#Fed Beige Book:
👍Modest to moderate activity
👎Some regions slowing
👎Recovery incomplete
👎 Employment growth slowing (at best)
👎Labor supply issues
👍Outlooks remained positive
👎Optimism has waned
👎 Concerns: #Covid fear, lockdowns, fiscal policy cliffs
👍Modest inflation
Initial signs of financial sector stress and expectations of rising delinquencies:
"...deterioration of loan portfolios, particularly for commercial lending into the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. An increase in delinquencies in 2021 is more widely anticipated..."
"...more school & plant closings, & renewed fears of
infection, which have further aggravated labor supply problems, including absenteeism & attrition
Providing for childcare & virtual schooling was widely cited as a significant & growing issue for the workforce, esp. for women"
"In several Districts, firms feared that employment levels would **fall** over the winter before recovering further..."
The economy grew 7.4% (or, 33.1% annualized) in Q3 – recouping two thirds of the #Covid output loss – but it remains 3.5% smaller than at the end of 2019.
The strong #GDP performance gives a false impression of the economy’s true health.
Much of the Q3 gain came from carry-over effects from fast progress in May-July while real GDP remained down 2.9% y/y in Q3.
Comparing the Global Coronavirus Recession with the Global Financial Crisis is quite telling:
Despite the strong Q3 rebound, real 🇺🇸GDP is now where it was at the trough of the Great Recession.
(*I know Q4 2007 is the start of GFC, but doesn't change the levels much)
Mixed feeling from May #jobsreport: optimism, skepticism & anguish:
- Optimism as payrolls +2.5mn – largest increase on record.
- Skepticism as gain contrasts sharply w/ new unemployment benefit since April.
- Anguish as the cumulative 19.6mn job losses from GCR is 2* GFC
Encouraging 2.5mn job gains concentrated in:
- leisure and hospitality (+1.2mn)
> with food services & drinking place (+1.4mn) making up 1/2 total gains
- construction (+464k)
- health services (+312k)
- #retail trade (+368k)
- #manufacturing (+225k)
But, strains on government budgets & lock down effects were apparent with 585,000 government job losses mostly in local education employment (-310k)
Putting the #COVID19 shock in the context of US #recessions of the last 100 years
Our @OxfordEconomics baseline anticipates a gradual and uneven relaxation of social distancing measures through the summer such that #GDP and consumer spending are unlikely to return to their Q4 2019 level until mid-2021 – roughly 15-18 months after the initial #COVID19 shock.
The 2.1% #GDP print gives "optical illusion" of an economy chugging along at moderate 2% clip at end-2019, but composition of growth reveals softer picture.
More than 70% of Q4 advance came from temporary collapse in imports, business investment subdued & consumers + cautious
Average 2.3% GDP advance in 2019 is marginally weaker than 2.4% print in 2017 but this is another optical illusion as most recent 3 Qs mark economy’s worst performance since the 2016 slump.
Even momentum headed into 2020 is softer than the 2.3% y/y print would indicate
Consumer spending only +1.8% in Q4 as households exercised more caution in the face of elevated policy uncertainty and moderating income growth.
In 2020, cooler employment trends and lower income growth prospects will lead consumers to gently rein in spending