Thread by @HannaNotte

Many worry that #Russia might turn to #ChemicalWeapons in #Ukraine, as things go increasingly poorly for it on the battlefield.

In my latest for the @washingtonpost, I examine the (limited) options to deter/punish such a horrible scenario: washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/0…

🧵/1

The #USA/#NATO have few good options for deterring #Russia’s use of #ChemicalWeapons (CW) in #Ukraine - or punishing such use after the fact, since “the toolkit of punishments includes the very deterrents that failed to change Moscow’s calculus in the first place.” /2

I examine the lessons from multiple failures to deter #ChemicalWeapons use in #Syria, concluding: “It is hard to prevent a highly motivated actor from chemical use, especially if the deterring side fails to respond decisively to the first crossing of the “red line.” /3

(Side note: That's just my bottom line on #Syria. The issue of deterrence failures re: #ChemicalWeapons use in #Syria is a rather complex one, for instance examined here by @WQBowen @MoranCSSS & Jeffrey Knopf: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…) /4

So, what options to deter CW use in #Ukraine today?: More sanctions. More arms for Ukraine. Diplomatic consequences @OPCW. Shaming Russia.

But these are unlikely significant enough "to cause #Russia to rethink its tactics, should it judge the use of CW militarily expedient." /5

What about the US threat of an “in-kind” (asymmetric/mil) response? That likely looms larger for #Russia, though I argue “Washington’s sensible aversion to direct conflict with Russia would probably dictate restraint in its choice of any such response.” cnbc.com/2022/03/24/bid… /6

My bottom line on #Russia’s likely calculations on CW use in Ukraine: Moscow will “weigh the anticipated military 'value-added' of chemical weapons against a potential, likely cautious, US retaliation (asymmetric or military).”
Hence, the use of CW is not a forgone conclusion /7

An added complication, though: "Strategists who are desperate might make decisions in a heightened emotional state of defiance & vengeance, casting sober-minded cost-benefit calculations aside." See Russian pundits reacting to Moskva sinking as example:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1514766062771875851

/8

Should #Russia use CW, @OPCW could later use evidence gathered to enable court cases against complicit individuals (universal jurisdiction) & we might end up with Russia suspended from @OPCW. But this would hardly be commensurate with the horrors endured by victims of CW. /9