John Quakes Profile picture
Apr 5 9 tweets 11 min read
Why has a Western pivot away from #Russia's #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ triggered a chain reaction💥 of higher prices down the #Nuclear fuel cycle from enrichment SWU to conversion?🚀 Let me try to explain in a thread that lays out why #U3O8 & U #stocks are dominoes next in line.⏸️↗️➡️👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ Reactor operators are now trying to lock in alternate fuel supply ASAP to fill that 20% gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 Utilities' first line of attack is to line up alternate enrichment, launching a steep rise in demand & price for enrichment SWU & UF6 feed.⬆️👇4
4) To pivot away from #Russia's #uranium requires other enrichment plants in #USA & #EU to increase output ASAP.🏭 They've been in low demand with excess SWU capacity that's led to underfeeding = large secondary U supply⛏️ that's helped reduce the huge #Nuclear fuel deficit⚛️👇5
5) Skyrocketing demand for SWU enrichment & UF6 feed for US/EU enrichment plants has led to record-breaking spikes in #SWU & #UF6 prices.💲⬆️ Enrichers can't quickly add more enrichment capacity so instead flip from underfeeding to overfeeding of UF6 to get more EUP per SWU.🏭👇6
6) Overfeeding involves feeding more UF6 #uranium into centrifuges than supplied by #Nuclear fuel buyers, so enrichers go to Spot market & elsewhere to buy the extra UF6 needed, if available, spiking the prices for UF6 & for the conversion of #U3O8 to produce more UF6.💲⬆️ 👇7
7) Spiking demand & price for #Uranium conversion services to produce more #UF6 is likely to hasten restart of ConverDyn Metropolis conversion plant in #USA🏭 & ramping up of other #U3O8 conversion facilities in #France & #Canada that have been operating below capacity.⬆️⛏️ 👇8
8) Finally, at front-end of #Nuclear fuel cycle, the spike in demand for #U3O8 conversion will force buyers into the Spot #Uranium market to acquire as much mined U3O8 feed as possible🛒⛏️🚛 as fast as possible.⌛️ Chain reaction💥 likely to send U price & U #stocks soaring.🚀 👇9
9) End result: with ~200M lbs of #Uranium demand & only 135M lbs of mined supply, #Nuclear utilities were relying on 25M lbs secondary supply including ~20M lbs underfeeding.😟 But overfeeding flipped that to >20M lbs of new demand🔀 pushing U supply deficit to 80M+ lbs = U💲🛸🌜

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More from @quakes99

Mar 19
1) I see @BambroughKevin is saying we could see #Uranium prices skyrocket "2x-3x in just a couple of weeks as #USA is poised to ban Russian uranium".🤯 While impossible to accurately predict "how high"🌜🪐 here's a thread on why U prices would spike on a US/EU or Russian ban.👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ A ban would force operators to find alternate sources ASAP to fill the resulting supply gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets
Mar 13
1) Long before #Russia, world's main enriched #Uranium supplier, sent shock waves thru #Nuclear fuel markets😱 by invading #Ukraine🪖 mined #U3O8 was already in a sustained deficit⬇️⛏️ with demand for #CarbonFree Nuclear surging.⬆️🏗️⚛️ A Uranium #investing thesis thread 4U🤠🐂👇2
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering investors extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😩 when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in a strong bull market🤠🐂👇3
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes🌜 by supply security fears😟 as there is no substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors⚠️ so fear can lead to panic buying by nuclear utilities🛒👇4
Read 12 tweets
Mar 12
1) #Uranium underfeeding/overfeeding🍼👶 what the heck is that?🤔 I'll try to explain in a thread that eliminates as much complexity as possible using a "Vending Machine" as a way to keep it plain & simple 😀🧵⬇️2
2) Most #Nuclear reactors can't run on raw #Uranium that comes out of a mine in the form of #U3O8.⛏️ They need fuel called Enriched Uranium Product (EUP) that's turned into small pellets that are loaded into fuel rods which in turn get loaded into reactors⚛️⚡️⬇️3
3) Imagine there are special EUP vending machines set up around the world where #Nuclear reactor fuel buyers walk up to a machine, select Quantity/Grade of EUP fuel they need🔘 & then insert the required quantity of mined #Uranium indicated for their order🪙⬇️4
Read 10 tweets
Mar 6
#USA/#EU rely on #Russia's oil to meet 8%/27% of demand.😯 A ban on Russian oil means finding alternate sources to fill gap & moderate price rise.🎢 #USA & #EU also rely on #Russia for 20% of #Nuclear fuel supply.😱 A thread for U on banning that👇 .../2 wsj.com/articles/biden…
2) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed⬆️ ../3
3) A US/EU ban on #Russia's #uranium would require alternate enrichment plants in #USA & #EU to increase output ASAP.🏭 They've been in low demand, running with excess SWU capacity that's led to underfeeding & large secondary U supply⛏️ to lessen the #Nuclear fuel deficit.⚛️.../4
Read 7 tweets
Jan 15
1) With many #Uranium Explorers now actively drilling in #Canada's #AthabascaBasin⛏️ perhaps it's time⏳ for a thread on how to interpret drill data🗒️ coming soon in news releases.📰 Misunderstanding data can lead to missed opportunities💰 or unexpected losses.😟 Be ready!👨‍🏫.../2
2) #Uranium explorers drill rock core samples looking for signs of #U3O8 bearing ore.🧐 Rarely do they hit high-grade on first few attempts.😟 Geologists first look for visual signs in the core samples. Here's description from pre-discovery 2013 drilling at $NXE's Arrow👇 .../3
3) Visual inspection of core samples is just 1 of many steps taken to see if #uranium is found. Presence of radioactivity is best indicator☢️ so all cores are scanned with an instrument called a Hand-held Scintillometer to produce "Scint" CPS tables for each core interval.🗒️.../4
Read 11 tweets
Jan 1
Happy #Nuclear New Year!⚛️🥳 60-page #EU Taxonomy plan that includes Nuclear as qualifying for low-cost #CleanEnergy project financing 💰🌞 is available for download at this link:
👉 app.box.com/s/f7rgsninwhkf…

Fabulous news for #Uranium sector investors.🤠🐂
Main points 🧵 .../2
2) Covers construction and safe operation of new #Nuclear power plants for basically any function that helps to reduce CO2 emissions - generating electricity, industrial heat, district heating, producing hydrogen - as long as construction permit is issued by 2045 🌞🏗️⚛️ .../3
3) Existing EU #Nuclear fleet is also covered in the providing of low-cost financing for upgrades and modifications that will extend reactor operating life to maintain their contribution to climate mitigation, if authorized by 2040.🌞⚛️

.../4
Read 6 tweets

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