1/ On #sanctions and #Russia. Nothing in the package has a characteristic of a "bomb", they are rather like flames. The longer they hold the more they hurt, and if lifted, they cease to hurt and most of the damage is lifted.
Apply them now, lift if behavioural improvement.
Apply them now, lift if behavioural improvement.
2/ Big difference btw deterrence and leverage. Best deterrent causes acute damage once, like a military strike. Best leverage is enduring damage over time.
Sanctions = leverage, not deterrence.
Forget trigger condition. Formulate condition for lifting.
Sanctions = leverage, not deterrence.
Forget trigger condition. Formulate condition for lifting.
3/
a/ If RU seeks imperial restoration and confrontation (assumption), sanction now and further measures later for our security & defence capabilities.
b/ If RU has minor Ukraine objective but wants business w. EU (alt assumption), then sanctions now, RU will change behaviour.
a/ If RU seeks imperial restoration and confrontation (assumption), sanction now and further measures later for our security & defence capabilities.
b/ If RU has minor Ukraine objective but wants business w. EU (alt assumption), then sanctions now, RU will change behaviour.
4/ If sanctions are tied to war, then:
If RU stays below threshold, RU goes unpunished. They will play game again.
If RU goes for war anyway, we will do same sequence as under 3/ a/ but with unhelpful delay.
Plus: risk to credibility of our resolve
=> do sanctions now
END
If RU stays below threshold, RU goes unpunished. They will play game again.
If RU goes for war anyway, we will do same sequence as under 3/ a/ but with unhelpful delay.
Plus: risk to credibility of our resolve
=> do sanctions now
END
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