Thread by @gbponz

#ITALY Thread:
1. NOT passing meaningful reforms is the entry requirement for Italian politics;
2. The importance of the #RecoveryFund is wildly overstated, as is #EU's interest in Italian money going down the drain;(/)

https://twitter.com/galietti82/status/1351776798892290049

3. #Renzi with this crisis loses his representation in the Government coalition, but day to day is still the one who can have it breathe or die;
4. what would be #Mattarella's counter in a dialogue with #Conte to "Had he wanted it his vote would have been no"(/)

The last is the most important because there is a measure of "prisoner's dilemma" here. Renzi doesn't want to be seen, from the LEFT no less, as the one setting parliament for a popular vote the Right would win bigly;(/)

Conte has paralyzing parliament numbers, and doesn't want to go to elections, but neither wants any leftish force.. much more. His risk is a reshuffle leaving him out. In that case HE could be the new Renzi, withdrawing M5S support. (/)

Mattarella wants a snap election like I want to hear from my dentist that he's out of anesthetic. The whole Conte1/Conte2 freakish governments were built to insure a safe name for the Quirinale, coming from solid center left stock.(/)

Remember that avowedly #Salvini sunk Conte1 in order to GET snap elections. Then, #PD and #M5S, two parties which had sworn to never cooperate FORMED a Conte 2.
So the "good" alternatives for the establishment are: (/)

A. limping along until snap elections are no longer possible and vote a new Republic president from the "approved list". That's the central case, forget "reforms". The #EU never pushed on that to the point of breaking, Lagarde is puppeteering bonds, hunky dory;(/)

B. Some form of shuffle which keeps Conte in the high seat nonetheless: possible, but it's in a way a slightly more successful variant of A;
C. Finally, "the great white hope" enters, in that all the parties involved form a #Draghi unity government.(/)

This is of course on everyone's mind, and there are obstacles beyond Draghi's willingness. For one, to be watertight no meaningful party would be allowed to stay out.(/)

I hope for the best for my beleaguered Country, but at the extremes, Draghi could be a hyped up #Monti , a technically challenged "tax and spend" government living off the pension reform which was the Dini in the first place,(/)

OR, which is the unlikeliest of all things, actually DO something: that would NOT mean even writing a #RecoveryPlan , it would mean taking the hot knife to the obvious self inflicted Italian wounds and cautherize them.(/)

Imagine sending #Alitalia, #Atac, #MPS to the trash can, with many more state owned black holes on the chopping block. Radical administrative reform to make business easier, with a cruel "cost/benefit" analysis.(/)

The problem is not that this won't happen (it won't); the problem is that the axe doesn't fall equally across the political spectrum. My gut feeling is that a good part of the #PD electorate, the main beneficiary of wayward spending and ruling, would suffer.(/)

So, in conclusion: Don't hold your breath about either significant policy changes, new governments, and above all reform. the political preconditions are simply not there.
@nglinsman @jeuasommenulle @amlivemon @Halsrethink @RobertMCutler