Thread by @althecat

And then around midday. In Levi (@TropicalTidbits) commentary he mentions several times how fast the storm is moving. And this becomes apparent in these animations.

And this is also pertinent in relation to the hazard's #Elsa #TSElsa potentially poses as she strengthens.

Levi also talks about the GFS (U.S. @NOAA) and European (@ECMWF) models disagreeing on track/guidance. Here's the latest GFS model forecast for the Caribbean. In it the storm does not strengthen a great deal. But it does reach the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. I.E. Elsa is moving.

This animation shows a PWAT (Precipitable water) simulation for the same period, through to a potential landfall on Wednesday/Thursday. I was curious to see how much #Elsa would gather together and influence the PWAT distribution. And it appears she will do so.

With #TSElsa there is a lot on the line. A fast moving storm with an unclear destination. One which is potentially causing considerable damage, mostly from rains, but it remains to be seen whether the strength forecasts are realistic.

In particular model intensity forecasts for #Tauktae at the beginning of June in the Arabian Sea were way out. And that also occurred during the unusually intense tropical monsoon this summer.

#Elsa is a storm to watch.