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Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

18 Dec 20

Short Thread on Canada's New Carbon Tax: 🇨🇦

1- Most of the reduction in the emissions in Europe since late 1980s happened because they shifted them to China & other countries as energy intensive factories & others moved out of Europe.
#Canada #climatechange #oil #OOTT

2- The impact of renewable energy is small. If ALL EU countries switch ALL their cars to #Electricvehciles, assuming ALL electricity comes from solar & wind, they can reduce global emissions by only 2%.

3- European politicians are going to claim great success and show large decline in emissions to justify their massive spending on subsidies to support solar and wind. Although most of it was caused by factories leaving to China. #China #emissions

Read 9 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

12 Oct 20

Thread

Ready for a shock?
1-5 Every additional EV in the 2030s & 2040s will have less impact on oil demand than earlier ones according to long term outlooks by X, Y, & Z!

Why?

They assume massive improvement in ICE fuel economy.

#Oil #OOTT

2-5 That means, replacing an ICE vehicle with an EV will cause only small reduction in oil demand.

Hence, the impact of #ElectricVehicles on global oil demand declines with time.

Shocked yet? wait, there is more!

3-5 If fuel economy is going to improve that much (emissions ⬇️⬇️), why do we need the expensive #ElectricVehicles ?

For the record, according to these Oil Outlooks, the decline in oil demand due to improvement fuel economy is three times the decline in oil demand due to EVs!

Read 5 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

6 Jun 20

Thread on #OPEC and OPEC+ meetings today:
(Media: please feel free to quote)

1- What is the importance of this meeting? 1-

First, Deepening the production cuts from what was previously agreed upon for the month of July, which would accelerate the rebalancing of the markets

2- Second, the unprecedented focus on the commitment of all members & the establishment of a monthly monitoring system for the production of member states & the #oil market. This means that the possibility of a monthly renewal of the agreement exists if there is a need for it.

3- Third, establishing a new system used for the first time by OPEC: reduction of future production quota if countries violate their current quota. This system has been historically adopted by world commodity organizations such as the Tin, Bauxite a& Coffee organizations.

Read 11 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

9 May 20

هذه سلسلة تغريدات عن تكاليف إنتاج الصخري ومستقبله.

1- أغلب ما ينشر ويذكر في الإعلام العربي ووسائل الاتصال الاجتماعي عن #النفط الصخري عبارة عن عموميات، وكثيرا من الأحيان أفكار ومعلومات خاطئة. وأقولها من البداية: هناك شركات تستطيع تحقيق عوائد بين 15% و 30% بسعر 40 دولار للبرميل.

2- والقول بأن شركات #النفط الصخري لم تحقق أرباحاً يدل على جهل كبير بالصناعة. كما أن هناك منافع ضخمة اضافية منها توظيف عدد ضخم من الناس مباشرة أو غير مباشرة، وتمويل موازنات الولايات النفطية والحكومات المحلية، عدا الأعمال الخيرية والخدمات المجتمعية التي تقدمها هذه الشركات.

3- كما أن هناك جهل كامل في كيفية عمل الصناديق الخاصة والاستثمارات التي مولت مشاريع النفط الصخري، وكيف حققت هذه الصناديق أرباحا هائلة. البنوك والشركات الكبيرة دخلت على الخط فيما بعد. وتبعها دخول استثمارات لا يعرف أصحابها أي شيئ عن صناعة النفط عموما والنفط الصخري خصوصا، فخسروا.

Read 23 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

2 Apr 20

Thread
What we know so far:

1- #Trump made the calls. His numbers of 10-15 mb/d of #oil production cut are farfetched, & I am trying to be polite here.

2- Saudi Arabia called for an emergency meeting of OPEC andOPEC+

3- It seems Saudis are responding to the market... but..

- Any cut lower than 7 mb/d will have no impact on the market. The decline in demand is forcing this cut. This is #oil that will not be sold anyway
- The 30% increase in oil prices this morning does not mean much for many US shale and Candian producers because of differentials

- If Saudis cut production to below 10 mb/d, but prices remain low, the blame will be squarely on #COVID19, something senators from oil-producing states missed. What will they say when Saudi Arabia cuts and oil prices remain low?

Read 8 tweets

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

15 Mar 20

Thread: Economics of empty shelves
1- Stores stock shelves to maximum to give consumers sense of safety & buy only what they need, so they come back often. Studies show that, in general, consumers buy more than the items they wanted every time they come to the store..!

2- Gas stations want to give the same sense of security by having a number of pumps that are available most of the time, and many, all the time. The last thing a gas station owner or manager want to is to run out of gasoline.

3- Empty shelves sends the wrong massage: Things are running out, for every thing or certain items. Even those who have no idea what is going one will start developing a sense of urgency and buy. Even cool-headed people might end up and end up participating in the panic buying.

Read 15 tweets

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