Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #transitory

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Stocks $SPY off to a strong start so far in 2023, gaining ~2% in first 5 days

- is this important?
- actually, it’s a big deal
For 2023, pundits all reading off same menu:

- Fed gonna crush every rally until job market cracks + EPS going to fall in ‘23

- consensus thus, stocks fall in first half to 3,000 (S&P 500) and then maybe stocks recover to “flat” by YE
Several issues with this consensus view:

- stocks rarely “flat” after a year (11% instances) and far more likely to rise >20% (53% of time)

- volatility matters more than EPS = Fed is key

- we see roadmap for volatility to sink sharply in 2023, already happened with bonds
Read 6 tweets
All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.

If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??

As for the belated recognition that the disease has now metastasized to a wide range of raw inputs & production goods -increasingly to now-operative services as well as classic #inflation outlets- we were emphasising this well over a year ago while you were all “#transitory
Read 6 tweets
What can cause the market to crash 70%+? I've been thinking more and more about this question as almost nobody, except @DaveHcontrarian, thinks it's a possibility.

Important thread⬇️for anyone invested in $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ #FANG or any other risk asset.
Let's start off by saying that I am in no way giving advice on what to do to prepare for a potential crash in the markets.

I am only giving my thoughts on what could happen that would lead to a massive correction and how I would not be surprised if it did.
Let's take a step back and look at the current environment:
-> Retail speculation at all time highs, look at any highly leveraged stock with worthless equity and madness going on in #crypto land and #NFTs
-> #liquidity near alltime highs, consumers flush with cash from stimmys
Read 16 tweets
Today’s robust #inflation data surprised in its strength and will likely persist in the short-run, and in some areas the intermediate-term, although we think that long-term the @federalreserve is largely correct in identifying real #economy price gains as mostly #transitory.
Much of today’s #inflation is due to reopening factors and supply constraints, but as #SupplyChains normalize from Covid-related shocks and #inventories rebuild, we expect much of the recent inflation will be transitory, with some stickiness in pricing pressure longer-run. Image
That may be especially the case where #inventory levels are harder to build up quickly and continued #demand from higher levels of #growth persist for at least the next year, or so.
Read 9 tweets
0 for 14.

That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.

0 for 14

My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?

Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.

Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record
Hence, why my preferred framework is:

"Deflation, punctuated with spasms of inflation"

Read 40 tweets
Ciao Bernie...l'unica differenza con MarioD... è che lui poteva creare liquidità dal nulla e tu no...👽

Colui che è responsabile primo della morte di migliaia di persone...con la sua gestione criminale a base di "tachipirina e vigile attesa"...non solo deve essere rimosso ma deve finire la sua vita al gabbio

Read 490 tweets

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