Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread
Econ 101:
1- When oil prices rose to $147 in 2008, and natural gas prices exceeded $14, #renewable energy did not expand much. Why? (same 2011-14 for oil)
Higher oil and natural gas prices are God's gift to democrats and environmentalists then. What happened? #oil #OOTT

2- Similarly, as governments and environmentalists pushed renewable energy and #ElectricVehicles forward, prices of several metals went up substantially and continued to increase. Was this a surprise? Probably to them.

But will this cost increase limit their growth?

3- We already know for sure that shortages of computer chips are delaying the production of all kinds of cars, including #ElectricVehicles.
- The chip shortage will hit electric trucks hard since they have already started the production & many were expected to come online soon.

4- Limiting imports of solar panels from China means China is no longer subsidizing parts of the global solar industry. The cost of domestically manufactured panels in the US or Europe is higher. The same for EV batteries. Extrapolating declining cost curves becomes a joke.

5- That is why China IS essential for any green deal in any country. This will explain why some WESTERN environmental advocacy groups, including those who take #ElectricVehilces religiously, ignore western values of human rights & democracy & brag about China's successes.

6- The hard push by some groups to operate under the cover of #COVID19 for a green agenda and tie any stimulus to green recovery is already backfiring. Their policies are in conflict with foreign & national security policies. In addition, transition is costly and takes time.

7- All agree that renewable energy will not solve the "climate crisis." The only way to accelerate carbon reduction is to "deindustrialize," which means "MCGA"

Can you guess what "MCGA" stands for?

8- The largest decline in emissions in Europe did not happen because of the move to renewables. It happened by moving polluting factories to China and other Asian countries. So the evidence on the link between lower emissions and deindustrialization is overwhelming

9- The largest decline in carbon emissions in the US was caused mostly by the shale gas revolution. I know some people claim that renewable energy was the reason. In this case, we must add all government subsidies to solar companies that went bankrupt to the cost!

10- Conclusion: energy transition to a low carbon economy requires time and money. Ignoring the laws of physics and economics will lead to problems and failures. Therefore, higher prices of metals and metrials is really a service from the market: slow down so you can succeed.

11- Climate change prophets must understand that what they are proposing is costly and takes time. They also must understand that what they are proposing are strong governments and limited freedoms.

Back to that "MCGA"!
Now read my pinned tweet!