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Quick sequence of some of my favorite #Russia graphics so you can familiarize yourself with the scope of what is unfolding vis-a-vis #Ukraine. Russians live in the green. The wheat belt. The part of Russia that has temperature and rainfall levels to make habitation possible.
2/ Compare that to the #populationdensity map so you know I'm not lying.
3/ Russia's problem is - Russia's problem HAS ALWAYS BEEN - there are no good barriers near the populated zones to keep invaders at bay. The Russian goal is - the Russian goal HAS ALWAYS BEEN - to expand their footprint until they reach such barriers. Those barriers are in red.
4/ So the thinking goes. Russian forces cannot possibly defend the heartland from inside the barriers. But if Russian forces can reach the barriers, they can plug the gaps between them. Those gateways are the blue arrows.
5/ Think the Russians don't need to command those gaps? Look at the #Texas overlay. Russia is BIG and it has less than half America's population. It's forward position or die.
6/ The Soviet Union controlled all nine of these gaps, making it the most secure Russia has ever been. Putin's ongoing wars and "peacekeeping" missions have stationed Russian troops in another five. Ukraine is unfortunate to be on the road to two more.
7/ Russia was ALWAYS going to invade Ukraine. The question - the ONLY question - was timing. And for those of you who like to look forward, check out where the remaining gaps are...
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1/ In light of all the Ukraine goings on, I'm posting some maps from The Absent Superpower.
2/ From the US point of view, Ukraine is not what matters. Instead, its what happens after the Russians have consolidated control over Ukraine & turn to their next targets: Poland and the Baltics.
3/ Russia sees these conquerings as defensive. Russians are attempting to plug the access point to their heartlands. In Absent Superpower I broke these efforts into a series of phases. By my math we are now in phase 3.
Short personal story. Im immunocompromised & I am vaccinated and boosted. Got my Covid shots as soon as I could. Vaccination in March and April of last year, booster in September. 10 days ago I woke up with a sore throat. Tis flu season so I didn't think much about it.
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But the next day was… Less fun. Bodyaches, chills, fever, bit of a cough. I've certainly been sicker in my life, but it's not something I aim for. I speak to groups of people for a living, so being patient zero for any sort of outbreak is a big no-no.
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Day 3 was pretty miserable. Called the doctor and was told it would be five days before I would be able to get in. The system was totally overwhelmed and they had no Covid tests. They also said they would not see me without a Covid test.
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Here is where the US currently stands with vaccinations. Just a touch over 64% of us are fully vaxxed. (Data is a bit wobbly because it relies upon states reporting regularly, which they do not always do.) 3/ usafacts.org/visualizations…
1/ Quick US military thread:
Military COVID vaccine deadlines start today (active duty Air Force) and continue on service-by-service, active-then-reserve, into next June.
2/ The U.S. military is the most vaccinated population on the planet, and the mandate isn’t so far meeting meaningful resistance.
There 2.1m servicepeople. So far only a small single-digit thousand have applied for exemptions.
3/ Zero religious exceptions have been granted as <no> religions represented in the military have a problem with vaccines.
<All> medical exceptions granted are temporary (pregnancy, undergoing surgery, etc). Once the temporary conditions are passed, the mandate kicks back in.
1/ I had the opportunity during the past couple of days to have lengthy chats with both #United and #Southwest pilots. So this is both a bit of an explainer for what happened with Southwest’s weekend from hell as well as corporate #VaccineMandates writ large.
2/ Southwest has had just as many problems restaffing since May as the other carriers. (Note: the airline w the worst record on this is American. They sold tickets as if everything was going to be normal, but failed to staff to meet demand. The worst seems to be behind them now)
3/ Southwest always runs a lean ship. They have very few extra crews to step in when there is a problem. They also count on crews picking up extra shifts, because oftentimes pilot earns double pay. #NiceIfYouCanGetIt
Demographics are about the balance between young and old. Young folks do the work and raise the kids. They are the consumers.
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China had scads in that group in the 2000s. When Americans look at this they see waves of cheap workers stealing global jobs. When the politburo looks they see waves of consumption overturning global norms. Both were right. Were. Past tense.
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20 years later not only is everyone 20 years older, but the Chinese had very few kids during the intervening 20 years. China's labor costs are now skyrocketing, and in productivity-adjusted terms are well below American workers. & the Mao generation is moving into retirement.