Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. "The freedom-loving Mujahideen and the young resistance fighters of Nahrin city, Baghlan province, today started their armed struggle against the aggressors and foreign occupiers under the leadership of the young commander Ahmad Massoud and Commander Saleh Mohammad Rigistan,

https://twitter.com/Sadaf_Kabul/status/1448518366944276483

2. the senior military commander of the National Resistance Front."

I rarely reported on Afghanistan in the nearly 7years of reporting on the war in Syria. I felt there was no foreseeable solution for Afghanistan with the same corrupt elites running the country so

3. there would always be fighting. I knew in spring @JoeBiden had to make a call in Afghanistan, so I spent time trying to apply what I learned in 7 years about what wins and what loses wars. By the time Joe announced, I'd concluded there was no US centered militarily solution.

4. The Afghan national army had some top units and fighters, but a large of portion of the force were poorly equipped and poorly motivated. In a shooting war, you need people who can shoot and are willing to get in a fight. #NRF folks can shoot, and they don't run from a fight.

5. Whether the west supports them or not, they're not going to surrender to the #Taliban, and they appear to have a good supply of #Russian weapons. Aks, Pks, Dragunovs, and RPGs. The Taliban found a few huge caches in #Panjshir. I presume there were more they didn't find and

6. the fledgling #NRF had a few weeks to prepare. Though I didn't see a US centered military solution, an Afghan solution can defeat the Taliban, who, by virtue of their now-exposed Pak-ISI affiliation, have grown fearful of their own forces.

7. As the Taliban pillage the Afghan middle-class they've obtained phones. The line guerrilla fighters are being blasted from the 13th to the 21st century in a matter of weeks. They see their bosses living like royalty in Doha and don't seem motivated to go up into mountains

8. swarming with Mujahideen snipers.