Thread by @jobahout

The failed assassination attempt vs #IraqiPM #Kadhimi calls for several observations:
• 1st contextual element: Recent Iraqi elections were clear setback for #Iran (w/out really strengthening the PM’s own constituency; while strengthening #Muqtada_Sadr, a volatile actor).
(1)

(2)
• This has triggered 2 opposite effects:
- need for #Iran & #PMF to reassert control & preeminence on #Iraqi scene (by use of violence among other means).
- (vs) temptation by rivals (mainly #Gulf) to (over?)read setback as a net advantage in their favor.

(3)
• 2nd contextual element:
- Stalling of #Saudi/#Iran talks (#Yemen setback?), w clear #Gulf stiffening (#Lebanon?) as bargaining posture.
- soon new round of Iran/#US talks, w Vienna process becoming in final decisive phase.

(4)
• In such contexts, #Kadhimi’s assassination attempt reflects feelings of #Iran’s both weakness AND strength on regional scene:
- Rush act revealing nervousness & limitation of other means.
- Feeling of over potency & immunity allowing use of naked & crude violence.

(5)
Some additional observations/questions:
• #Iran’s recent misfortunes in #Iraq indicate serious loss of effectiveness consequent to #Qassem_Suleimani’s elimination?
• Return to violent lethal tools could bode bad for other regional theaters; #Lebanon as main candidate?

PS: For more on the assassination attempt of #Iraqi PM #Qadhimi, some of my takes in this @APMiddleEast piece:
apnews.com/article/middle…

“The escalation reveals nervousness of #Iran & its allies as they realize that military control don’t always translate into political control. This act depicts fear of loss of control. #Khadimi is now perceived as a Trojan horse for more erosion of Iran’s grip on #Iraq.”