Thread by @CantillonCH

Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

1/14

Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
2/14

The bet is that #energy cannot *possibly* rise as far and fast this year as last, but what about all the other inputs? To what extent are these and other costs yet to be passed on?

#PPI #CPI

3/14

US Households have acquired perhaps $3.5 trillion in extra money this past two years, roughly equivalent to the weekly wage of 1/4 of the workforce. It's gotta go *somewhere*!

#inflation #QE6 #Banks
4/14

The #Fed is so far behind the curve that a plane-wreck seems inevitable, yet the market still only wants to contemplate a 2-2 1/4% peak in the #Funds rate, similar to that of 2018/19.
5/14

The same witches' brew confronts many of the #Fed's peers. The inordinate laxity of the past two years, compounding the errors accumulated since Lehman collapsed, is rapidly turning hubris to Nemesis.

Take the #ECB & #bankofengland, for instance:-

6/14

Shed a tear for the #Bundesbank of old. Never have real #yields been so low and nor, for decades, have price rises been as rapid.

#Bunds
7/14

Ditto the UK, where YOY price indices just hit new, multi-decade highs and where - as #JeromePowell said of the US - "It's a long way back to normal".

#BOE #bankofengland #Gilts #baserate

8/14

No wonder, then, that #stocks are starting to look shaky. Everyone's aboard the same unsinkable ship; #hedgefund hotels are full to capacity' valuations are, in many cases, extreme.

Time for a classic February reversal/rout?
9/14

Everyone's sweetheart could easily turn into the vengeful ex who cuts up your suits, then gets the keys both to the McMansion *and* the car in the drive.

#Nasdaq $QQQ $NDX

10/14

All of which means that the latest round in the battle between Electrons and Protons-Neutrons has clearly been won by the latter. Break this support and another lurch down is in prospect.
#commodities #Tech #FAANG #GSCI

11/14

#TBonds meanwhile have any number of juicy targets for resurrected #Bond market vigilantes to shoot for.

Just try not to get too badly wounded in the inevitable short squeezes as the larger movement progresses.

#UST $TLT

12/14

Ditto #Bunds.

I bet #Draghi is happy he only has #Berlusconi with whom to wrestle these days and not the fearsome Furies of Fixed Income.

13/14

NOT trading or investment advice. Mumble, mumble.

***THE END***

14/14

@threadreaderapp please unroll