1/ I'm looking for science. Subject:
How many #TP7 is -0.1 R, given I?
TP7 = Self-tests p person p wk
I = Incidence (p 100k/7d)
As in: If I=100 and R=1,05, how many TP7 are needed to lower R by 10% to 9,945? @DrEricDing @Karl_Lauterbach @kakape @c_drosten @henrikstreeck
How many #TP7 is -0.1 R, given I?
TP7 = Self-tests p person p wk
I = Incidence (p 100k/7d)
As in: If I=100 and R=1,05, how many TP7 are needed to lower R by 10% to 9,945? @DrEricDing @Karl_Lauterbach @kakape @c_drosten @henrikstreeck
2/ Or, different angle:
If I spend 1 (1 TP7) what % of *I* will I extract from the infecting population?
How many % of those did already infect someone?
How many % can we expect to be false negatives?
By how much does resulting carelessness decrease the effectiveness?
If I spend 1 (1 TP7) what % of *I* will I extract from the infecting population?
How many % of those did already infect someone?
How many % can we expect to be false negatives?
By how much does resulting carelessness decrease the effectiveness?
3/ .
Hypotheses times:
H1: There is an X that is
1 TP7 / X = 10%-Reduction of R
H2: There is an Y that is
I / Y= No. of PT7 you need for 10% lower R
Hypotheses times:
H1: There is an X that is
1 TP7 / X = 10%-Reduction of R
H2: There is an Y that is
I / Y= No. of PT7 you need for 10% lower R
4/ H3: The values for X and Y are log functions that have some optimal pareto-optimal cost/benefit-space @CorneliusRoemer @marcusroscher
@risklayer @BNONews
@risklayer @BNONews
5/ Hypotheses times pt 2!
H4: We can compare costs of lockdown effects measured in ability to reduce R by X%, and a certain number of TP7 that also reduces R by X%.
H4: We can compare costs of lockdown effects measured in ability to reduce R by X%, and a certain number of TP7 that also reduces R by X%.
6/ .
Questions time!
Q1: Do we have any data on areas that were heavily tested and corresponding control areas that were not, and do we have comparative Rs for that timeframe?
Questions time!
Q1: Do we have any data on areas that were heavily tested and corresponding control areas that were not, and do we have comparative Rs for that timeframe?
7/ Q2: What reduces the effectiveness of TP7, as in 'too many tests for one' and 'too few for another' person?
Q3: What's the influence of sensitivity and specificity of the tests used to perform TP7-measures on X and Y?
Q3: What's the influence of sensitivity and specificity of the tests used to perform TP7-measures on X and Y?
8/ Q4: What's an unexpected negative externality we encounter when going for 2 TP7 or even 3 TP7?
Q5: What's the number of evenly distributed TP7 to ensure a non-infection with the same effectiveness as a mask?
Q5: What's the number of evenly distributed TP7 to ensure a non-infection with the same effectiveness as a mask?
9/ Hypothesis 5: There is a number W of TP7 if they are used in regular intervals that have the same effectiveness to prevent infections like #FFP2-Masks, and that the TP7 are slightly more expensive.
10/ Q6: At what scale do we need to produce TP7 to enjoy effects of scale and reduce the price to 1€?
Q7: What is the effect of giving the same number of tests away for free or for 1€ or 2€ respectively?
Q7: What is the effect of giving the same number of tests away for free or for 1€ or 2€ respectively?
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