Thread by @DesoGames

NEW RESEARCH!

This time, going after $ARKK - Well, the lot of em.

I heard that #Cathiewood had obtained a large amount of the float of some Illiquid stocks, and i wanted to see how big the problem was.

And i found out this woman has no clue what she's investing in. Thread 👇

So what i did;

Courtesy of arktrack.com and seekingalpha.com, i went through $ARKK's most illiquid names, to see how difficult it would be to liquidate those positions - AND to see if the companies are valued anywhere near correctly.

So i looked at some stats.

I looked at shares per company and the float, then calculated how much of that float ARK has across all funds (using the "individual stocks" tab on the site).

That's necessary because *multiple ARK funds own ALL of them!*

Also looked at 3month and 7day average volume.

For nigh all - 7D volume is well below 3M volume, and thus, liquidity is scarcer now then before.

And i looked at some value stats: Market cap (M.C.), Price to book (P/B), Debt to equity (DtE) and especially Net Income. (N.I.)

Stuff's gotta make money or not lose too much.

Also, interesting tidbit:

I added value of ARK's holdings vs total market cap of companies, and alot of the times it lines up! But alot of the times, it does not.

Think it might be a good indicator of when Cathie overpaid,"got in early" or made even on her investment.

Finally, i added a few comments from my own analysis beyond these numbers (which you guys know you've seen me stream) as to why the company's bad.

Oh, they're bad. High risk moonshots, the lot. I haven't gone through quarterlies, so i'm not up to date on drug trials.

But i know my financial stats, and i know what - as a value investor - i wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole.

Also i added short interest (S.I.) to see what the market thinks of the stock. Hint: It's about as high as my stoned ass. On ALOT of these stocks.

Shall we begin?

CERUS corp - 170,79m Shares/89,57% float
23,383,694 ARKK/ARKG - 15,29% of float
$143,34m value - 1,05B M.C. - 13,65% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 1,503,869
Avg.Vol. 3M - 2,277,040
P/B - 9,83 / 64,44% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$61,3M
2020 N.I.: -$58,1M (sideways 👉)
9,04% S.I.

Syros pharmaceuticals inc - 61,64M shares/91,31% float
6,757,003 ARKK/ARKG - 12,00% of float
$44,12m value - 392,03m M.C. - 11,25% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 678,479
Avg.Vol. 3M - 762,985
P/B - 3,95 / 73,15% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$47,7M
2020 N.I.: -$84,0M (declining 👇)
8,67% S.I.

Compugen LTD - 83,86m shares/99,91% float
13,504,150 ARKK/ARKG - 16,10% of float
$113,70m value - 704,56m M.C. - 16,13% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 1,068,036
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,457,003
P/B - 5,74 - 2,64% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$31,5M
2020 N.I.: -$29,7M (no foreign/any sales)
7,72% S.I.

Berkeley lights inc - 66,28m shares/59,23% float
5,304,092 ARKK/ARKG - 13,51% of float
$250,57m value - 3,16B M.C. - 7,92% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 740,729
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,219,118
P/B - 12,55 - 15,4% DtE
2018 N.I.: -$26,5M
2020 N.I.: -$43,3M
(net cash 233m total ass. 299m)
7,24% S.I.

Stratasys ltd - 64,59m shares/98,5% float
6,902,366 ARKK/ARKQ - 10,84% of float
164,21m value - 1,54B M.C. - 10.66% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 1,102,966
Avg.Vol. 3M - 2,606,630
P/B - 1,7 - 2,88% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$77,6M
2020 N.I.: -$444,1M
(Massive 2020 writedown, revenues 👇)
8,71% S.I.

Nanostring Technologies - 44,58m shares/99,26% float
3,305,634 ARKK/ARKG - 7,47% of float
$232,49m value - $3,08B M.C. - 7.54% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 533,626
Avg.Vol. 3M - 658,674
P/B - 10 - 66,16% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$47,1M
2020 N.I.: -$110,1M (👇)
(expenses+R&D > revenues)
9,13% S.I.

Seres Therapeutics inc - 91,55m shares/74,63% float
9,955,955 ARKK/ARKG - 14.57% of float
204,89m value - 1,85B M.C. - 11.07% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 589,818
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,061,127
P/B - 10,55 - 23,33% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$91,6M
2020 N.I.: -$89,1M (👉)
(another drug bet)
10,59% S.I.

Materialise NV - 54,17m shares/38,68% float(!)
6,784,453 ARKK/ARKQ - 32.38% of float(!!!)
235,35m value - 1,84B M.C. - 12,79% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 309,661
Avg.Vol. 3M - 587,210
P/B - 11,25 - 86,48% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$3,2M
2020 N.I.: -$8,7M (👉)
(rapid debt expansion)
4,96% S.I.

