialize only with ppl under same roof
•Mask indoors (except at home)
•Mask outdoors within 2m of others
•Follow LOCAL public health guidance
•Install #COVID19 Alert app
/11

List of #Canadian #COVID19 LTC/RH deaths fr @NoLore
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Cdn LTC/RH cases, deaths @RyersonNIA Longterm Care COVID-19 Tracker
ltc-covid19-tracker.ca

Contact municipal, provincial, territorial and national leaders to advocate for the most vulnerable.

/fin