Thread by @H_Y_L

Mayor @doniveson warns Albertans not to flout Covid19 precautions just because the @Alberta_UCP MLAs & staff did. We refer to the impact from politicians' bad modelling of public health advisories as the #DominicCummingsEffect. It's measurable. It's dangerous.

https://twitter.com/doniveson/status/1346163224069111810

#CummingsEffect happens when the public stop adhering to public health messages after learning that a political figure personally flouted the same advice. It is a measurable danger during an epidemic. *This* is the real danger from the #UCPvacations. (2)
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

The effect is named for Dominic Cummings, an aide to the UK PM @BorisJohnson. Cummings & his family flouted health advisories & travelled from London to Durham. Both felt ill; later covid19 +ve. Their action shocked locked-down Brits, & scandal ensued (3) bbc.co.uk/news/uk-528111…

A measurable result of Cummings' sense of entitlement to flout public health advice from the gov't he represented, was a severe loss of trust in public health advice. Solidarity needed to ensure an effective lockdown & reduction in R-values was lost. (4) telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/2…

The #CummingsEffect happens when the public believes the message that "we're all in it together" is false; that the privations requested for the good of all are not adopted equitably, that politicians & other elites are getting special treatment. Loss of trust = a BIG problem (5)

When 1st exposed, Cummings' boss (UK PM) offered rationalizations, refused to sanction him. In short order, public outrage escalated. In classic British style, he became a pop-culture target, ridiculed by comics, new beer names, children's school plays, & more. (6)

But humour is not the key result from Cummings' action.
Research from the Uni College London's COVID-19 Social Study show clearly: Cummings' behaviour & the elites' insouciance undermined public confidence in the ability of gov't to handle the pandemic.(7) thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Alberta's #CummingsEffect is showing the same pattern as Britain. We are using similar outlets to express our disappointment: hashtags (#UCPvacations, #Alohagate), pop shows (@checkupcbc & @ryanjespersen), art (instagram.com/p/CJiJFM2g3CO/… ) & mocking (instagram.com/p/CJohBlegfnl/…). (8)

The researchers who identified the #CummingsEffect noted even a month after the event, Britons still held no confidence in their govt's pandemic health advising. At this crucial, crucial time of Alberta's --Canada's-- pandemic, we haven't time to waste a month of trust. (9)

Epidemiological modelling is predicting a 3rd Wave, worse than our current 2nd Wave, to hit at Easter. Some are calling for a Melbourne-style long-lockdown. Others (eg: @RobertGreenhill, @DFisman) are proposing a middle ground called #CanadianShield (10)

https://twitter.com/RobertGreenhill/status/1346263045656498183?s=20

This just is NOT the time for weak leadership. This is NOT the time for selfishness, incompetence, entitlement, nor, most importantly, failure by public figures to ardently **model** best practices. We do NOT need the #CummingsEffect to hamper our already momentous challenge (11)

As I've said, these are early days in Ab's reaction to political perfidy in the pandemic. We'll see if the outrage encoded in the #ResignKenney calls will be mollified by today's demotions & firings. Politics aside, poor @CMOH_Alberta & @AHS_media now have a huge challenge (12)

Health messaging has already been mixed, confusing, frustrating. Albertans already have pandemic-fatigue. @CMOH_Alberta's team now must overcome the potential for the worst of the #CummingsEffect. Can they?? They certainly did NOT need this 'gift' from their supposed allies (13).

Finally, some scholarly references on public health messaging, with #CummingsEffect relevance: (14/end).

scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=…