Thread by @WholePicture_

#Thread about #Opposition in #Burma #Government:

Burma's opposition forms an interim government against the generals
The opposing government that is forming wants to abolish the constitution that gave the military a veto right in the democratization process.

It tries to include the ethnic minorities as well. The army is fighting on several fronts.

Parallel government with great ambitions
The project operates under the name CRPH.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
Source:
by @NZZ
nzz.ch/international/…

At the moment it is only a matter of a committee consisting of elected parliamentarians; They were never able to take up their function as representatives of the people and legislature because of the coup on February 1st. A government in exile is now to emerge from this dozen.

One of the exponents of the parallel government is the submerged Zin Mar Aung. She is a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) chaired by Aung San Suu Kyi and serves as the administration's foreign minister.

The goal is a democratic, federal union that includes ethnic minorities.

The monopoly of power and violence in Burma currently rests with the armed forces, which are increasingly ruthless against demonstrators. The number of civilians killed has now risen to over 530.

Initial hopes that the army leadership will split and that more moderate officers will prevail have not yet materialized.

The official composition of the alternative civil government will be announced “in the next few days”, according to an NLD member.

The undertaking is spectacular, but also risky: when names are mentioned, the movement and its leading figures are exposed. The number of NLD members on wanted lists is growing, and arrests are increasing. Those arrested must expect charges of “high treason”.

Since Wednesday, a draft constitution called the Federal Democracy Interim Constitution of the Federal United States of Myanmar has been circulating under the CRPH logo.

The draft speaks of a transitional government of "national unity", which is also composed of representatives of the minorities, the democracy movement and academia.

There is a threat of civil war if the UN does not react now.

On the border with Thailand, the Burmese air force flew attacks on positions of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) this week, triggering a stream of refugees towards Thailand among the civilian population.

These are the first aerial attacks since the signing of a ceasefire agreement in 2015.
The armistice seems to be over. The Karen National Union (KNU), the civil arm of the KNLA, has already clearly sided with the democracy movement.

A Karen representative, Mahn Win Khaing Than, is being traded as a senior member of the new CRPH government. Further north, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has also been involved in fighting with the army for days.

Both rebel groups have been striving for greater autonomy or statehood since 1948 and have declared that they will not accept the army's attacks on civilian demonstrators.

The scenario of a civil war that spreads to old rebellious areas on the border with China and Thailand can therefore be ruled out less and less.

Burma officially has 130 minorities; there are around 20 armed rebel organizations that either share economic benefices with the army or are involved in recurrent battles with the army - or both.

Some of these organizations and ethnic armies are on the side of the army within the framework of peace agreements.

Another part is waiting for further developments after the coup.
A third group - including KNO, KIA and the Council of Shan State (RCSS) - appear to side with the insurrection; in alliance with CRPH they now see the opportunity to form a genuinely federal state structure

For the national armed forces, a debilitating multi-front conflict is emerging. For the army leadership, which is also under increasing international pressure and sanctions and is increasingly hated internally, it is a horror scenario.

This explains her tactical move on Wednesday: She surprisingly offered all rebel organizations a ceasefire.