#DeGea is one of the best GKs in the #PremierLeague when dealing with long range 1v1s & the save vs #Armstrong was great!

He knew AA was ~15yrd out so it would take a top finish to beat him so he didn’t need to rush out or gamble as that would only make AA’s finish easier

#MUFC ImageImageImageImage
It may look like a simple save in the end but that’s all down to #DeGea’s excellent decision making which massively reduces the chance quality

The composure DDG showed to stay deep to his line & not over commit early isn’t common, even in the #PremierLeague

Such top goalkeeping Image
Here’s a similar situation where the GK didn’t keep their composure during a long range 1v1 & rushed forward & gambled & as a result let in a pretty average finish

I am not using this to bash #Bachmann, instead I think it should be used to praise #DeGea, the DDG save wasn’t easy ImageImageImageImage
For those saying it wasn’t a great finish, yes that is true but your argument lacks nuance because the reason it was a poor finish was because #DeGea’s decision making influenced AA to try hit the ball hard, a harder finish to execute, than a curled sidefoot/lob/chip etc. Image
If you want to see/learn more about how & why the wait & react strategy (the one #DeGea used today) is such a good one when the striker is 14+yrds out during 1v1s then see the thread below where I first introduced my statistically based 1v1 model & my 1v1 analysis 👇🏻
Just ran this through my 1v1 model & found:

If #DeGea had rushed out this situation would’ve resulted in a goal ~59% of the time.

#DeGea’s decision to wait deep reduces this to ~31% of the time.

Yes the finish wasn’t amazing but DDG’s positioning cut the ExG almost in half!
🤯

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with John Harrison

John Harrison Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Jhdharrison1

19 Aug
THREAD: #Ramsdale to #Arsenal

It will be interesting to see how #Ramsdale gets on at #AFC & how his game evolves.

One thing #AFC know they are getting is a quality 1v1 stopper!

My model suggests #Ramsdale’s 1v1 prowess saved #SUFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL GK would’ve!
In comparison #Leno was average at stopping 1v1s last year & given the brand of football #Arsenal wish to play maybe this was in their thought process when they scouted #Ramsdale.

My model has #Ramsdale as one of the top 5 1v1 stoppers in the #PL & potentially can still improve!
#Ramsdale’s strength vs close range 1v1s is down to his lightning fast speed of thought & speed off the line in combination with his wonderful bravery & tidy spread technique.

This save vs #Wolves is a good example

Rambo creates a huge barrier & snuffs out an excellent chance!
Read 9 tweets
16 Aug
Project Preview:

This #AlexanderArnold FK against #Chelsea was the most unstoppable FK in the #PremierLeague since 2017/2018 according to the FK ExSaves model I’ve built!

My model predicts this shot would only be saved 6 times in 1000!

& Trent made it look so simple!

#LFC #GK ImageImage
For those interested, this graphic is a good representation of what the model actually “sees”.

The variables used to train the model were:

• Initial Shot Distance
• Initial Shot Angle
• Shot Trajectory Relative to the Wall
• Final Shot Location
• Shot Velocity Image
My model passed the sanity check as it found:

Closer FKs are harder to save ✅

More central FKs are harder to save ✅

FKs which go over the wall are harder to save ✅

FK which are higher & closer to the corners are harder to save ✅

FK which are faster are harder to save ✅
Read 4 tweets
14 Aug
Class from #Alisson!

Wonderful decision to wait & react rather than engaging #Pukki!

#Alisson’s improved so much vs long range 1v1s!

19/20 long range 1v1 ExSaves: 6.01
19/20 long range 1v1 Saves: 5 ❌

20/21 long range 1v1 ExSaves: 11.46
20/21 long range 1v1 Saves: 13 ✅

#LFC ImageImageImageImage
So many GKs panic when strikers run in 1v1 (& #Alisson used to be one of them) & feel they have to rush out & immediately & end up gifting easy finishes.

It’s awesome that #Alisson seems to have fixed this weakness in his game because his compatriot #Ederson still hasn’t! 👇🏻
By backing off #Alisson forces #Pukki wider than he would’ve been if he had rushed early & allows his defenders to pressure the ball from behind & forces #Pukki to try to smash the ball rather than having an sidefoot or chipped finish which makes the chance quality so much lower! Image
Read 5 tweets
18 May
What a save from #DeGea

Unbelievably calm GKing in a crucial moment

It may look like a simple save but that’s all because of his exemplary decision to use the wait & react 1v1 strategy as the 1v1 was from long range!

Not many GKs could make such a good decision

#MUFC #MUNFUL
The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish
The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!
Read 8 tweets
7 May
After showing us how a GK can maximise their chances of saving a close range 1v1, #Schmeichel has just show how us how a GK can minimise their chances of saving a long range 1v1!

By engaging early he allows Wilson to easily round him with 1 touch!

He needed to wait for longer!
If #Schmeichel waits inside his 6 yard box for #Wilson’s touch, #Wilson then has a decision to make:

1. Shoot from 17yrd knowing defenders are track back.

2. Take a touch knowing he will bring it closer to goal but also closer to the GK.

#FNF #LEINEW
Regardless of what decision #Wilson makes #Schmeichel will have a higher probability of making the save than he would have if he rushes out & engages early like he does.

1. If #Wilson shoots #Schmeichel’s deep position will maximise his reaction time & thus his save probability.
Read 6 tweets
7 May
What a save by #Schmeichel!

There are 2 crucial decisions which made this save possible:

• The decision to engage early -> minimised the distance to the ball thus maximised the goal area covered!

• The decision to spread -> spreading further maximised the goal area covered!
#Schmeichel quickly realised the 1v1 was going to be from close range & he wouldn’t be able to react to the shot if he stayed deep & thus he needed to rush out & form a premeditated barrier

Without this quick decision he wouldn’t have gotten close enough to ASM to make the save!
Even once he gets out to ASM it could still be a goal but #Schmeichel’s excellent spread technique means he fills a huge portion of the goal & manages to get a toe on the ball & deflect it out for a corner.

Using a different barrier technique would’ve likely resulted in a goal.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(