Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Jun 1 12 tweets 10 min read
.@NATO allies surprised by #Ukraine's resistance vs #Russia

"Allies have certainly been impressed by the performance of the Ukrainian forces" @USAmbNATO Julianne Smith tells @GWUPMNS

"I think many of us were surprised by their ability to push back on Russian aggression"
"The level of of ... respect that you see across the alliance for Ukrainian forces right now is quite high" per @USAmbNATO
#Ukraine progress on the ground "not linear in all cases" per @USAmbNATO "We see moments where #Russia|n forces advance. We see moments where Ukrainian forces are successfully able to push back"
"Similarly, I think there has been some surprise across the alliance in watching the Russian performance" per @USAmbNATO

"#Russia is a country that is clearly having some major challenges" in #Ukraine... Russia's had to reassess, put its focus almost exclusively in the east"
"Collectively at @NATO I think we do hope & believe that #Ukraine will ultimately prevail" per @USAmbNATO

"The allies remain united in their determination to continue providing security assistance to Ukraine. I don't see anyone moving away from that mission"
.@NATO as an alliance has provided non-lethal support to #Ukraine but alliance leaving it up to individual countries to provide security assistance, weapons systems - "I don't see that changing" per @USAmbNATO
.@NATO-#Russia Founding Act - "Russia is in violation" per @USAmbNATO

"NATO allies collectively do not believe that the NATO Russia founding act now constrains decisions that we're taking as it relates to force posture in central & Eastern #Europe"
Despite US agreement to send new weapons systems, MLRS to #Ukraine the parameters of US aid "have remained relatively clear" per @USAmbNATO

As for systems being given to #Kyiv, "that's all evolved & changed over the last couple of months, I think, quite naturally"
Washington's ongoing message to #Ukraine - "We are not in a position to support you [Ukraine] w/equipment that can attack #Russia|n territory" per @USAmbNATO

Also, "NATO allies are united that NATO will not become a party to this conflict"
Endgame in #Ukraine - "From the US perspective our position is that Ukraine needs to make those determinations" per @USAmbNATO

"We do not feel like we're in a position where we can dictate the terms of any negotiation or any final outcome"
#Russia|n blockade of #Odesa-grain/food shortages - "It's a concern for all @NATO allies" per @USAmbNATO

BUT "I don't foresee any NATO role as of today" she says "We're having bilateral & other multilateral conversations thru the US-EU & thru the UN that's focused on that"
#Turkey's outreach to #Russia, offer to negotiate potential sea corridor for grains from #Ukraine - "We're skeptical that at this juncture it's it's going to lead to some sort of major breakthrough" per @USAmbNATO

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More from @jseldin

May 31
JUST IN: @ODNIgov issues "Best Practices" report to protect right of #Chinese Americans during US intelligence operations

Report finds "policies & procedures reflect an appropriate focus on the protection of privacy, civil liberties, & civil rights" BUT makes 4 recommendations
.@ODNIgov recommends

1. agencies/components "reemphasize the prohibition on conducting intelligence & related security activities based on race or ethnicity, to include those related to the granting or revocation of security clearances, in
their training materials"

(cont)
.@ODNIgov recommends

2. "All IC agencies and components are encouraged
to expand unconscious bias & cultural competency training to personnel involved in intelligence collection & security clearance processes"

(cont.)
Read 8 tweets
May 31
Current state of the #Taliban

Taliban has consolidated control over #Afghanistan, per @UN report released on Friday

41 UN sanctioned individuals are in the cabinet & sr level positions
#Taliban "have favored loyalty & seniority over competence, & their decision-making has been opaque & inconsistent" per @UN report

"Various Taliban factions are maneuvering for advantage, with the #Haqqani Network the most successful & influential among them"
Some fissures may be emerging within the #Taliban

"The pro-Pashtun bias evident in the composition of the de facto authorities & poor treatment of #Tajik & #Uzbek Taliban runs the risk of provoking defections from those quarters" per @UN member state intel
Read 16 tweets
May 31
ICYMI: Intelligence shows "The relationship between the #Taliban & #alQaida remains close, w/the latter [alQaida] celebrating the former’s success & renewing its pledge of allegiance" per report from @UN Sanctions Monitoring Team released Friday
Intelligence from @UN members "suggest that #alQaida has a safe haven under the #Taliban & increased freedom of action" per report "[AQ leader] Ayman al-Zawahiri has issued more frequent recorded messages since August, & there is now proof of life for him as recently as Feb 2022"
#alQaida-#Taliban relationship "underscored by the presence, both in #Afghanistan & the region, of alQaida core leadership & affiliated groups, such as alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent (#AQIS)" per @UN report
Read 43 tweets
May 27
Happening now: @DeptofDefense briefing @PentagonPresSec
#Ukraine requests for #MLRS - "We're working every single day to get weapons & systems into Ukraine" per @PentagonPresSec, saying #Washington is aware of the requests by #Kyiv

"We're in constant communication w/them [Ukrainians]..."
"I won't get ahead of decisions" per @PentagonPresSec, re the #MLRS request by Ukraine
Read 16 tweets
May 26
NEW: NO US troops fighting in #Ukraine but there is a defense attaché - a colonel - at @USEmbassyKyiv,
per @PentagonPresSec

Kirby adds, "US troops will not be fighting in this war in #Ukraine" and that @StateDept has not changed its position regarding not having military guards
#Turkey pledge to expand buffer zones in northern #Syria - "We're obviously very concerned" per @PentagonPresSec

Points to risk to civilians and to anti-ISIS operations by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF)
"We are in daily contact with our #SDF partners in northern #Syria" per @PentagonPresSec

Adds #ISIS while diminished "remains a viable threat"
Read 5 tweets
May 26
Day 92 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Now 110 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups operating in #Ukraine, most in the south of #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"We assess that #Russia has made some incremental gains...still is fighting for control of the town of #Lyman"
"We blv that #Russia|n forces have been able to seize most of northeastern #Sievierodonetsk" per a senior US defense official
"No major changes" around #Kharkiv, per a senior US defense official

#Russia|n forces still within about 10km of the Russian border
Read 19 tweets

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