Day three of official #GERD filling today in Ethiopia. And a gap in the clouds this morning reveals the GERD lake on the #Abbay river.

Today's #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Here we zoom out a little, the source of the #Abbay/#BlueNile Lake Tana takes pride of place. You can see the #GERD lake in the bottom left hand corner.

These images are from the @NASA Modis Worldview service. Also below a picture of the #GERD from back in January.
Here's today's big picture as ever of the great Sahara Desert. You can see today's #ArabianStorms starting up bottom right, and top left a new rain front coming into Western Europe where the 2021 #EuropeBigWet continues to bring rain and unseasonably mild temperatures.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 2nd through July 11th.

[NOTE: The widespread rainfall in the CMC forecast for Yemen is a new feature and supported in the long-range GFS forecast.]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and Korea's KMA models.

In all forecasts short and long range we now see rainfall pushing deep into northern areas in the Sahel.
Finally, long-range 16-day (GFS) &12-Day (KMA forecasts for the wider region. I have included a closeup from the long-range GFS forecast. The extent of rainfall in the Western Sahara now shown by the GFS is similar to that in the much more #desertrain bullish CMC and KMA models
Here's a six hour animation of rain building today over Ethiopia running from 9.30am GMT. Its not quite as strong as the past two days but these storms tend to build until evening and then continue deep into the night.
Here we see the source of the water which is powering the East Africa Monsoon rains, streams of airborn moisture caused by convective storms over the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal and South East Asia.
This forecast map shows the high altitude winds which guide these aerial water flows. The coloured areas show faster wind speeds.
Today's July 2nd 10-day rainfall forecasts (+1 12 day forecast from KMA) for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea. All model forecasts are now both strong and stable.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. The big rainy season is now underway.

The longer-range forecasts now show significant rain over nearly all of #Ethiopia, and heavy rain in war-torn Tigray.
Today's #ArabianStorms coming to life in Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
10-Day July 2nd, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 2nd (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ACG, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 1st, 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

This level of rainfall in Yemen is a first for the GFS model so far in the 2021 spring-summer.
الله أعلم
& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)

[Note the persistent PWAT anomaly over Sudan.]
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

3 Jul
The convective storms over Ethiopia and Sudanese Nile Basins tonight is remarkably intense. Bringing massive amounts of rain across a huge area, including the #Abbay /#BlueNile basin, on the 4th day of #GERD filling.

Today's #HOA #ME and #NorthAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.
In this wider view you can see the full size of today's rain areas which extended deep into Sudan later in the afternoon.
These two images are at sunset the sizes of the two large convective areas, the eastern one extends well north into Eritrea and covers Tigray and the entire #Abbay Basin. The first image provides an idea of size. Each storm area is larger than the UK and Ireland. ImageImage
Read 28 tweets
3 Jul
Hurricane #Elsa this morning shortly before daybreak. The track of this increasingly dangerous looking cyclone has moved east and north with a projected path over Cuba now.
Here is the latest official warnings and advice. Elsa is moving very fast and is currently forecast to exit the U.S. after making landfall in 5 days time. However these events are inherently unpredictable. See .... nhc.noaa.gov Image
This animation shows water vapour over the Caribbean over the next five days. The center of Elsa can be seen in purple.
Read 5 tweets
1 Jul
Somewhat unsually for @Monbiot this article is both harsh shallow and foolish. The story of the Tigray War, its origins, and potential consequences is not comprehensively covered in his usual manner, as a Monbiot fan I am disappointed. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
This companion piece of reporting also from yesterday is better. But it too fails to understand the complexity of a nation which was under seige from Trump, who was in league with Egypt in the lead up to the war in its dispute over the #GERD as well as dealing with Covid.
The coverage from pontificating western media over the this Ethiopian catastrophe rages as an echo chamber of ill-informed reckons.

There are reasons this is happening. More complex and more interesting than the collective ill-informed group-think currently being reported.
Read 8 tweets
1 Jul
And then around midday. In Levi (@TropicalTidbits) commentary he mentions several times how fast the storm is moving. And this becomes apparent in these animations.

And this is also pertinent in relation to the hazard's #Elsa #TSElsa potentially poses as she strengthens.
Levi also talks about the GFS (U.S. @NOAA) and European (@ECMWF) models disagreeing on track/guidance. Here's the latest GFS model forecast for the Caribbean. In it the storm does not strengthen a great deal. But it does reach the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. I.E. Elsa is moving.
This animation shows a PWAT (Precipitable water) simulation for the same period, through to a potential landfall on Wednesday/Thursday. I was curious to see how much #Elsa would gather together and influence the PWAT distribution. And it appears she will do so.
Read 5 tweets
1 Jul
The big-rains season in Ethiopia is now underway, and today is the second day of #GERD filling. As it was yesterday, today's rains were strong over the #Abbay Catchment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
This animation shows the storms as they began today, fueled by water baring winds from the Indian Monsoon.
Attached thread show's yesterday's forecast report.
In the big picture today we can see yet another day of #ArabianStorms continuing the trend which began in April.

In Europe another big front is bearing down in the North Atlantic as two large storm systems continue to bring significant rains to West, Central & Eastern Europe.
Read 16 tweets
30 Jun
A big day for rains in the #HornOfAfrica and particularly in the #Abbay Basin today, possibly the biggest this year. #GERD

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HoA, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follows.
Here we see a closeup of the storms building this afternoon over the Ethiopia Highlands, including Tigray and Eritrea. As well we can see explosive storms along the Red Sea Coast in Yemen and the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia.
This high resolution satellite image shows the entire Nile Basin this morning, with clouds well north over Sudan as the day began.
Read 22 tweets

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