TAIWAN News: Eric Chu wins race for KMT leadership, first time ever with less than 50% vote for party election. Chu has vowed to return the century-old party to power in 2024.
taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…
If US-China conflict escalates, it's going to run through Taiwan and its local politics. A few important dates on Taiwan's political calendar leading up to 2024 election, which is about 10 months ahead of US election cycle.
Dec 18th, 2021 Referendum on 4 issues: nuclear power, the Datan algal reef, US pork imports & future referendum dates. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is against nuclear, for building on a reef, for US pork, against setting referendum dates on election dates.
If opposition KMT prevails on all four questions, it will strengthen their influence. A poor result for the DPP has the potential not only to cast Tsai as a lame duck but also ripple into the 2022 NIOE and the 2024 presidential and legislative elections.
eastasiaforum.org/2021/08/03/tsa…
Hahaha, isn't politics Local & Global: "Given the 25% turnout needed for the passage of any referendum, the KMT is looking to achieve concurrent voting to maximize voter turnout in future referendums. The DPP has already squelched an attempt to establish absentee voting."
Nov 2022: NIOE(Nine in One Election), or local executive branch elections. (Municipal Mayors, Municipal Councilors, Chiefs of indigenous districts in municipalities, Councilors of indigenous districts in municipalities, County Magistrates (City Mayors) etc.)
Jan 2024 Pres. election, inauguration May20. Wiki not up to date as Eric Chu KMT leader. Who DPP nominates will be interesting. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiw…
As an eternal optimist, I am hoping to visit Taiwan in 2023, which was delayed from 2020. Never been there. The village I grew up in Zhejiang has 6 families separated by 30 years after 1949. Neighbor raised 2 boys alone while husband went to TW, remarried, then reunited in 1980s.
My paternal grandfather's brother, associated with Huang Pu(West Point of Old China). Unlike lower ranked KMT soldier, has choice/stayed in mainland with wife in 1949 and suffered during Cultural Revolution. War for ordinary people is between a rock and a hard place.

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More from @liqian_ren

4 Oct
1. Is #Evergrande stock suspended news? If you've followed me, you know I've said many times the screenplay on how to restructure is largely already laid out in past restructuring of companies like HNA or Huarong. #HNA Group is turned into a trust to pay to bond holders.
2. How long will it take? Majority of HNA restructuring took about 10 months, with the rest still ongoing. It's broken into 4 pieces with three parts introducing strategic equity investors, with the rest turned into a trust for bond holders.
3. How about the those wealth management products? HNA bankruptcy procedure mentioned that if all law is followed, they are likely so low in debt priority to get nothing. But it gave each person Yuan30k, with the rest going into official pool of debtors. Call it socialism.
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
1. Better headline: "Will Common Prosperity Make Japan Great Again?" MJGA!😂 We have deep expertise and top indexes on Japanese equity, particularly currency hedging. Below is the list of some under appreciated things of Japanese equity.
2. Underappreciated: If US fiscal/monetary response to the pandemic is large, Japan's is even a larger share of GDP. Lay person language: money money money for the economy.
3. Our colleague reviewed how Warren Buffet's Japanese investment last September has turned out. Following Mr. Buffet, global investors have been putting money there quietly for a while. wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-05-0…
Read 9 tweets
28 Sep
1. A recap on #China electricity shortage, National Development and Reform Commission (#NDRC) that’s at the center of news, and what’s next.
2. Like any sudden shortage, it’s demand, supply, low slack and sudden shock. Due to low price of Coal in 2020 right after Covid, and government's push to reduce overcapacity and carbon emissions, coal inventory was low. China electricity is 70%+ coal power.
3. This September 3rd Moody’s report on coal sector was a 2 weeks early to be noticed. They mention 10 largest producers – all SOEs – accounted for nearly 53% of China's coal production in 2020, while three regions represented 70% of total production
moodys.com/research/Moody…
Read 19 tweets
26 Sep
1/6 #ChinaTech #Event #Watch: World Internet Conference 2021 opened in WuZhen, Zhejiang. Generally who's who in gov't and businesses showed up with topics as future themes: AI, Cybersecurity, CyberLaw, Internet Charity/ESG, 5G, Internet+Edu
2/6 Panel 1 Guests on AI
3/6 Panel 2 guests. Notice #Megvii and #Iflytek, both on US sanction lists.
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep
1/12 A thread on #ANT and how to read #China #PBOC Governor speech on Fintech(#ANT) yesterday. The headline says only FinTech, but Wink Wink, ANT is all over. Get strapped because I will sprinkle some wide guesses and rumors in the end. pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu…
2/12 My quick take on Fintech (Ant) SINS: 1. Monopoly power 2. Winner takes all 3. Payment system seeping into finance, insurance, small loan and asset mgt. 4. FIN must be separated from Tech, Payment from FIN. 5. Data Security 6. Global Coop on Fintech regulation
3/12 Points 3, 4, 5 has been addressed! I'v written on ANT credit scoring JV+ SASAC take stakes in the three private credit scoring companies. And Alipay has been ordered to be separated from financial services, because FinTech is more Finny than Techy!
Read 14 tweets
19 Sep
1/9 A thread of one potential negative wind for #China #growth next few months: manufacturing firms forced to halt production under energy/environmental constraints 能耗双控. Firms in #Jiangsu asked to stop production. Malls asked to delay opening for 1/2 hour to conserve energy.
2/9 Background: 2060 carbon neutrality goal, National Development and Reform Comm.(#NDRC) sets a staged road map2025/30/35. Each province, two annual hard targets need to meet: total energy usage growth and GDP per unit energy used. (in Chinese) in-en.com/article/html/e…
3/9 AUG 7th, #NDRC graded each province in YTD red/yellow/green. Economically important provinces like #Guangdong, #Jiangsu #Fujian red for both targets. #ZheJiang yellow for both.
gov.cn/zhengce/zhengc…
Read 11 tweets

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