Peter Zeihan Profile picture
Mar 2 9 tweets 4 min read
Here's the UNGA vote on condemning Russia. A few thoughts.
1/ #Syria. No shocker how they voted. But the remaining Russian forces there are about to be cut off from...everything. #Turkey has already closed the Turkish Straits to Russian ships. Wanna kill some Russians without going to Ukraine? Here's your opportunity.
2/ #Mongolia abstained. While not technically a Russian satellite, they remain under heavy Russian influence. Arguably heavier than during the Soviet period. Really cheeses off the Chinese.
3/ #Vietnam abstained. The Vietnamese HATE China, and see Russia as a foil. I may find that view outdated, but it works for Hanoi.
4/ With the exception of #Belarus (which has functionally been annexed by Russia), not one of Russia's "allies" in the CSTO voted for Moscow. That's got to...annoy.
5/ #Nicaragua abstained. <<Ortega>> abstained. Simply the US bringing the resolution forward would normally be enough for Nicaragua to oppose it. I'm sure there's a story there. No idea what it is. (It really is just Tucker Carlson left in Putin's camp.)
6/ Both #Pakistan & #India abstained. #China is Pak's biggest backer, so no shock. India still sees itself as non-aligned unless it has to do with China. The US is unlikely to forget, however. If India is interested in only very narrow relationships, the #Quad may become the Trio
7/ Fair number of #SubSaharanAfrica abstentions. No surprise there. I'd prefer to not take sides in a white-on-what either if I were black. But not nearly as many abstains as I would have guessed. Russia's actions really are touching folks' nerves.
8/ #Iraq abstained. If you needed more evidence that the US failed in reshaping Iraq's political map, here it is.

9/ #Afghanistan voted YES. Might be an interesting basis to draw a line under the past 25 years of US-Afghan policy

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More from @PeterZeihan

Mar 1
Here's one of many snapshots of that 40 mile long traffic jam of Russian heavy equipment. Some thoughts:

First, it'll take longer for it to get where its going than you think. This isn't the Canadian trucker convoy where they could stop for fuel as they goal...

1/
They have to bring their own. 40 MILES of vehicles will move vvvvvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy sssssssssssslllllllllllooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllyyyy. Military vehicles like tanks get about 1 mile per gallon. They'll likely all run out of fuel multiple times.

2/
And the convoy is so long and moving so slow that every time one vehicle stops, EVERY VEHICLE BEHIND IT MUST STOP AS WELL. I can explain away much of what has gone wrong for Russia in the war to date as it simply being the first week...

3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
Lots here. General update:

1/ The Russian advanced into #Kharkiv, up in northeast #Ukraine and hard on the Russian border, was chopped to bits
wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
2/ Ukraine is forming an international branch of their "military "which will make it much easier for anyone in the world and wants to come and join the fight to do so
3/ #Kiev again repulsed a Russian assault. Once Russian armor was dispatched, Kiev spent the night purging itself of Russian foot soldiers
4/ Russian armor is flowing in from #Belarus on multiple vectors, with the intent of hitting Kiev from multiple directions
Read 5 tweets
Feb 26
DW dumped everything they had into a single article. In no particular order.
1/ The French have started seizing Russian cargo ships on the high seas. That's kinda badass. Very pre-WWI.
dw.com/en/ukraine-hea…
2/ Heavy fighting near Mariupol. Russian forces are pushing out of those eastern secessionist enclaves with the goal of linking up with Crimea.
3/ Facebook decided that while they are fine posting xenophobic and genocidal propaganda from China, actual war propaganda is a step too far. Facebook has barred all Russian entities from putting up ads on their platform.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 23
1/
In light of all the Ukraine goings on, I'm posting some maps from The Absent Superpower.
2/
From the US point of view, Ukraine is not what matters. Instead, its what happens after the Russians have consolidated control over Ukraine & turn to their next targets: Poland and the Baltics.
3/
Russia sees these conquerings as defensive. Russians are attempting to plug the access point to their heartlands. In Absent Superpower I broke these efforts into a series of phases. By my math we are now in phase 3.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
1/
Quick sequence of some of my favorite #Russia graphics so you can familiarize yourself with the scope of what is unfolding vis-a-vis #Ukraine. Russians live in the green. The wheat belt. The part of Russia that has temperature and rainfall levels to make habitation possible.
2/
Compare that to the #populationdensity map so you know I'm not lying.
3/
Russia's problem is - Russia's problem HAS ALWAYS BEEN - there are no good barriers near the populated zones to keep invaders at bay. The Russian goal is - the Russian goal HAS ALWAYS BEEN - to expand their footprint until they reach such barriers. Those barriers are in red.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 31
Short personal story. Im immunocompromised & I am vaccinated and boosted. Got my Covid shots as soon as I could. Vaccination in March and April of last year, booster in September. 10 days ago I woke up with a sore throat. Tis flu season so I didn't think much about it.
1/
But the next day was… Less fun. Bodyaches, chills, fever, bit of a cough. I've certainly been sicker in my life, but it's not something I aim for. I speak to groups of people for a living, so being patient zero for any sort of outbreak is a big no-no.
2/
Day 3 was pretty miserable. Called the doctor and was told it would be five days before I would be able to get in. The system was totally overwhelmed and they had no Covid tests. They also said they would not see me without a Covid test.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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