Thread by @Jihad_Analytics

[THREAD] 1/ Over the past year, the Islamic State claimed 2767 military operations. The overwhelming majority of these attacks targeted Sunni Muslims, although the group never described them as such. 40 attacks were against Shia civilians. 34 attacks against Christians/churches.

2/ Detail about the methodology: I gathered the data from the 53 issues of IS weekly magazine al-Naba’ published in 2020 (cf. the front page of the issue 219). For every single claimed attack, I analysed the following information: target, weapons used, spoils of war, geolocation.

3/ The first finding is that IS was a bit less active in 2020 than in 2019: - 423 military operations. #Iraq was in the first place. #ISWAP and to a lesser extent #ISCAP were on the rise and regularly on the front page of al-Naba'. #ISKP and IS in East Asia were much less active.

4/ On average #IS claimed 53 military operations per week. Three peaks in the group’ attacks: during the holy month of Ramadân (April 23-May 23), and their two military campaigns: ghazwat al-‘Istinzâf (April 24-May 27; June 5-August 5) and ghazwat Labbû al-Nidâ’ (October 19-29).

5/ Even if the group tends to overstate the number of casualties, it is interesting to note that, while IS remained the most active in #Iraq, the group’s attacks proportionally caused much more casualties in #Nigeria, #Afghanistan, #BurkinaFaso and #Mozambique.

6/ With respect to weapons, IS claimed it widely used IEDs, far ahead of machine guns, sniper rifles, mortar shells and rockets. Very few attacks with (S)VBIEDs. Gone is the time when IS controlled territories and relied on dozens of suicide bombers. Graph here on Sinai #Egypt.

7/ IS claimed attacks were generally low-scale and focused on rural areas where the group provokes a feeling of insecurity and presents itself as as a guarantor of stability. See here a perfect example with the percentage of cities and villages targeted by the group in #Iraq.

8/ IS claimed its first attacks against al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in #BurkinaFaso and #Mali. Much more attacks against #AQIM than against Burkinabe, French and Malian forces. In contrast to the previous year, IS in #Yemen only claimed two attacks against #AQAP (54 in 2019).

9/ Key takeaways:

• The Islamic State remained a serious threat in 2020 with 2767 claimed attacks in 28 countries.
• IS activity in Nigeria was on the rise.
• First IS claimed attacks against AQIM.
• A majority of low-scale attacks that were conducted in rural areas.

[END]