It will be interesting to see how #Ramsdale gets on at #AFC & how his game evolves.
One thing #AFC know they are getting is a quality 1v1 stopper!
My model suggests #Ramsdale’s 1v1 prowess saved #SUFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL GK would’ve!
In comparison #Leno was average at stopping 1v1s last year & given the brand of football #Arsenal wish to play maybe this was in their thought process when they scouted #Ramsdale.
My model has #Ramsdale as one of the top 5 1v1 stoppers in the #PL & potentially can still improve!
#Ramsdale’s strength vs close range 1v1s is down to his lightning fast speed of thought & speed off the line in combination with his wonderful bravery & tidy spread technique.
Vs long range 1v1s he often loses his nerve & prematurely rushes forwards outside his 6yrd box leaving him in no mans land.
This #Rashford goal is a great example, here a mid height central shot beats him due to his poor decision making.
He showed signs that he had the footwork required to back off into his 6yrd box vs long range 1v1s & dictate the 1v1 to the CF, but far too often when he got this part right he still gamble on where the CF would put it & thus allow himself to be beaten by poor central finishes.
There is hope for #AFC fans in this regard! At the back end of the season he really improved vs long range 1v1s & started getting them right!
Here vs #SFC he backed off into his 6yrd box & held his nerve & didn’t gamble & made a very tidy foot save, hopefully he can keep this up
#Ramsdale’s overall shot stopping had performance was interesting.
He started solidly but mistakes started to creep into his game & when media scrutiny followed there was a huge dip in performance but Rambo showed incredible mental resilience & ended the season very well!
At #AFCB he showed he is competent playing the ball with his feet & at #SUFC last year he showed when on form his shot stopping is exemplary.
I imagine #Ramsdale will start as the number two but it will be interesting to see how quickly he can win the number 1 shirt.
For me the price is a bit much but I guess that’s what you have to pay for a homegrown PL GK & it felt like the homegrown part was very important to #AFC!
If you are interested to hear more about my thoughts on this move check out this video I did with the wonderful @LatteFirm!
This #AlexanderArnold FK against #Chelsea was the most unstoppable FK in the #PremierLeague since 2017/2018 according to the FK ExSaves model I’ve built!
My model predicts this shot would only be saved 6 times in 1000!
The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish
The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!
After showing us how a GK can maximise their chances of saving a close range 1v1, #Schmeichel has just show how us how a GK can minimise their chances of saving a long range 1v1!
By engaging early he allows Wilson to easily round him with 1 touch!
He needed to wait for longer!
If #Schmeichel waits inside his 6 yard box for #Wilson’s touch, #Wilson then has a decision to make:
1. Shoot from 17yrd knowing defenders are track back.
2. Take a touch knowing he will bring it closer to goal but also closer to the GK.
Regardless of what decision #Wilson makes #Schmeichel will have a higher probability of making the save than he would have if he rushes out & engages early like he does.
1. If #Wilson shoots #Schmeichel’s deep position will maximise his reaction time & thus his save probability.
There are 2 crucial decisions which made this save possible:
• The decision to engage early -> minimised the distance to the ball thus maximised the goal area covered!
• The decision to spread -> spreading further maximised the goal area covered!
#Schmeichel quickly realised the 1v1 was going to be from close range & he wouldn’t be able to react to the shot if he stayed deep & thus he needed to rush out & form a premeditated barrier
Without this quick decision he wouldn’t have gotten close enough to ASM to make the save!
Even once he gets out to ASM it could still be a goal but #Schmeichel’s excellent spread technique means he fills a huge portion of the goal & manages to get a toe on the ball & deflect it out for a corner.
Using a different barrier technique would’ve likely resulted in a goal.
Expected Save% for an avg #PL GK who faced the same shots as #Pickford in that time = 69.0
I understand why people think that #England’s #1 should be better than a middle of the road PL GK but the abuse he gets is just crazy!
Also regarding the #England #1 shirt, the main reason he has it is because currently #Southgate believes that being an average shotstopper is outweighed by the fact he is a level above any other English GK when it comes to distributing the ball, especially when under pressure!
#Henderson has outperformed #DeGea when it comes to shotstopping 🔄
Despite criticism #Ramsdale#Pickford & #Guaita have performed at a roughly average top flight level 👀
Explanation of ExSaves:
ExSaves are calculated by looking at every shot a GK faces & using the shots distance, angle, trajectory, final location, the number of defenders in the way + other things & using historical data to find the probability that an avg PL GK makes the save...
...Therefore as a rough example a shot from 40yrds at a tight angle that goes down the middle of goal with all the teams defenders behind the ball may have an ExSave of 99% whereas a central 1v1 from 10yrds fired into the bottom corner may have an ExSave of 10%.