Tweet

@threadreaderapp

More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Aug 6

THREAD
Feelings of Deja Vu for a student of post-Soviet affairs: Are we back in the 1990s? Moscow's December 1994 intervention in an inner-Chechen conflict was the beginning of the end of Russia's Second Republic (after the First one of Febr-Oct 1917). 1/3

Moscow's September 1999 start of the #SecondChechenWar, against the background of, probably, #FSB-organized apartment bombings blamed on #Chechen terrorists, was the beginning of #Putin's popularity rise. Now, #Chechens are fighting on both sides of the #RussianUkrainianWar. 2/3

Ukrainian socio-economic life in the non-occupied territories has returned to levels of the 1990s. Russia's economic life will soon too be back to the 1990s. Chechnia may again become a headache for Moscow. More conflict in the Caucasus & Central Asia has become more likely. 3/3

Read 4 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Aug 5

@amnesty

THREAD:
The critique of @amnesty of the behavior of Ukraine's military is inapt for one or both of the following two reasons:
It can (a) be a critique of tactical decisions taken on the spot by Ukrainian army officers. However, @Amnesty is not a military agency or think tank. /1

The human rights NGO has neither the professional competence nor the public authority to assess the military necessity of, or putative alternatives to, an occasional stationing of Ukrainian troops in residential areas or near other civilian facilities. /2

Even more worrisome about the foray of the reputed NGO into military affairs is an absence of consideration of possible human rights repercussions of the publicly suggested more cautious tactical behavior of the Ukrainian armed forces. /3

Read 14 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Jul 19

@RichardPrecht

Kurzkommentar für Presseanfrage zum Juni-Aufruf "Waffenstillstand jetzt!" von @RichardPrecht @richprecht & Co. in @DIEZEIT & @zeitonline:
1. Verhandlungen und ein Waffenstillstand sind prinzipiell natürlich notwendig....
zeit.de/2022/27/ukrain…

@RichardPrecht

@RichardPrecht @richprecht @DIEZEIT @zeitonline 2. Die diversen bi-, tri- & multilateralen Dokumente, welche in den letzten 30 Jahren betreffs #Transnistrien, #Abchasien, #Südossetien und des #Donbas unterzeichnet wurden, haben jedoch weder #Völkerrecht wiederhergestellt...
@Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @UkrVerstehen @GSPSipo

@RichardPrecht

@RichardPrecht @richprecht @DIEZEIT @zeitonline @Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @UkrVerstehen @GSPSipo 3. ...noch den russischen Imperialismus gesättigt oder dauerhaften #Frieden in #Osteuropa gebracht. Die #Ukraine braucht heute nicht nur aus taktischen Gründen so schnell wie möglich so viele wie möglich #schwereWaffen.
@FiS_Heidelberg @StimmeUkraine @DUF_Forum @pw_portal @CPD_UA

Read 6 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Jul 16

@Konflikt_Sicher

Did the West provoke Moscow? Comment on Sweden's and Finland's forthcoming accession to NATO:
1. In principle, the forthcoming northern enlargement of NATO does not change much in the geopolitics of Europe.
CC: @Konflikt_Sicher @Geopoliti_org @GeopoliticsMag @GSPSipo @debates_eu

@Konflikt_Sicher

@Konflikt_Sicher @Geopoliti_org @GeopoliticsMag @GSPSipo @debates_eu @LiberaleModerne @TerekMedia @UkrVerstehen @AKHF_V @intercourier_ua @vneshpol @DipAcademyUA @LawUkrainian @ukraine_world @post_ukrainian 2. Sweden and Finland have, ever since the emergence of NATO, been informal parts of the Western military alliance. However, the conceptual and discoursive repercussions of this new NATO expansion toward the Russian Federation cannot be overestimated.

3. The accession to NATO of Finland doubles the length of the NATO-Russia border. Sweden's and Finland's entry into the alliance was explicitly warned against by Moscow's statements in 2021.

Read 5 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Jul 15

1. I wonder what the plan of the remaining sane parts of the Russian elite is: Their country is becoming more isolated and distrusted accross the globe, by the month. Russia is entering a major socio-economic and political crisis.

2. Growing tensions between the center and periphery of the pseudo-federation could lead to the country's break up, or even to a civil war. In many other countries, #Russians with known ties to the current regime are or will become stigmatized, as enablers of a genocidal regime.

3. Many #Russians also do not understand the rapidly increasing public role of Ukrainians with their deep grievances, in the societies of the Western world. #Ukrainians will make sure that the Russian elite & its children will feel uncomfortable throughout Europe & North America.

Read 5 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Jul 15

1. One line that seems to divide expert advice on how the West should behave in the #RussiaUkraineWar is that most area students recommend more military support for #Ukraine while many #IR & #politicalscience professors propose accommodation of #Russia.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…

2. Many generalists' underlying argument, whether im- or explicitly indicated, is that #EasternEurope specialists suffer from professional distortion. An emotions overload weakens their political judgement. Thus the generalists' texts are often educational rather than analytical.

3. #Areaexperts, in contrast, suspect the #generalists of suffering from a lack of empirical and contextual information. They are afraid that the generalists neither properly know nor fully understand (or are even not interested in) key peculiarities of the #RussianUkrainianWar.

Read 5 tweets

Share this page!

Andreas Umland

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?