'Cluster trees' are the way we refer to the meta-clusters, if you like, made up of sub-clusters and outbreaks across primary, secondary and tertiary locations, as well as household and social contacts linked to these.
Here is part of the Crossroads cluster tree.
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And here is part of the Thai Rock (Wetherill Park) cluster tree.
In both, we can see the spike of transmissions from the primary location and their immediate households / social contacts, then the trickling outwards.
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In contrast, the Sydney CBD cluster had highly dispersed spread extending to at least 24 transmission scenarios.
Most remote appeared to be contacts linked to tertiary location - 4 deg of separation. E.g. City Tattersalls gym > Bus X39 > Physiotherapy > related contacts.
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Another neat thing about bringing the data together is you can compare unique transmission points across clusters, giving better perspective / context.
E.g. Potts Point cluster does not appear much larger than Berala but vast majority caught it directly at the Apollo.
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Clusters are also tabled based on final count and initial location type.
We finally have the history of the 14-day avg for metro and regional #CovidVic .
Now we can see the curve. Think it rose quickly? It appears to have fallen even faster. Really started to fall away three weeks ago. Frustrating shallowing now. Keep going Vic!
Here it is for regional. The 14-day avg peaked at 31.3 cases / day one month ago.
(Data note - we had to wait for @VicGovDHHS to provide all this b/c the raw data aren't published. Big thanks to @migga@covidliveau for passing it onto me! <3 )
3/5. Here is the other key roadmap trigger - total number of cases with an unknown source in the last two weeks. (Note these figures are delayed by a few days). Metro goal = 5. Regional goal = 0.
2. Avg. daily cases in regional Victoria. Goal: green line going for gold. (<5 / day, 14-day trailing avg).
3. Community spread (orange) + still under investigation (pink line).
*Metro Step 2 contingent on these*. Metro Step 3 may start with <5 unknowns in last 2 weeks. Regional Step 3 may start with 0 unknowns in regional VIC (tho geo data re community spread not provided).
2/8 - The site now has charts for tests / day (national and state / territories ) but this analysis compares 5-day average of tests (pink bars) with new confirmed cases (black line) | covid19data.com.au/testing
3/8 - The daily confirmed cases each day is the key graph atm.
I pulled some testing data from other countries. There are a stack of caveats here b/c of the different ways countries test and report, but here's what I found ... 2/10
We all know South Korea (blue line) is the gold standard - expansive and consistent. Germany (brown line) is another leader now. And the USA (green line) has a lot of patchy data but is in the midst of a massive push. (UK is lower - more on that another time). 3/10
Thread. 1/12. Let’s talk about transmission sources. The growth of #COVID19 in Australia appears to have slowed with fewer confirmed cases announced for the last 3 days (yes, let's talk testing and 3-day averages soon).
2/12. Today was just over 2 weeks since the fed govt announced travellers arriving in Aus had to self-isolate for 14 days. And it was about 1.5 weeks since borders closed to non-residents and non-citizens. So we’re probably seeing these policies start to bite. #auspol
3/12. So the question is - how many of the new confirmed cases each day are linked to OS-travel, and how many are community transmissions?
Thread. One of the first notable things we saw after collecting / visualising #Covid_19australia cases was this chart showing travellers from USA brought the most #COVID_19 cases into Aus (below). Today I added cruise ships to that chart and this is what happened ...
The purple line is cases linked to cruise ships. It dwarfs any other region.
Caveat: many govts have stopped releasing travel details of cases so data re countries isn't complete and exacerbates the difference. But I believe still worth sharing as hints at the scale of the issue.
We've just heard a 69-year-old man in Toowoomba QLD has died after contracting COVID-19 on board a Royal Caribbean cruise ship. Feeling acutely aware of the people and families these numbers represent right now and sending deepest condolences to his family😓