Progress on restoring April 2020 status quo ante in Ladakh, was interrupted by IA thwarting 2 aggressive PLA patrols across LOC & Xi's fear of ultra-nationalist reaction (before elevation to top pantheon of CCP), resumes. 60% probability of PLA, Hot-spring withdrawal, by Dec 31
https://twitter.com/Geeta_Mohan/status/1461303993934626818
3/pla Traditionally #PLA #Creeping #Acquisition has been attempted between the dotted lines(👇🏼). Since August 2020 all such attempts have been #successfully #resisted. All reported construction is in areas under PLA control for decades(ie btwn top line & next dotted line)
https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1459464509425291264
4/pla My understanding is, that in Sept '20- Feb '21, #PRC agreed to withdraw from all areas in Ladakh patrolled by both IA & PLA for decades (grey areas btwn dotted lines 👆🏼), & convert into no-mans land(neither will patrol henceforth)! [Ambiguity if dotted line changed 2010-19]
5/inch Completion of 👆🏼, is likely to b followed by drawdown of 60th troops on each side of Ladakh border. Serious border talks, will likely follow drawdown. Each stage is liable to b interrupted & partially reversed if Nationalists attack Xi for softness(or we show weakness)
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