Pacific Biosciences of California - 193,10m shares/99,03% float
20,480,339 ARKK/ARKG - 10,71% of float
658,65m value - 5,94B M.C. - 11,08% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 3,007,445
Avg.Vol. 3M - 4,628,574
P/B - 17,62 - 12,52% DtE
Continued 👇

2016 Operating income: -$71,2 million
2020 Operating income: -$98,4 million (sideways)
(N.I. distorted by $233m stock issuance)
(highest Revenue on Dec 2017 was $93,5m - Retained earnings -$1,036.9m. That's never coming back)
6% S.I.

Veracyte inc - 67m shares/99,16% float
7,326,482 ARKK/ARKW/ARKG - 11,02% of float
385,15m value - 3,46B M.C. - 9.97% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 522,786
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,057,622
P/B - 7,14 - 2,92% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$31,4M
2020 N.I.: -$34,9M (👉)
(cash parabolic. 10x Dec 2017)
5,39% S.I.

Editas Medicine inc. - 67,24m shares/98,71% float
7,295,189 ARKK/ARKG - 10,99% of float
287,87m value - 2,66B M.C. - 10,82%
Avg.Vol. 7D - 1,104,132
Avg.Vol. 3M - 2,440,342
P/B - 6,28 - DtE 6,64%
2016 N.I.: -$97,2 million
2020 N.I.: -$116 million (declining)
Continued 👇

(R&D expense tripled since Dec 2016)
(debt fueled expansion, retained earnings tripled too)
(net property/equipment sideways since 2016)
15,99% S.I.
We'll get into some heavy shorted stocks now.

Fate Therapeutics inc - 93,89m shares/84,93% float
6,875,281 ARKK/ARKG - 8,62% of float
536,20m value - 7,04B M.C. - 7,61% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 764,211
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,003,592
P/B - 17,11 - DtE 25,31%
2016 N.I.: -$33,5M
2020 N.I.: -$173,4M (cratered)
(R&D 5Xed.)
14,5% S.I.

Beam Therapeutics - 61,19m shares/65,21% float
5,202,209 ARKK/ARKG - 13,03% of float
365,35m value - 4,21B - 8.67% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 971,211
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,129,228
P/B - 15,69 - 43,84% DtE
2018 N.I.: -$115,3M
2020 N.I.: -$194,6M
(R&D/property/cash++, no revenue)
16,97% S.I.

2U inc - 73,99m shares/89,51% float
9,652,070 ARKK/ARKQ/ARKW - 14,57% of float
383.67m value - 2,84B M.C.- 13.51% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 790,760
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,644,846
P/B - 2,95 - 38,94% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$20,7M
2020 N.I.: -$216,5M (cratered in 2019)
continued 👇

(dilution based expansion, large stock compensation)
(cost of revenues keeps pace with revenue expansion)
17,26%(!) S.I.

Not an uncommon theme among these companies BTW, those that make revenue. Revenues expand, but cost of revenue/admin costs expand even faster.

PagerDuty inc - 83,06m shares/85,71% float
8,393,934 ARKK/ARKW - 11.79% of float
352,96m value - 3,47B M.C. - 10.17% of cap
A.Vol. 7D - 1,087,514
A.Vol. 3M - 1,459,570
P/B - 9,44 - 67,99% DtE
2018 N.I.: -$38,1M
2020 N.I.: -$68,9M 👇
(expenses increase as fast as profit)
11,36% SI

Iridium Communications Inc - 134,11m shares/88,62% float
10,592,367 ARKK/ARKQ/ARKX - 8,91% of float
454.94m value - 5,43B M.C. - 8,37% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 764,324
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,734,501
P/B - 3.82 - 116,27% DtE
2016 N.I.: +$111,1M
2020 N.I.: -$56,1M (cratered '17-'19)
Cont. 👇

(operating expenses are 273% of 2016, revenues are 135% of 2016)
(massive deprecation since 2018)
4,04% S.I.

Iovance Biotherapeutics inc - 146,98m shares/83,18% float
19,659,734 ARKK/ARKG - 16.08%(!) of float
593.53m value - 4,32B M.C. - 13.73% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 1,609,818
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,809,179
P/B - 6,58 - 7,87% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$102.3M
2020 N.I.: -$259.6M (👇)
(R&D 👆)
12,17% S.I.

Twist Bioscience corperation - 48,65m shares/93,65% float
5,746,286 ARKK/ARKG - 12.61% of float
759.83m value - 6,28B - 12,10% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 803,829
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,045,285
P/B - 9.83 - 5,34% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$44.1M
2020 N.I.: -$117.2M (👇)
(expenses > revenues)
7,86% S.I.

