1• #Israel’s strike on #Iran (announced & awaited by all) came below what was expected by many.
Both in magnitude (limited to Teheran & vicinity) & in targets (see possible menus in maps below -#nuclear, #energy-; choice was ultimately limited to “classical” military assets).
2• Was it an #Israeli self-limitation (for reasons yet to understand: either reluctance to go up escalation ladder, or preliminary message of something more to come?), or a #US sustained effort to keep things under a cap?

Next weeks/months will tell.

After the Beirut strike against a #Hezbollah high-ranking commander & the Teheran strike that killed #Hamas’ leading figure #Haniyeh, what to expect re-the regional conflict dynamics, & how to read #Israel #Netanyahu’s risky calculations?

Some of my takes in this thread 🧵👇🏻 1-It is now obvious that #Netanyahu is resolute to torpedo all chances for a ceasefire/hostage deal in Gaza.
It is also obvious that he is still trying, as he persistently did since Oct.7,to engulf the region in a global confrontation,& to drag the #US into a regional war w Iran.

⁦@IMFNews⁩’ ArtIV mission to #Lebanon concluded w this stark statement (in a presser no Lebanese official attended).

A last wake-up call before ultimate act of homicide this country’s mafiacracy is committing vs its people in order to save its a*s.. imf.org/en/News/Articl… «#Lebanon is at a dangerous crossroads, & w/out rapid reforms will be mired in a never-ending crisis. A continuation of the status quo & additional delays in implementing reforms will keep the economy depressed, with irreversible consequences for the whole country.»

Notable flare-up of strikes & counter-strikes at #Syria/#Iraq border; between #US & #Iran proxies.

(? Timing ?
in the wake of #Saudi-Iranian rapprochement; & few days after serious steps of Saudi-#Assad normalization). theguardian.com/world/2023/mar… #US airstrikes on facilities used by #Iran’s proxies came in retaliation to a drone strike in north-east #Syria that killed a US contractor & injured five American troops.
Strikes killed six fighters at an arms depot in the Harabesh neighbourhood in the city of #Deir_Ezzor.

Normalizing #Assad; cntn’d…

“#Syria & #Saudi_Arabia have agreed to reopen their embassies after cutting diplomatic ties more than a decade ago; a step that would mark a leap forward in Damascus's return to the Arab fold.” reuters.com/world/middle-e… “The decision was the result of talks in #Saudi_Arabia with a senior #Syrian intelligence official.
A Gulf diplomat said a high-ranking Syrian intelligence official "stayed for days" in Riyadh & agreement was struck to reopen embassies "very soon".”

En guise de cadeau de Noël,l’inimitable Gouverneur de la #Banque_Centrale #Libanaise livre (par les bons soins d’@Entreprendre & d’@Icibeyrouthnews) à ses compatriotes & au monde un beau paquet d’énormités surréalistes.

Florilège & morceaux choisis plus bas;texte intégral aussi: Et pan dans le bec du @IMFNews @IMFLive !

The failed assassination attempt vs #IraqiPM #Kadhimi calls for several observations:
• 1st contextual element: Recent Iraqi elections were clear setback for #Iran (w/out really strengthening the PM’s own constituency; while strengthening #Muqtada_Sadr, a volatile actor).
(1) (2)
• This has triggered 2 opposite effects:
- need for #Iran & #PMF to reassert control & preeminence on #Iraqi scene (by use of violence among other means).
- (vs) temptation by rivals (mainly #Gulf) to (over?)read setback as a net advantage in their favor.

The #Middle_East after Kabul’s fall; how reshaped?

“The #US withdrawal from #Afghanistan and the #Taliban's new leadership has brought about a multitude of surprising alliances.” haaretz.com/middle-east-ne… “Without #Qatar’s mediation and involvement, the #US withdrawal would likely have been much more violent and bloody.
Years ago, Qatar was “chosen” by the #Taliban to be the liaison between them and the United States.”

#Liban_Effondrement-
Autopsie d’une crise #économique systémique.
Une synthèse par ⁦@ishacdiwan⁩ pour ⁦@ifi_aub⁩ dont il est Senior Fellow: lorientlejour.com/article/127371… Cet article d’@ishacdiwan fait partie d’une série plus exhaustive sur les ressorts et impacts de la crise #Libanaise globale, et que @ifi_aub publie sur plusieurs semaines en collaboration avec @LOrientLeJour et @lorienttoday.

For anyone familiar with the inner workings of the #Assad regime (& the palace in particular) for the many last decades, this cannot be an anodine event…

https://twitter.com/ibrahimhamidi/status/1434268797955977222

More on “Abou-Salim”, #Assad’s (father & son) Chief of Staff, deceased yesterday:
annasnews.com/archives/39713

Derrière les rivalités…
“Alger et Rabat instrumentalisent dans les moments de graves crises la menace supposée que représente le voisin, pour contraindre leurs opposants au silence.”

#Algérie/#Maroc; une analyse intéressante (⁦@CERI_SciencesPo⁩) lemonde.fr/idees/article/… “Aux yeux du régime #algérien, il y a le ‘Hirak béni’, qui a permis de mettre un terme aux dérives mafieuses de la présidence Bouteflika, et le Hirak maudit’, qui revendique un changement de régime et qui serait soutenu -selon le pouvoir- par des forces ‘impérialo-sionistes’.”