All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
1/5
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.
If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??
2/5
As for the belated recognition that the disease has now metastasized to a wide range of raw inputs & production goods -increasingly to now-operative services as well as classic #inflation outlets- we were emphasising this well over a year ago while you were all “#transitory”
3/5
As for you appeasers & special-pleaders, bleating that hikes can not cure a supply-side problem, can you not see that elevated monetary demand makes the scarcity sharper, more widespread, longer lasting?
We are poorer than we were pre-#COVID19: real rates must reflect that! 4/5
If you sit back and encourage further credit creation in order to maintain the illusion that more expensive goods can be bought in unchanged volumes, you are like shipwrecked sailors issuing invitations to a banquet served from the scanty, rescued supplies which washed ashore 5/5
Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
2/14
The bet is that #energy cannot *possibly* rise as far and fast this year as last, but what about all the other inputs? To what extent are these and other costs yet to be passed on?
Alternatively, ask how the vast monetary overhang, created over the past two years, is going to be dissipated.
If not frozen in place as savings, or used to pay down debt, or miraculously promoting new production, it will continue to raise prices until its real value levels out.
Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.
Additionally, policy responses will typically aggravate the disease. Taxes, subsidies, price caps, rationing - all are likely PLUS a fisc so readily backstopped by the CB will plug budget gaps with MORE money creation & also try to buy off unemployment waves. Vicious circle time.
Many thanks to my old friend @steve_sedgwick & @SquawkCNBC for having me on this morning.
What did we talk about? What else but #inflation & the #Fed & the outook for next year?
This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-
1/x
Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-
If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre
The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -
- the looming, lifetime injections, the passes, the media witch-hunts: all carefully calculated to provoke the Tall Poppies to present their fragile stems to the neo-feudalist, techno-fascist blade being wielded by the #Davocracy’s venal -or vicious- host of societal Reapers -
We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.
A few charts & comments for background:-
2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.
3/ #JeromePowell and his merry band may wish to believe that the rise is a mere blip, but all too many businessmen & women (i.e., the people who *really* matter) seem to believe the converse is the case.