Pure Storage inv - 280,34m shares/93,24% float
29,082,552 ARKK/ARKW/ARKG - 11.12% of float
629.35m value - 6,15B M.C. - 10.23% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 3,340,722
Avg.Vol. 3M - 5,318,164
P/B - 8,14 - DtE 121,12%(!)
2016 N.I.: -$221.5M
2020 N.I.: -$282.1M (cratered since '17)
cont.👇

(debt fueled expansion, large deprecation, huge stock compensation)
(admin expenses+cost of revenue vastly exceed revenues)
5,94% S.I.

Intellia Therapeutics inc. - 67,73m shares/94,97% float
7,430,608 ARKK/ARKG - 11.55% of float
524.90m value - 4,63B M.C. - 11.33% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 956,580
Avg.Vol. 3M - 1,602,563
P/B - 8,6 - 7,46% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$31.6M
2020 N.I.: -$134.2M (👇)
Cont. 👇

(revenues 16m>58m. Diluted into a massive cash pile)
(cash+investments $597,4m, total assets $676,3m!)
13,59%(!) S.I.

Invitae corp - 196,65m shares/83,45% float
20,332,895 ARKK/ARKG - 12.39 of float
772.65m value - 7,4B M.C. - 10.44% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 3,249,164
Avg.Vol. 3M - 4,600,647
P/B - 3,54 - 22,76% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$100.3M
2020 N.I.: -$602.2M (abolished)
Cont. 👇

(Their ENTIRE balance sheet is HORRIBLE!)
(280m revenue, 200m cost of revenue, 250m selling expenses)
(MASSIVE stockbased compensation, 158m in 2020)
17,28% S.I. (Should be more)

THIS company is total trash. Their revenue record is HORRIBLE. No DD was done here at all.

CRISPR Therapeutics AG - 75,61m shares/86,76% float
7,203,391 ARKK/ARKG - 10.98% of float
833.72m value - 8.65B M.C. - 9.64% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 998,707
Avg.Vol. 3M - 2,148,258
P/B 5,08 - 3,69% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$23.2M
2020 N.I.: -$348.9M (cratered)
Cont.👇

(...They have $1,69 BILLION in cash+investments)
(1690m cash, 1828m total assets. Thank you Cathie!)
6,43% S.I.

Teladoc health inc - 154,29m shares/98,86%
13,753,616 ARKK/ARKW/ARKG/ARKF(!!!) - 9,02% of float
2,492.98m value - 28,08B - 8.87% of cap
Avg.Vol. 7D - 2,107,681
Avg.Vol. 3M - 3,629,619
P/B 1.72 - 9,44% DtE
2016 N.I.: -$74.2M
2020 N.I.: -$485.1M (cratered)
Cont. 👇

(Cost of revenues+admin expenses > revenues by ~$183,7m)
8,14% S.I.

While $ARKK is only 24,258.86m in "value" - if you add the value of all these stocks combined across all ETFs, it comes to 11,420.42m. That's 11,4 billion.

NEARLY ALL high risk drug companies.

Now like i said i haven't gone through quarterlies, nor am i a doctor and going through medical trials is not for me.

However, i DO know that those drug trials take ages, even with Phase 3, before stuff is brought to market.

Question is, what are these companies worth NOW?

And right now, every single one's overvalued to the hilt.

EVEN if they don't fail - Some have cash to burn for *years*. They are in *no hurry* to generate revenue anymore.

WHY would i buy *any* of these companies today, rather then in 3 years?

Assuming they're still alive.

And that's not counting trash like Invitae and Pure storage. Some of these companies are already deep in the hole or are giving huge stock compensation. Float's really high on alot of these too.

If they'd made revenues - fine. But NONE are profitable. Not even close

All i see is ill-advised debt fueled expansion without productive assets, zombie companies, High risk pharma plays that may or may not work out, *massive shareholder dilution everywhere* which, as a shareholder, you wanna avoid like the plague.

AND - same names in multiple ETFs.

That oughtta be a crime

Teladoc is owned by FOUR ARK ETFs!!!

Billion and a half in ARKK, billion spread across 3 others.

ANY halfwit can see their selling/admin expenses exceed their gross profits (revenues - cost of revenues), and have since inception.
seekingalpha.com/symbol/TDOC/in…

In my opinion, whatever the hell Cathie Wood is thinking, it's dangerous. Systemically dangerous, because if there's even the slightest hint of panic (many of these names have gone down last few months) cause she's found out as completely out of touch, ARKK's gonna go poof.

ARK as an entire investment company failing could be one of the biggest failures of modern history, and definitely would basically send the market into a crash.

And when there is a rout by *everyone else who's still holding float*, ARK's too big to even fit through the door.

She's maneuvered herself into a very dangerous corner, and my advice would be to get some popcorn 🍿

$ARKK $ARKQ $ARKW $ARKG $ARKF $ARKX #Fintwit #wallstreetsilver #Silversqueeze @WallStreetSilv @Galactic_Trader @PalisadesRadio @goldsilver_pros @TheEarlyStage @wmiddelkoop