#Ukraine is weathering significant attrition in the battle to defend #Severodonesk in the #Donbas.
Given the losses in lives and the relatively static front line, some are beginning to dismay that perhaps the tide is turning to #Russia.
That could happen. But it hasn't yet. 1/
Given the losses in lives and the relatively static front line, some are beginning to dismay that perhaps the tide is turning to #Russia.
That could happen. But it hasn't yet. 1/
#Ukraine is still winning the war strategically. It survives as a state & a people & has secured its capital. It has denied #Putin his ambition to seize the entire country & has forced Putin to fight extremely hard for a limited goal of seizing the Donbas, at which he may fail 2/
Operationally, Ukraine is nearing a grinding stalemate in the East. As we @TheStudyofWar warned in March, stalemates are bloody & dynamic at the tactical level. This is already on display in the brutal attrition battle for incremental advances in #Severodonesk 3/
Operational stalemate would not mean the tide is turning toward #Russia, however.
Fighting the Russian army to an effective standstill in the Donbas would be a huge victory for #Ukraine
It raises an important point regarding what success looks like as the war changes 4/
Fighting the Russian army to an effective standstill in the Donbas would be a huge victory for #Ukraine
It raises an important point regarding what success looks like as the war changes 4/
Ukrainian victory in this phase of the war wont look like the repulsion of Russian forces back to the border from #Kyiv
Russian forces have learned & regrouped. Putin clearly expects them to take the Donbas even at astronomical cost = far different from expectations in Kyiv. 5/
Russian forces have learned & regrouped. Putin clearly expects them to take the Donbas even at astronomical cost = far different from expectations in Kyiv. 5/
These factors matter. The initial shock of Ukraine's fierce defense has worn off. While Russian forces cannot fully overcome initial failures in their structure, preparation, etc they have settled in for an intentional & vicious battle of attrition. 6/
Unless Russian forces are destroyed (so damaged they cannot fight) or suffer a rout (disorderly collapse), they are unlikely to be repelled akin to Kyiv.
Instead, Ukraine wins by retaking its territory by force. Sometimes one village at a time. 7/
Instead, Ukraine wins by retaking its territory by force. Sometimes one village at a time. 7/
Forcing a halt to Russian offensive operations in the East (even a stalemate) would buy time for #Ukraine to regroup, rearm, & prepare a counteroffensive
The US & NATO should surge support to ensure it does halt Russian gains & can reset quickly for a counteroffensive 8/
The US & NATO should surge support to ensure it does halt Russian gains & can reset quickly for a counteroffensive 8/
In the south, the war has already entered the next phase. Ukraine has forced a limit of advance upon Russian forces & begun counterattacks
More importantly, #Ukraine is setting conditions via partisan warfare behind the front lines to destabilize Russian control 9/
More importantly, #Ukraine is setting conditions via partisan warfare behind the front lines to destabilize Russian control 9/
This partisan activity in southern #Ukraine looks increasingly coordinated & could --> a coherent campaign to erode Russian control, impose costs that attrite Russian capability & will, & foster resistance. These effects support future counterattacks to reclaim terrain. 10/
By tying up so much of his force in the fight for the #Donbas, #Putin has taken a risk in occupied #Kherson. One the Ukrainians are exploiting (as well as shaping by fighting hard to delay in #Severodonesk) 11/
Does that mean #Ukraine will win? It surely means they have a shot. Even now. And especially if they preserve the will - and America and NATO do the same. 12/
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