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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
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13 Aug, 8 tweets, 11 min read
Let there be no mistake about it(Ilusion/delusion): #USA lost to #Pakistan its first 21st century #Hybrid #war. #Taliban was merely an instrument! This defeat should by a case study on how to win a Hybrid war against a (powerful) democracy!
2/hw #Hybrid #War Thread1
3/hw #Hybrid #War Thread2
4/hw Unless US experts abandon the illusion that the enemy was a bunch of semi-literate #Taliban insurgents and not the #Stratocracy (#Jehadi generals) of the #Islamic #Republic of #Pakistan, the lesson will never be learnt: amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/61…
5/hw If you ask the wrong question, you can never find the right answer
6/hw #Pakistan's #Hybrid #war against USA/NATO in Afg, started immediately after the #Taliban's #Islamic #Emirate was overthrown by the #USA. Since then its Information War has been highly effective in pulling the wool over US eyes! nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/afgh…
7/hw 👍🏼These would be excellent initial moves in #US defence against the decades old #Hybrid #War in #AfPak.👍🏼
8/hw The #Islamic #Republic of #Pakistan defeated the mighty #USA in a #HybridWar, which lasted ~20yrs (🧵). Can the #USA, which was helpless against a bankrupt nuclear #Stratocracy,@win a #Hybrid #War launched by an alliance of #China-#Pakistan-#Russia-#Iran (in next 20 years)?

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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
13 Aug
The #Pakistan #Army learned the lessons from the #Vietnam war and carefully controlled the Western #narrative and the level of aggression in Afghanistan, the #US military apparently didn't, and lived in an imaginary wonderland created by its friends in Pakistan!
2/usa #BeAware: Unless #US foreign policy experts learn the correct lessons from the US post-war experience in the Indian sub-continent (& Asia more generally), they cannot be trusted to give sensible advise on S Asia to the US congress and US govt
3/usa This is solid competition for #CCP🤡, but #PRC will still win hands down! 🤓
Read 6 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
28 Jul
In my judgement, the political correction started 3-6 months ago, so it's just a matter of spelling it out in diplomatic language, to the US Govt and Congress!
2/indus #PM's message is very clear: We can discuss shared values, including differences & nuances as friends/equals; But just as you resent foreign interference in your democratic processes, we resent foreign interference even more, because of our colonial history.
3/indus Greater effort to understand each other's views on issues on which there is a lot of ideological-political differences within each democracy (rather than to lecture from one perspective in one country to a different perspective in the other country)? 🧐🤔
Read 5 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
18 Jul
Superpower or 🤡? "Pakistan’s army & its Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) play key role in Taliban offensive. Without logistical support from Pakistan, the Taliban would be hard-pressed to operate in such a widespread way". epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TheE…
2/usa Superpower or 🤡? "Of course, Pakistan has been the Taliban’s patron since its creation in the 1990s.
It is impossible to defeat the Taliban as long as Pakistan provides sanctuary and safety, training, equipment and funds for the Taliban."..3/
3/usa #Clownanalysis101 🤡 "Pakistan cannot be defeated, as it is a nuclear-armed State and has the fifth-largest population in world. ...It is curious that Biden has so little to engage with Pakistan. He has yet to talk with Imran Khan." ☝🏼superpower is going to fight #China?😭
Read 61 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
1 Jul
Who lost Afghanistan? (1) Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld did not want to invest in the Afghan army—and by the end of 2003, just 6,000 Afghan soldiers had been trained. " ...2/
2/afpak (2)Taliban fled across the border to Pakistan, where they regrouped, raised funds, recruited in madrasahs & trained with Pakistan’s security service, Inter-Services Intelligence. Many ISI officers had worked with Taliban leaders for decades & shared their worldview..3/
3/afpak Pakistan’s role turned out to be fatal. Even as USA prosecuted its war in Afghanistan, those it fought found refuge & training in cntry next door. But #Bush admin turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s machinations; it provided it $12 bil (>$6bi reimbursement for military ops)"
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
30 Jun
"We ❤️ #FAANG #monopolists " Beware #Goebbles says :" If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." (Hint: Count how many times we have heard this same #theme, in the same #media, by the same #authors)
2/goe #Economics101: If in an industry, u create a counter to an existing monopoly, u turn it into a duopoly, if u create 2nd counter it becomes an oligopoly. The first step in creating completion. The second step is to create a regulatory system that fosters/promotes competition
3/goe #RegulatoryEc The danger to society from #Asymmetric info & #moral hazard in #Finance was 10x that of goods monopolies, the danger from #SocialMedia & #E-com monopolies is 10x that of Financial collapse! Need 21st C regulations for latter! 🙏🏼don't make it a partisan issue
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
10 Jun
Econ101: Any market economist who has worked on developing countries knows about the difference between social and economic return to investment, & how government must act based on this difference: Govt must invest directly or give financial incentives to private investors
2/* (correction) ….difference between social and private return ...
3/scba Difference btwn social & private return has to b larger than cost of intervention, incl inefficiency induced by taxation & the administrative costs(+corruption) of intervention. Beware of political benefits being mis-represented as social benefits. Benefit/cost <0 is posbl
Read 4 tweets

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