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1 Jul, 16 tweets, 20 min read
The big-rains season in Ethiopia is now underway, and today is the second day of #GERD filling. As it was yesterday, today's rains were strong over the #Abbay Catchment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
This animation shows the storms as they began today, fueled by water baring winds from the Indian Monsoon.
Attached thread show's yesterday's forecast report.
In the big picture today we can see yet another day of #ArabianStorms continuing the trend which began in April.

In Europe another big front is bearing down in the North Atlantic as two large storm systems continue to bring significant rains to West, Central & Eastern Europe.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 1st through July 10th.

[NOTE: The widespread rainfall in the CMC forecast for Yemen is a new feature and supported in the long-range GFS forecast.]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and Korea's KMA.
And finally, long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-Day (KMA forecasts for the wider region. I have included a closeup from the long-range GFS forecast.

As far as I know rain this extensive in Oman and Yemen is pretty unusual.
In this animation we can see both the rains in #Ethiopia and the #ArabianStorms in Saudi Arabia and Yemen on the Red Sea Coast. We can also see cloud activity building over southern Egypt.
Today's July 1st 10-day rainfall forecasts (+1 12 day forecast from KMA) for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. The official beginning of the big rainy season is now underway.

The longer-range forecasts now show significant rain over nearly all of #Ethiopia, and heavy rain in war-torn Tigray.
This image shows a closeup of today's #DesertRain and #ArabianStorms in Egypt, Sudan and Saudi Arabia.
10-Day July 1st, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 1st (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
Eyewitness tweets from @Arab_Storms today of #ArabianStorms, the first from @SaudiArabia.

The first tweet today is a call to prayer for tomorrow Muslim holy day.
@Arab_Storms @saudiarabia The second is from Switzerland and shows a super-cell thunderstorm shelf cloud worthy of Florida or Texas.
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 1st, 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

This level of rainfall in Yemen is a first for the GFS model so far in the 2021 spring-summer.
الله أعلم
& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)

Note the PWAT anomaly over Sudan.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
2 Jul
Day three of official #GERD filling today in Ethiopia. And a gap in the clouds this morning reveals the GERD lake on the #Abbay river.

Today's #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow. Image
Here we zoom out a little, the source of the #Abbay/#BlueNile Lake Tana takes pride of place. You can see the #GERD lake in the bottom left hand corner.

These images are from the @NASA Modis Worldview service. Also below a picture of the #GERD from back in January. ImageImage
Here's today's big picture as ever of the great Sahara Desert. You can see today's #ArabianStorms starting up bottom right, and top left a new rain front coming into Western Europe where the 2021 #EuropeBigWet continues to bring rain and unseasonably mild temperatures. Image
Read 17 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
1 Jul
Somewhat unsually for @Monbiot this article is both harsh shallow and foolish. The story of the Tigray War, its origins, and potential consequences is not comprehensively covered in his usual manner, as a Monbiot fan I am disappointed. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
This companion piece of reporting also from yesterday is better. But it too fails to understand the complexity of a nation which was under seige from Trump, who was in league with Egypt in the lead up to the war in its dispute over the #GERD as well as dealing with Covid.
The coverage from pontificating western media over the this Ethiopian catastrophe rages as an echo chamber of ill-informed reckons.

There are reasons this is happening. More complex and more interesting than the collective ill-informed group-think currently being reported.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
1 Jul
And then around midday. In Levi (@TropicalTidbits) commentary he mentions several times how fast the storm is moving. And this becomes apparent in these animations.

And this is also pertinent in relation to the hazard's #Elsa #TSElsa potentially poses as she strengthens.
Levi also talks about the GFS (U.S. @NOAA) and European (@ECMWF) models disagreeing on track/guidance. Here's the latest GFS model forecast for the Caribbean. In it the storm does not strengthen a great deal. But it does reach the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. I.E. Elsa is moving.
This animation shows a PWAT (Precipitable water) simulation for the same period, through to a potential landfall on Wednesday/Thursday. I was curious to see how much #Elsa would gather together and influence the PWAT distribution. And it appears she will do so.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
30 Jun
A big day for rains in the #HornOfAfrica and particularly in the #Abbay Basin today, possibly the biggest this year. #GERD

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HoA, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follows.
Here we see a closeup of the storms building this afternoon over the Ethiopia Highlands, including Tigray and Eritrea. As well we can see explosive storms along the Red Sea Coast in Yemen and the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia.
This high resolution satellite image shows the entire Nile Basin this morning, with clouds well north over Sudan as the day began.
Read 22 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
29 Jun
Heavy rains fell over the Horn of Africa today as the world turns its attention towards the area, following a tumultuous week since the election last Monday.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
The big picture tonight at sundown. Europe, the Sahara North Africa the Horn and the Middle East. #AllInThisTogether
Today's North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts. The West African Monsoon continues to run strong.
Read 20 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
29 Jun
Day two of media coverage of the catastrophic events unfolding in the Tigray region of Ethiopia where the TDF has taken the capital city of Mekele back from Federal control.

@AJEnglish Backgrounder. via @YouTube
The @Guardian report from late last night, he subheading of which is << Government forces invaded Tigray in November sparking condemnation of prime minister >>, which is an absurd reading of what happened on November 4th 2020 when this war started. theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
CNN's coverage is incendiary, especially yesterday's breaking video report mostly of older materia , the text report - which caries five bylines - including @nimaelbagir, who appears with @jaketapper in the video version of the story. edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/wor…
Read 7 tweets

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