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May 18 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
Day 84 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Russia making some "incremental progress in the direction of the #BlackSea" near #Kherson & #Mikolayiv, per a senior US defense official

Russian also making some progress in #Donetsk
#Russia|n progress overall "fairly limited...a few kilometers maybe every day" per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n military offensives becoming smaller, more localized - US seeing "a shrinking of their offensives & their goals...using smaller units" per a senior US defense official
#Russia's military logistics woes persist - "They have not corrected their coordination issues...their communications are still not very efficient btw commanders" per a senior US defense official
#Ukraine forces continue to push back #Russia|n forces NE of #Kharkiv, with some Russian troops pushed back to just 3-4km from the border, per a senior US defense official
#Russia sorties - 225 in past 24 hours, with airstrikes focused on #Kharkiv & the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official
Aid to #Ukraine

79 of 90 M777 #Howitzers delivered and deployed forward for #Ukraine, per Ukrainian officials according to the sr US defense official

3 of 11 Mi-17 helicopters transferred

all radar systems delivered

+200 switchblade & almost 10 #PhoenixGhost drones delivered
#Putin's involvement in directing #Russia|n efforts in #Ukraine - "Cleary, he's the decision maker...We know that he gets regular updates" per senior US defense official

But official says US does not have clarity on the accuracy of the reports Putin is getting...
Flow of security assistance to #Ukraine- "We think they [#Russia] are certainly trying to disrupt that flow" per senior US defense official

But "no indications the Russians have actually hit any storage or weapons coming from Western nations," & nothing in past 24hours

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More from @jseldin

Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 20
"We're constantly monitoring the threat environment w/escalation management clearly in mind" per @PentagonPresSec on US aid to #Ukraine "it would be irresponsible if we didn't do that"
"As we work these pkgs, these weapons & systems that we're sending to #Ukraine...we're doing it mostly with an eye towards what does Ukraine need in the fight that they're in right now" per @PentagonPresSec

"The consistent answer that we get back is they need long range fires"
"Our focus is on making sure that we can advantage #Ukraine on the battlefield & therefore hopefully advantage them when it comes to an ultimate peace there" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 4 tweets
Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 20
"We don't have any indication of the use of lasers...weaponized lasers" by #Russia in #Ukraine, per @PentagonPresSec

...this despite Russian claims its used a new generation of lasers to counter drones
US assesses #Russia is behind where it wants to be as far as progress in the #Donbas, w/Russian progress slow, uneven, per @PentagonPresSec

Says every day there are "hamlets towns and villages that are changing hands" between Russia & #Ukraine
US @SecDef Lloyd Austin to virtually host meeting of the #Ukraine Contact Group this coming Monday - more than 40 nations expected to take part, per @PentagonPresSec
Read 10 tweets
Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 19
"The gvt of #Russia views the US as its primary adversary..." Kurtis Ronnow, deputy asst dir for of the @FBI's Counterintelligence Division, tells @USChamber during virtual briefing on #cyber
"#Russia's malign influence efforts are ongoing" & involve #cyber, other means, per @FBI's Ronnow
US officials "remain concerned" #Russian cyber criminals will target US businesses, critical infrastructure in support of #Russia's ops in #Ukraine, Mike Herrington, section chief of the @FBI's Cyber Division tells @USChamber
Read 13 tweets
Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 19
Day 85 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

"Russia's continuing their offensive in the northern #Donbas...but no major shift in territorial control by either side" per senior US defense official
"We continue to see the #Ukrainians continue to claw back territory north and northeast of #Kharkiv" per senior US defense official

#Russia|ns reinforcing north of #Kherson
"Weather's been an issue over eastern & southern #Ukraine" impacting #Russian naval & air ops, per senior US defense official

But #Russia also pulled back dramatically number of airstrikes around #Mariupol
Read 13 tweets
Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 19
ICYMI: #Britain's @DefenceHQ says #Russia "has fired senior commanders who are considered to have performed poorly during the opening stages of its invasion of #Ukraine"
Per #Britain's @DefenceHQ:

- LtGen Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, suspended for failing to capture #Kharkiv

- VAdm Igor Osipov, who commanded #Russia’s #BlackSea Fleet, likely suspended
#Britain's @DefenceHQ warns #Russia's Vladimir #Putin may be losing faith in Russian Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov

"Gerasimov likely remains in post, but it is unclear whether he retains the confidence of Pres. Putin"
Read 5 tweets
Jeff Seldin Profile picture
May 18
Pentagon downplays #Taliban efforts to build its own air force

"The relatively small number of former AAF aircraft believed to be in operational condition does not pose a capable military threat to regional stability outside #Afghanistan" per @DeptofDefense spox Maj Rob Lodewick
"With the exception of a pair of #Blackhawk helicopters, the former AAF aircraft that have been seen flying in #Afghanistan are old legacy aircraft that DoD did not provide nor previously sustain" per @DeptofDefense spox Maj Rob Lodewick in response to question from @VOANews
"The #Taliban will likely continue to focus the use of its limited air assets against anti-Taliban threats within #Afghanistan" per @DeptofDefense's Maj Lodewick
Read 4 tweets

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