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RDV Analytics

26 Nov, 6 tweets, 7 min read

🏗 Real estate boom will continue, capitalization of developers will grow, according to RDV sources.

Need for families in #Russia for real estate is so much higher than supply of #developers that prices for square meters will inexorably rise.
$SMLT $PIKK $LSRG $ETLN

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The volume of the #RealEstate market in 2020 amounted to more than 17 trillion rubles - this is the second consumer market in #Russia.

Growth potential of share of top 5 #developers is 250% - up to level of consolidation of #grocery retail market comparable in size. Along with growth of share of large players, their revenue is growing. Top 5 public developers include #Samolet, #PIK and #LSR.
$SMLT $PIKK $LSRG

Developers will continue to build and earn a lot. In #Russia, and especially in #Moscow, provision with housing is 2-3 times lower than in #Germany, #China, #USA etc. Russians will continue to improve their living conditions, market growth potential is more than 100%.

The penetration of mortgages in #Russia is still low. Only ~5 mln families - 11% of the population have a #mortgage. In the next decade, the number of mortgages may double. The demand for housing is turning into sales from #developers.

You may find more:
#Samolet $SMLT: putinomics.com/dashboard/SMLT…

#PIK $PIKK: putinomics.com/dashboard/PIKK…

#LSR $LSRG: putinomics.com/dashboard/LSRG…

#Etalon $ETLN: putinomics.com/dashboard/ETLN…

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@rdv_analytics

25 Nov

#Gazprom, the Russian #gas giant, could make record profits and generate 15% dividend yield over current price. #ONGT $GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY

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On Monday, $GAZP will publish 3Q financials, which will be highest in company's history.
Record profit = record dividend:
RUB 50 - dividend per share at the end of 2021, 15% per annum (RDV calculations).
RUB 110 - amount of #dividends for 2 years - 33% of current value of shares.

Record reporting by #Gazprom may trigger a rise in shares above historic highs.

According to the calculations of the RDV source, the fair price of Gazprom shares is 455 rubles, the growth potential is +44%.

$GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY

Read 6 tweets

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@rdv_analytics

24 Nov

#Segezha is largest Russian representative of #timber industry. Company benefits from world's drive to move away from deforestation. Foreign politicians have pledged to end deforestation by 2030.
$SGZH
bbc.com/news/science-e…

All over the world, area of forests is decreasing, while in #Russia it is growing.
#Brazil, as one of largest timber producer, has pledged to end illegal logging, which will require aggressive reductions in forest harvesting.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.L…

Area of forests in #Russia is growing and deforestation sometimes is necessary to grow systematically (to solve problem of fires, sufficient supply of light, etc.). In addition, 80% of #forests of Russia soft #woods, more suitable for production of packaging due to its density.

Read 8 tweets

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@rdv_analytics

10 Nov

💸 Is hyperinflation a reality? How to protect yourself?

Money may well depreciate at times. This has already happened before, even in developed countries. #Inflation in developed world is accelerating, and the authorities are carried away by populism.

• In the #US, inflation has already accelerated to 6.2%
• In #Germany, it reached a 28-year high of 4.5%.

Authorities of developed countries put above #inflation problems of #SocialJustice in labor market (employment in all minority groups is important) and #climate warming.

Populist views are capturing the minds of monetary authorities, which only fuels #inflation. This was the case in the #USA in the 1970s: prices almost tripled.
And sometimes it was much worse: in Israel in the 1980s, prices for goods jumped ~10,000 times.

Read 10 tweets

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