Thread by @jobahout

The #Middle_East after Kabul’s fall; how reshaped?

“The #US withdrawal from #Afghanistan and the #Taliban's new leadership has brought about a multitude of surprising alliances.” haaretz.com/middle-east-ne…

“Without #Qatar’s mediation and involvement, the #US withdrawal would likely have been much more violent and bloody.
Years ago, Qatar was “chosen” by the #Taliban to be the liaison between them and the United States.”

“#Qatar became a key state in the #US’ relat w the Islamist group,& arranged the meeting bet @CIA chief #William_Burns & #Taliban. Qatar is now running negos w Taliban over safeguarding Kabul’s airport, which will enable Taliban to start rebuild #Afghanistan & forge int’l ties.”

“Thanks to #Qatar, #Turkey continues to be the sole candidate for running & securing the airport.
The #Taliban’s acquiescence to discuss managing the airport with Turkey also stems from Qatar’s influence.”

“The pullout from #Afghanistan yielded another surprising alliance. The #UAE has been having a secret affair w #Turkey for months.
After #Trump signed the withdrawal agreement w #Taliban, the UAE reexamined its relationships in the region.”

“For #Turkey, who has wanted to plant a foothold in the #Gulf for years but was rudely rejected, this is an import achievement. Bec when the #UAE renews relations w Istanbul, it will also impact #Egypt’s readiness to normalize ties w Turkey, which it had called an “enemy state”

“This makes statements of #Iran’s pres Raisi increasingly relevant, that forming rel w neighboring countries is his top diplo priority. He was talking mainly abt Iran’s rel w #SaudiArabia. Both have a new interest in cooperating in light of #Taliban’s takeover of #Afghanistan”

“#SaudiArabia fears Islamist orgs within its borders will be empowered,& #Iran is afraid that Sunni terror will spill over into its territory.Both have maintained good rel w #Taliban & financed its leadership & activity. Now they must ensure that their investment was not in vain”

“These kaleidoscopic shifts will require #Israel to examine its place in the newly-forming alignment. The idea that there’s a pro-#US bloc that provides Israel w a milit & diplo safety net & acts alongside it as an informal coalition against #Iran, is beginning to fall apart.”

“These new dilemmas are part of the #butterfly_effect the #Taliban has initiated, and are making it very clear that the peace agreements #Israel has signed with a number of #Afghan Arab states require diplomatic adjustments it didn’t need in the past.”