Thread by @rdv_analytics

#Segezha is largest Russian representative of #timber industry. Company benefits from world's drive to move away from deforestation. Foreign politicians have pledged to end deforestation by 2030.
$SGZH
bbc.com/news/science-e…

All over the world, area of ​​forests is decreasing, while in #Russia it is growing.
#Brazil, as one of largest timber producer, has pledged to end illegal logging, which will require aggressive reductions in forest harvesting.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.L…

Area of ​​forests in #Russia is growing and deforestation sometimes is necessary to grow systematically (to solve problem of fires, sufficient supply of light, etc.). In addition, 80% of #forests of Russia soft #woods, more suitable for production of packaging due to its density.

$SGZH becomes a unique manufacturer on a global scale. Demand for forest products will continue to grow, and only #Russia will be able to increase supply.
• demand for wooden houses is growing
• packaging (in light of e-com boom)
• paper replaces plastic everywhere.

#Segezha will be able to sell CO₂ certificates for #carbon emissions, earning RUB 5bn/year for 8.1MCUM of forest. Taking into account purchases of assets in Siberia, area of $SGZH increased to 23.6MCUM or 15bn/year - 50% of forecasted EBITDA in 2021.

Prices for #Segezha's products will be high:

• #Paper and #packaging: pre-holiday demand and growth in #ecommerce turnover.

• #Glulam: high demand for the construction of country houses - builders working in the suburban market are overwhelmed with work for years to come.

• #Plywood and sawn timber: a decline in 4Q may be possible amid falling activity in construction sector due to cold weather. But prices will continue to rise in 1-2Q2022 amid resumption of construction.

High prices for $SGZH products, organic growth in production, acquired assets in Siberia, the Segezha-West timber industry cluster and emissions trading provide #Segezha's shares 3.5 times growth by 2025.