Thread by @leonickroberts

Thread alert!🧵 Myself and @E3G colleagues had been toying around with writing a blog summarising the impacts of the #Russia/Ukraine crisis on the global #coal-to-clean transition, when it was pointed out that any such blog would be outdated and irrelevant within days.

Instead, we’ve decided to pull together a regularly updated meta-thread bringing together the sharpest analysis out there. A few caveats to kick things off…

The Russian invasion of #Ukraine is clearly a very fluid situation, and at the centre of it lies a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions. People are dying and lives ruined. This is *not* something to refer to as an ‘opportunity’ (looking at some #climate commentators, here).

Despite this, the crisis is already fundamentally re-shaping global #energy markets and both political and public discourses on energy. We need to understand these impacts if we’re to also deal with that other massive existential threat, #ClimateChange.

There’s a spectacular amount of great analysis out there, so this thread is in no way comprehensive. We’re just aiming to bring a selection of pieces together in one place as a resource for analysts, civil society, media, diplomats and anyone else.

We’ll be focusing primarily on the #powersector, with special attention paid to the impacts of the crisis on the most polluting #fossilfuel: #coal (noting that it's not possible to treat any fuel in isolation - the energy transition needs to be seen holistically).

This is a European war, but a global crisis. The rapid energy diversification taking place in #Europe is achievable because of the huge wealth of the region. Poorer countries in the Global South do not have this luxury, and face arguably bigger #energy and development challenges.

As such, we’ll aim to balance actions and rhetoric in the #EU with coverage of the impacts of the crisis on energy planning and decisions around the world, and particularly in the #GlobalSouth.

We’ll keep this running for as long as it's useful. If you come across or write anything that you would like added, please fire it over and we’ll drop it in. Thanks to contributors and all the expert analysts out there for such good work trying to unpick the chaos and complexity.

So without further ado, here are a few bits and pieces to get you started:

First, @NTsafos’ great thread on how quickly Europe is moving on decarbonisation. 10 days old now, but gives a handy sense of how rapidly rich countries are capable of acting to reduce reliance on #fossil fuels when really pushed.

https://twitter.com/ntsafos/status/1505248550975938560

And as friends & colleagues from @e3g, @Bellona_EU, @EmberClimate @RegAssistProj show, the EU can get off Russian gas by 2025 *without extending the life of coal power assets*:

https://twitter.com/e3g/status/1506560730568478731

Perhaps worth a reminder that while the invasion has created energy market and policy chaos, the structural factors driving #decarbonisation of the power sector haven't gone anywhere, and in many cases have been exacerbated.

Plummeting #solar & #wind LCOEs, growing economic headwinds to #coal (fuel prices, pollution controls, carbon pricing etc) are all more salient to energy policy/planning than ever before. India's stranded coal assets are a great example (@ieefa_institute): cleantechnica.com/2021/09/04/iee…

This 😘👌analysis from @transition_zer0 captures things nicely. I mean, just look at this chart. Absolutely wild. transitionzero.org/blog/russia-di…

The market share of wind and solar also increased significantly last year, as @EmberClimate’s latest Global Electricity Review shows. Even ignoring #energysecurity, #renewables are cheap and getting cheaper. #Fossilfuels are pricy and getting pricier.

https://twitter.com/EmberClimate/status/1509055322454994945

Meanwhile, #coal prices are at record highs as countries try to guarantee non-Russian supplies (either because of sanctions, or for fear that Russia will cut off exports). This makes #coalpower, which was already v expensive, wildly uncompetitive. nytimes.com/2022/03/15/bus…

In #OECD countries, if the question is whether to keep existing coal fleets running to provide the headroom to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy systems, the answer is...there's no need, guys (see above analysis from @Ember et al). independent.co.uk/climate-change…

The emissions impacts of this are unclear, but given the array of coal exit commitments from most (not all) OECD countries, it’s still likely most of the group will be out of coal by ~2030. And a shift to #renewables/storage instead of #gas? Accelerated #decarbonisation is good.

Obviously some countries smell profits from bolstering coal exports. Here’s longtime #coal exit advocate and all-round good guy @antonioguterres Will Smith-ing #Australia's lack of climate ambition, and continued pro-coal rhetoric: theguardian.com/australia-news…

Australia’s aspirations to boost exports to plug the gap left by Russian coal come despite increasingly public acknowledgement that coal-fired power could be over in Aus inside a decade (@ProfTerryHughes):

https://twitter.com/ProfTerryHughes/status/1499866325862469635

Back in the #EU, energy market structures have left some of the world’s biggest polluters (coal utilities) requiring bailouts. Another neat reminder that #fossilfuel market volatility creates expensive turmoil, even in rich countries:

https://twitter.com/Pieter_de_Pous/status/1503436848827355136

#China seems to have been pursuing an ‘all of the above’ approach to electricity generation, having had a rough couple of years (e.g. blackouts in 2021 resulting from #coal power stations being switched off as coal prices made operations uneconomic).

As my excellent @E3G colleague @Byfordt points out, despite continued domestic expansion of coal power, any Chinese efforts to reduce reliance on #fossilfuel imports can only favour #renewableenergy in the medium-long term.

https://twitter.com/byfordt/status/1499808609747800066

This top thread by @_HannahRitchie explains exactly why Russia matter in terms of coal. Russia has the world’s 2nd-largest reserves after the US, and as the @EIAgov chart in this thread shows, lots of countries buy it:

https://twitter.com/_HannahRitchie/status/1496988886295326729