As armed groups block the Radisson to stop the HCS from gathering, it’s a good time to wonder about the rationale of Khaled al-#Meshri this year.

W/out even holding a proper HCS vote, #Meshri gave Aqila the HCS’s blessing — ie a consequential endorsement of Bashagha.

[ thread ]
This year, #Meshri & Mohammed Sowan have been 100% behind Bashagha.

The latter’s connection to the #Ikhwan, of course, has been long-standing but Feb 2021’s events do help understand the present better.

A year ago—in Geneva—the Bashagha-Saleh ticket was backed by Meshri & Sowan
When #Dabaiba became PM-elect, Saleh’s sympathizers & Egypt- & UAE-based pundits called Dabaiba pro-#Ikhwan.

This was highly inaccurate.

Dabaiba had gone 𝒂𝒈𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒔𝒕 the #Ikhwan.

Dabaiba’s friends in the political Islam milieu have been Sallabi & Muqatilah, 𝒏𝒐𝒕 #Ikhwan.
Bearing that Feb 2021 precedent in mind is useful to anyone looking to understand why Meshri is so deeply against Dabaiba & pro-Aqila at this juncture.

Dabaiba as PM neglected the Ikhwan & gave them no ministry.

Will the #Ikhwan do better cohabiting w/ Haftar, Buzeriba, et al.?
In all cases, a Prime Min Bashagha will be a huge win for #Morocco’s diplomats who’ve been investing time & energy on this Saleh-#Ikhwan compact since Apr 2018, when Meshri emerged as Swehli’s successor at the HCS’s helm.

Almost 4 yrs of Moroccan mediation that may pay off big…

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More from @JMJalel_H

May 19, 2022
Further clashes are bound to unfold soon in #Tripolitania.

Because:

• some #local rivalries have become too tense.

#macro fault lines have shifted too far away from #Libya’s Jun 2020 equilibrium, which so many policymakers & watchers take for granted;

[ see 🧵 thread👇🏻]
One must, right off the bat, acknowledge the outsized importance of #Zawiyah actors in today’s NW Libya configuration.

The most zealous pro-Dabaiba fighters on 5/17 in #Tripoli were led by #Bahrun.

& the #Buzeriba forces (who didn’t fight on 5/17) are ferociously anti-Dabaiba.
Other #local antagonisms that became evident on 5/17 in Tripoli include Mustafa Qaddur’s animosity vs. his #Mukhabarat superior & Dabaiba ally Hussein al-#Ayeb.

Nawassi — which holds a major grudge against Bahrun, too — coordinates w/ Buzeriba & Wershefana’s Muammar al-Dhawi. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 17, 2022
[ thread 🧵 on the NOC’s LFB account ]

In late May 2019, Belqacem Haftar visited DC in a bid to secure U.S. assistance in setting up a mechanism meant to deposit $$$ proceeds from #oil exports into a special account in lieu of sending them straight to the CBL in Tripoli.
The next year, in the summer of 2020, the US & the UN endorsed the idea of preventing oil $$$ proceeds from being funneled directly & systematically to the CBL in Tripoli.

But the rationale now promoted was not the one advocated by Haftar & his associates.
In 2020, international diplomats began suggesting the formation of a special #committee overseeing the equitable & transparent distribution of oil #revenues among the three provinces, & among essential #budget categories.

Said #committee would be above the govt & above the CBL.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 6, 2022
[ thread🧵]

Is a protracted #stalemate burgeoning in Libya?

PM #Bashagha took his oath in Tobruk a month ago—& he still hasn’t swept into office or begun governing.

He himself told the media about the physical act of #entering Tripoli “w/in days”, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Bashagha & his ministers entering Tripoli soon is w/in the realm of the possible.

But the thing is, That won’t necessarily be enough to discard Dabaiba.

I.e., entering Tripoli won’t necessarily put an end to the current crisis.

A slew of profound issues are still outstanding.
A big chunk of opinion & sentiment in both Tripoli & Misrata remains skeptical about Bashagha.

Latter has been making a bit of progress but there’s still a gap.

Plus, the passage of time alone isn’t doing all that work for free, *no matter* how isolated & weak Dabaiba looks.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 8, 2022
The war in #Ukraine will bring a sea change in the #Libyan crisis

#JeuneAfrique kindly included a few of my thoughts on why observers really ought to brace for substantial side effects, not just minor ones.

[ thread on the #Russia facet of the #Libya reality c. 2022 ]
Since the Feb. 24 launch of the invasion of Ukraine, apart from lots of unfounded speculation, there’s been not a shred of evidence to suggest any number of #Russian fighters have left Libya.

In fact, over the last several months, the number of Russians in #Brak has increased.
Historically, 1 of the top reasons #Russia has acquired a clandestine #military presence in #Libya is the fact that it’s key strategic territory on #NATO’s southern flank. The #Ukraine crisis of 2014 deepened the Kremlin’s perception of NATO as hostile to Russia’s core interests.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 1, 2022
[thread]

The possibility of a #parallel govt — capable of rallying several presidential candidates & other anti-Dabaiba forces — has been pre-announced by #Aqila for months.

Such an entity may indeed emerge now.

Beyond symbolism & posturing, will it affect the current reality?
Militarily, bcos Dabaiba has secured the mobilization of Mahjub, Halbus, & al-Jahawi, Bashagha won’t be in a position to contribute much in Misrata, Tajura, or Tripoli itself.

For the #parallel govt to create pain for Dabaiba, it’ll have to consider being in cahoots w/ the #SSA.
In the eventuality above, a new #parallel govt may pull off truly bothersome disruptions in the greater #Tripoli area, but Dabaiba will not be removed from power by force in the foreseeable future.

No can do.

The Turkish-backed setup now protecting the PM is just too formidable
Read 8 tweets
Aug 8, 2021
[ Thread on #Libya wage bill ]

One paradox this year in #Libya has been the fact that the #CentralBankOfLibya has handed #Haftar & others in the #East some very substantial gifts over recent weeks—all in the form of salaries.

Most of it is counterintuitive, so let me parse it.
As of 2010, less than 1 million public servants in #Libya were on state payroll.

By 2014, that statistic had exceeded 1.8mm. All of this was before the Karama-vs.-Fajr civil war.

A watershed moment was the autumn 2014 emergence of a parallel govt in #Barqa. More would be hired.
The CBL never quit paying the Eastern-based Libyans who were already on payroll in 2014. But ignored those newly hired by the East.

As of 2020, the total nbr of public servants in #Libya stood at about 2.4mm.

That is a jump of ~600k employees added btwn 2014 & 2021 nationwide.
Read 6 tweets

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